NEW YORK — The New York Yankees are trying to find the best ingredients for the “cake,” as manager Aaron Boone calls the club’s upcoming decision on who should be in the pitching plans in October.
There are likely 11 pitchers with guaranteed spots on the postseason roster. They are, in no particular order, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Jake Cousins, Tim Hill, Luke Weaver and Ian Hamilton. That leaves two possible spots for Marcus Stroman, Mark Leiter Jr., Cody Poteet, Scott Effross, Lou Trivino, Ron Marinaccio and Clayton Beeter.
Tuesday, Stroman made one of his final starts of the season in the Yankees’ 5-0 loss to the Kansas City Royals, a potential American League playoff team. Stroman allowed seven hits and two walks, struck out four and gave up three runs. His 1.43 WHIP ranks fourth worst in MLB this season. Only Washington Nationals starters Patrick Corbin and Mackenzie Gore and Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning are allowing more traffic.
Stroman’s 109 strikeouts are the second fewest for any qualified starter, with only Colorado Rockies starter Austin Gomber having fewer, though Gomber has also made one fewer start.
Stroman’s inability to limit traffic becomes a larger issue because he’s also one of the worst pitchers at holding base runners. According to Statcast’s pitcher base-advances prevented metric, only five potential postseason pitchers in MLB have been worse than Stroman at controlling the running game.
The Royals took advantage on the basepaths against Stroman. They avoided a potential double play in the third inning, with Kyle Isbel running on a Tommy Pham groundball to shortstop. Bobby Witt Jr. then hit an RBI single, scoring Isbel from second. Michael Massey stole second base in the fourth inning and had such a big jump that Austin Wells did not bother attempting a throw. This is a limitation of Stroman’s that is easily exploitable in the postseason.
Bobby and Salvy each drive in their 99th of the season to put us on the board! pic.twitter.com/whtdHZBzhV
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) September 10, 2024
If the Yankees win the American League East and advance straight to the Division Series, they would need just three starting pitchers. Cole could pitch games 1 and 4, which would come on normal rest. Whichever starter the Yankees use for Game 2 (at this point, likely Rodón) could pitch Game 5 on normal rest. There is no argument that Stroman is one of the Yankees’ best three starters.
If the Yankees don’t win the AL East and instead play a three-game Wild Card series, they will need a fourth starter for the Division Series if all three games are required. Given how the schedule lines up, the team’s fourth starter would likely have to start Game 1 of the ALDS in that scenario. That could leave the door open to Stroman or Cortes as one of the Yankees’ starting pitchers in the first two rounds.
But if the Yankees win the division, Stroman could find himself off the roster for the first round. He does not have elite stuff that would play up out of the bullpen, and he consistently mentions how process-oriented and routine-focused he is as a starter. Coming out of the bullpen would disrupt his process and routine.
The Yankees have made it clear that at least one of their current starters will transition to the bullpen. Cortes piggybacked Schmidt this past weekend in Chicago and shut down the Cubs’ offense. He profiles as the best option out of the bullpen because he neutralizes left-handed hitters and has elite command.
The Yankees owe Stroman $18.5 million in 2025, which could make his exclusion from the postseason roster awkward heading into next season. But as it stands, there doesn’t seem to be a lane that makes sense for him heading into October. There are possibly two spots available, so Stroman might make the roster by default, but how the Yankees would use him in any scenario other than a blowout in either direction is unclear.
What should the Yankees do about Leiter?
Leiter was the Yankees’ main pitching addition at the trade deadline. He’s been nothing short of a disaster since coming over from the Chicago Cubs. He has allowed at least one run in eight of his 16 appearances. He has faced 77 batters with the Yankees and allowed 23 hits, including five home runs, one of which came Tuesday to Pham. With the Cubs, Leiter faced 152 batters and allowed 27 hits with just two home runs.
Tommy. Pham! 💥 pic.twitter.com/EAr4NIN3Y8
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) September 11, 2024
“Still trying to get to know him,” Boone said of Leiter’s tenure with the Yankees. “There’s been a lot of good within every outing. There’s been some outings where he’s been really strong. There’s been some outings where he’s gotten hurt with slug, whether it’s the fastball, getting behind, not landing some of his secondary pitches and he gets backed into a corner. (Tuesday), you see the swing-and-miss with the splitter that he has. He hasn’t pitched in a few days. Just got to keep grinding with him and get him in positions to be successful.”
If Poteet, who’s rehabbing from a triceps injury, shows he’s back to normal by the end of the season, he could make more sense for the Yankees over Leiter. He has pitched in relief before and is being built up as a starter, so he could provide multiple innings if needed.
It would not reflect well on the Yankees if their main pitching acquisition at the trade deadline doesn’t make the postseason roster. However, fielding the best team is more important than saving face. With 17 games remaining, if he can’t figure it out, he shouldn’t be on the postseason roster. Including him would be hard to justify, though, as he is a low-leverage reliever who cannot be trusted in critical situations.
(Photo of Marcus Stroman: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)
