Can Oilers coaching staff find magic again with the current defence?

The Edmonton Oilers have some issues on defence. Even more alarming, the solutions do not appear to be close at hand.

For a franchise all-in on winning the Stanley Cup, this is a remarkable place to be as summer fades to fall.

What can be done? Management plans to bring in at least one name via a professional tryout contract, and it’s certain general manager Stan Bowman will be checking on the other NHL teams this fall to see if any defencemen shake loose.

For Oilers fans, reality is setting in. This is us.

What to do? 

No matter what, the coaching staff (all are returning) will need to run at least a little on faith in the early months of the season. There are new faces, some of them unproven, and that will require patience and learning opportunities.

The hope for Edmonton is that April brings certainty, aided by the trade deadline. The reality for Edmonton is that there are few sure things. The motivation for unproven defencemen is NHL jobs.

Organizations often say there are opportunities available, but for a Stanley Cup contender like Edmonton, this is rare.

A large part of the fall can be filed under discovery for players, coaches and fans.

Ride the top pairing

There may be some temptation to break up the top pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard, but the consistency of this duo is more important than ever for the Oilers. Here’s a look at the duo’s minutes and results (five-on-five) last season:

Five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The top tandem owns a 61 percent goal percentage, which is beyond exceptional. Even considering Ekkholm-Bouchard with McDavid (expected goal share 64 percent, averaging 9:35 per game) this duo is elite.

Could the Oilers increase the minutes at five-on-five? Bouchard is going to get heavy power-play usage (3:32 per game last season), and Ekholm (2:07) will be a major piece of the penalty kill.

If there are more minutes that can be squeezed out of the No. 1 defensive group, especially away from Connor McDavid’s line (and helping the Leon Draisaitl or Adam Henrique units), the coaching staff may be able to gain an edge in 2024-25.

This is a better plan than breaking up the top pair, but splitting Ekholm-Bouchard is also possible if the team struggles when the two men are off the ice.

Trial and error

In the coming days, the Oilers are likely to bring in a couple of NHL free agents for a look on defence.

Names that have been mentioned from various outlets include Justin Schultz, Travis Dermott and Mark Giordano.

Hard news is difficult to find since Jeff Jackson took over as CEO, but there’s enough smoke to suggest two additions, with Schultz and Dermott the most likely.

If the Oilers extend a contract, veteran Giordano or young Gustav Lindstrom would be solid additions to a group in need of help past Ekholm and Bouchard.

Nurse’s partner

Right after the season, Oilers fans discussed an upgrade on the second pairing. In searching for options for Darnell Nurse on the second pairing, dozens of names were mentioned and discussed.

All conversations included the idea that no matter what acquisition would be made, the presence of Cody Ceci on the roster gave the organization a solid performance floor for the second pairing.

Ceci’s gone.

The coaching staff has veteran Troy Stecher and young Ty Emberson as options, and the PTO additions are likely to be defencemen who can play the right side.

Based on last season’s numbers and experience, it is Stecher who may get the early run with Nurse on the second pairing.

A third pairing of Brett Kulak and Emberson makes a world of sense based on Kulak’s difficulty playing up the depth chart combined with the lack of NHL experience from newcomer Emberson.

Josh Brown and the PTO group, along with the AHL Condors who impress can vie for the last spot on the defensive group.

External options

The offseason, like the regular year and the playoffs, has to run its course in due time.

This summer, the Oilers have been so busy fans haven’t had a chance to digest the Stanley Cup playoff run that finished just shy. Roster additions and subtractions, a big trade at the draft, a new general manager and a dual offer sheet represent the busiest summer since 2006 (another Cup Final, Pronger trade request and subsequent exit).

It may not be over.

The Oilers have an extreme need and may have enough assets to make a move if it is there.

Evander Kane’s health status has been updated from player and organization side, with even vagueness for fans to openly wonder about the way forward.

If Kane passes his physical, he will be a lock to make the team and perform on one of the top three lines. His physical edge gives the team a boost in that department, and a healthy Kane can beat the goalie clean from distance with his heavy shot.

If he can’t make the roster, and especially if surgery is required, it’s possible the organization will look to go the trade route as early as training camp.

What might it look like?

Armed with cap room (Kane on LTIR), Bowman may be able to pry real value from various teams looking to lower the cap for their own specific reasons.

Names that might be in play (based on their ability and the Oilers needs at right defence) include Alexandre Carrier (Nashville Predators), Rasmus Andersson (Calgary Flames), Artem Zub (Ottawa Senators), Colton Parayko (St. Louis Blues), Neal Pionk (Winnipeg Jets) and Cam Fowler (Anaheim Ducks).

Some of those names are not in play, others have varying forms of no-movement clauses, and some are coming off subpar seasons and may not be perceived as part of a possible solution.

If the Oilers have a sudden change in the cap situation, the interest level in those players and others like them will increase.

Errors of youth

The Oilers have an exceptional group of forwards, and a fantastic top pairing plus Nurse who should be 50 percent or better in outscoring five-on-five. That third pairing should have success if the duo gets to play against softer competition. The goaltending should be solid to very good.

If the Oilers get off to a good start, and Kane avoids LTIR, the club may want to audition some of the young options who will be available.

Max Wanner is lurking despite having just one season of pro experience. The growing pains of watching Wanner learn on the job in the NHL might be too much to bear, and the playoffs are paramount. Perhaps he would be overwhelmed by getting fed NHL minutes so early.

It’s also true that good to great NHL defencemen announce themselves early. Wanner is a pure shutdown type, it normally takes plenty of time for those men to figure out coverage and closing gaps.

Wanner looked very good one year ago. He’s a name to keep in mind entering Oilers camp.

The coaching staff

Last season’s Oilers defence performed brilliantly compared to established talent level, and much of the credit went to the coaching staff.

One of the keys to winning this season for Edmonton may come from innovation inspired by Paul Coffey and Brad Stuart.

This coaching staff has never seen Wanner, as an example. The Oilers have a bunch of defencemen coming to camp and more on the way (reportedly) via PTO.

Finally, the importance of an analytics department to this organization is coming into view.

The Oilers have had quality in this area before, notably Tyler Dellow (now AGM with the Carolina Hurricanes) one decade ago.

One of the confounding things about analytics is figuring out how much of the information available in-house is being used. From the outside looking in, the Oilers appeared to have ignored recommendations from the moments after the Andrej Sekera signing in July 2015 through the early days of Jeff Jackson’s time as CEO.

Michael Parkatti leads the group now, and there are signs of teamwork between management and the analytics department all over this summer. The acquisition of Emberson, the drafting of names like Sam O’Reilly, Dalyn Wakely and William Nicholl and the astute free-agent signings all suggest the scouting staff and the analytics department are marching in lockstep.

Oilers fans should be encouraged by this improvement that appears to be working across multiple levels.

The summer of 2024 will be remembered by Oilers fans as explosive in nature. The roster has elite talent and worrying issues.

Based on the procurement of talent over the summer, it’s reasonable to be heartened by what will come next. The Oilers are looking in the right places to find solutions.

Expect a quality addition to the roster on right defence in the days to come.

(Photo of Mattias Ekholm and Paul Coffey: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)