Bouncing back from a horrible start has been one of the Minnesota Twins’ defining characteristics for most of this season.
After stumbling out of the gates at 7-13, they had an American League-best 63-40 record from late April through mid-August, climbing back into prime playoff position with roughly six weeks remaining on the schedule.
When they woke up in Texas on Aug. 18, the Twins had a 70-53 record and their playoff odds were above 90 percent, according to FanGraphs, including a 40 percent chance to repeat as AL Central champions.
What has followed is a brutal 21-game stretch every bit as frustrating and unexpected as their awful start, with constant pitching implosions, sloppy fielding, mistake-filled base running and questionable strategic decisions.
Their record in the last 21 games is 6-15, even worse than the 7-13 start.
There is plenty of blame to go around. And while game-wrecking pitching blowups naturally generate the most attention and the coaching moves that backfire usually inspire the most anger, the collapse of the offense shouldn’t be overlooked as a cause of their ongoing free-fall.
Six shutout frames for Cole Ragans!
The @Royals lefty joined the 200-strikeout club tonight.
(MLB x @Chevrolet) pic.twitter.com/lIns7LOGWq
— MLB (@MLB) September 7, 2024
Playing what manager Rocco Baldelli accurately called “an unprofessional series of baseball” in Kansas City over the weekend, the Twins were swept by the rival Royals while scoring two runs in three games. They were shut out Friday and Sunday, and Saturday’s loss, in which they scored twice, is an example of how the lack of hitting has flown somewhat under the radar.
Yes, the manager’s heavily criticized decision to pull veteran starter Bailey Ober after seven shutout innings on just 83 pitches was curious at best. Yes, handing a 2-0 lead with six outs to record to the typically dependable late-inning combo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax backfired when they coughed up five runs. And yes, the leaky defense didn’t do them any favors.
But the Twins’ lineup also scored just two runs, including going scoreless after the third inning, striking out 10 times and drawing zero walks. If the Twins had scored another run or two, perhaps Ober would have been afforded a longer leash or perhaps the late innings would have unfolded differently.
This season across MLB, the average team has scored 4.3 runs per game. Yet the Twins’ pitching staff allowing four runs on Saturday received far more attention, and blame, than the lineup scoring two runs. That’s understandable, since blown leads of any kind are infuriating, but it’s far from the first time their pitching, fielding and strategy have provided cover for the slumping bats.
And the Twins’ lineup, which had been arguably the team’s biggest strength for months, actually started wobbling before everything else.
Following a 13-run thrashing of Kansas City pitchers on Aug. 13, the Twins’ lineup ranked sixth in both OPS and runs scored out of 30 teams.
In the four weeks since then, the Twins’ lineup ranks No. 27 in OPS and No. 28 in runs scored per game, with only the Los Angeles Angels and historically inept Chicago White Sox worse in both categories.
Delving deeper, the lineup’s underlying metrics have crumbled as well.
Twins hitters have been undisciplined since mid-August, chasing MLB’s third-most pitches outside of the strike zone and whiffing on the fifth-most swings overall while posting the third-worst strikeout-to-walk ratio. Before mid-August, they were middle of the pack in all three categories.
While Twins hitters are making less contact, the quality of their contact has also plummeted. Since mid-August, their average exit velocity is down 1.1 mph, their average bat speed has declined by 2.3 mph and their hard-hit percentage ranks 26th out of 30 teams.
Any prolonged, team-wide hitting slump inevitably involves some level of bad luck, but it’s tough to argue the Twins’ lineup hasn’t earned this one.
Reid Detmers, Gorgeous 73mph Curveball. 😍 pic.twitter.com/RHEPQK06hY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 10, 2024
Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been on the injured list during that four-week period, and any lineup’s overall production would be expected to decrease without its two best veteran hitters. But the Twins’ offensive struggles since mid-August go well beyond missing Correa and Buxton.
Max Kepler hit .116 with a .295 OPS in 12 games before joining Correa and Buxton on the IL with lingering knee soreness.
Royce Lewis, who boasted “I don’t do that slump thing” during his hot first half, has hit .190 with a .494 OPS in 24 games, including just one homer and an ugly 27-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He’s hitless in his last 20 at-bats.
Christian Vázquez came crashing back to earth after an unexpectedly great midseason stretch, batting .234 with a .484 OPS in 16 games, including zero extra-base hits and just one walk.
Willi Castro, an All-Star in the first half, has batted .173 with a .539 OPS in 24 games, striking out in 30 percent of his plate appearances.
Jose Miranda’s power has vanished, hitting zero homers with a .333 slugging percentage in 25 games, and totaling as many double plays as RBIs (three).
There have been a few bright spots during that time, with Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Matt Wallner each contributing an OPS above .800, but it hasn’t been nearly enough to sustain a consistent offensive attack.
Over the last four weeks and 25 games, the Twins’ four highest-paid players (Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Vázquez), who account for 53 percent of the team’s payroll, have combined to hit .178 with no homers in 93 plate appearances.
Lewis, Castro and Miranda, who stepped up throughout the first half, have combined to hit .202 with three homers and a .551 OPS across 262 plate appearances during that same period.
Add it all up and those seven core players (Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Castro, Lewis, Miranda, Vázquez) have collectively performed much worse than a “replacement level” baseline since Aug. 14 by producing -1.2 fWAR, batting .197 with a .240 on-base percentage and .268 slugging percentage over 355 plate appearances.
Just about every area of the team has struggled since mid-August. Some might even call it a total system failure. But while the pitching implosions understandably garner the most attention, and the defensive breakdowns and questionable coaching decisions can lead to the most frustration, don’t overlook the role the once-thriving lineup has had in the Twins’ struggles.
(Photo of Willi Castro: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
