Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list — be sure to select the current week, but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample of a player if you so desire. Also, note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smooth everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Receiver Targets
Cooper Kupp, of course, tops the list and should be ranked at or very near the top of the weekly WR rankings until Puka Nacua comes back in a month.
Jameson Williams is the biggest news, however, since he was barely a top 100 pick. He ranked sixth at 31.1%. Given his speed and play-making ability, he’s comfortably ahead of Xavier Worthy (did not chart given the five-target minimum criteria) in my ranks. If you can trade Worthy for Williams, do it in a second. Remember, Hollywood Brown is expected back beginning in Week 2.
Allen Lazard was Aaron Rodgers’ go-to receiver in his last year in Green Bay. He clocked in at No. 9 in Week 1. Mike Williams only had a couple of snaps and is probably weeks away from being playable. Even then, Lazard will start in three-WR sets. I’d bid up to 35% of my FAAB on Lazard. Minimum bid: 17%.
Even with Justin Fields at QB, George Pickens is a top 20 WR if he’s going to clock in well inside the top 20 in market share, as was the case in Week 1.
Isaiah Likely was the No. 1 tight end. He’s basically functioning as a wide receiver, so you should bid heavily if he’s available. I’d go 50% of FAAB, minimum. Money is overrated.
If you drafted Courtland Sutton expecting a 27% market share, you got 29% in Week 1. So he’s a hold for sure.
I don’t know what the Giants see in Wan’Dale Robinson but he matched Sutton and is widely available on waivers. I think they’re way better off with the far more efficient Darius Slayton and the explosive Jalin Hyatt taking the top off the secondary. But it’s not my team. I’d bid 20% on Robinson, who is unlikely to score TDs, like all Giants receivers (Daniel Jones has more pick sixes than TD passes since 2022).
Tyler Lockett looks like an ideal WR4 in PPR given he clocked in at No. 17. He was the only Seattle receiver who charted. It’s a mystery why no one wanted him. He was drafted as a boring bench player, but he’s a boring starter now. Boring can win when you’re filling out a lineup.
Brock Bowers is a must start at tight end if he’s close to 25%, like in Week 1.
Adonai Mitchell could have had/should have had 135 yards on three catches, including two TDs. But Anthony Richardson flagged those wide-open looks. He’ll hit them in the future instead of randomly hitting them with Alec Pierce. Mitchell and Pierce are the same for me. These are more boom-or-bust, 10% bids for me.
Ray-Ray McCloud and Greg Dortch are the little engines that could at over 25% each. McCloud’s day was masked by extremely low passing volume. Dortch has the roommate/friend narrative with Kyler Murray working for him. I’d say 10% for McCloud and 20% for Dortch.
Jahmyr Gibbs tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for targets and that’s very bullish if you roster Gibbs.
Running Back Touches
I got pushback in my Week 1 takeaways column regarding Rhamondre Stevenson being a top 10 RB now, or at least close enough to be in that bucket. He checked in at No. 2.
Jordan Mason was reportedly told he was starting on Friday. And there were reports that Christian McCaffrey will not play in Week 2. So Mason is about RB5, even if the 49ers opt to throw a lot more than they did against the Jets, who they just bullied. If Mason is a free agent, the McCaffrey manager has to get him, whatever it takes.
At 38%, James Cook was something no one really saw coming. But it makes sense given this is how the Bills played in the second half. His snap rate was also higher than in any game last year.
Najee Harris was one of 17 running backs with over 30% touches/snaps, just an incredible number. No other PIT RB charted.
That list also included supposed 50/50 back Tony Pollard, who is more like 65/35 with Tyjae Spears (13.1%), which wouldn’t even be an aggressive bid if he was a free agent.
David Montgomery just missed the 30% mark. Jahmyr Gibbs was 25%. Both are very playable. Montgomery, like last year, is the better draft value.
De’Von Achane, at over 25%, makes him a top 10 RB. Full stop. There’s no debating that.
Tank Bigsby is probably the top waiver add in a very weak initial run. My model says a max bid of 48% of FAAB. But I’d stick to 25% as I think that gets him half the time. But you know your league’s waivers better than me. So choose your range.
The other waiver-wire adds, potentially, are Jaleel McLaughlin (22% to 44% of FAAB after out-touching Javonte Williams) and Ty Chandler (22% to 44%, who has a better but older RB ahead of him in Aaron Jones). Consider these bid recommendations as the min/max in generic leagues.
(Top photo of Tank Bigsby: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)
