We’re closing in on conference play and even get one Big 12 game this week (and another nonconference game between Big 12 foes). Things are heating up and should only get spicier.
This week’s Big 12 chaos meter: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Last week got a little provocative with the Cy-Hawk thriller, Oklahoma State pulling a rabbit out of the hat and Arizona State, BYU and Kansas State all holding on for one-score wins. Kansas, Cincinnati and Houston ended up on the wrong end of nail-biters. This week’s theatrics have the potential to be just as good.
College Football Playoff picture
The Big 12 champion will almost assuredly get an automatic berth as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. Will the league get more than one team in? A check-in on the race after two weeks:
✅ Holding steady: Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona
📈 Trending up: Iowa State, Arizona State, UCF
📝 Work to do: Kansas, BYU, TCU, West Virginia
📉 Trending down: Texas Tech, Colorado, Cincinnati, Baylor
🚩 Longest of shots: Houston
Let’s assess the Big 12’s Week 3 matchups based on potential absurdity.
(All point spreads come from BetMGM — click here for live odds. All kickoff times are Eastern and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
High chaos potential
Arizona State (2-0) at Texas State (2-0), 7:30 p.m., Thursday, ESPN
Call it the Party School Bowl. Fittingly, Texas State made it a “blackout” game and will hand out 5,000 glow sticks to students. All that’s missing are red Solo cups and DJs. The winning team gets to skip class on Friday and float the San Marcos River.
what boss man said🗣️🗣️
⚫️⚫️⚫️ BLACK OUT⚫️⚫️⚫️#WackInBlack #TakeBackTexas pic.twitter.com/oDTTVXEYbf
— Texas State Bobcats (@TxStateBobcats) September 9, 2024
Arizona State, picked 16th in the Big 12 preseason poll, has been one of the biggest surprises so far. Getting a road win over the upstart Bobcats — one of the top contenders for the Group of 5’s Playoff bid — and entering conference play at 3-0 would be huge for Kenny Dillingham’s squad. And we’d have to start considering the Sun Devils as a factor in the top half of the Big 12.
Chaos potential: 5/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: Arizona State -1.5
West Virginia (1-1) at Pitt (2-0), 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
The Backyard Brawl is always ripe for chaos. The last time it was in Pittsburgh, this happened:
Pitt leads the all-time series 62-41-3, but since 1963 — when the series began alternating between Morgantown and Pittsburgh each year — West Virginia holds a 26-23-2 edge. Pitt transfer running back Desmond Reid said his teammates and coaches have brought him up to speed on the rivalry. “It’s hate,” he said with a smile. “They hate us, and we hate them.”
Pitt RB Desmond Reid has been caught up to speed on the Backyard Brawl.
“They hate us, we hate them.” pic.twitter.com/xok5YUC91q
— Nathan Breisinger (@NateBreisinger) September 10, 2024
Chaos potential: 5/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: West Virginia -2
UNLV (2-0) at Kansas (1-1), 7 p.m., Friday, ESPN
Are the Jayhawks tempting fate by going with all-black uniforms on Friday the 13th? We’ll see. This is a dangerous game against a legit Playoff contender. UNLV has been dominant and hung around with KU in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl last year, pulling to within one score twice in the second half.
Kansas must take care of the ball better than it did last week when Jalon Daniels threw three picks in the loss at Illinois. Falling to 1-2 would be troublesome in a year in which the Jayhawks figured to contend for the league title.
⚫️ BLACKOUT ⚫️
9.13.24 pic.twitter.com/nyfDzw3nyR
— Kansas Football (@KU_Football) September 9, 2024
Chaos potential: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: Kansas -7.5
No. 13 Oklahoma State (2-0) at Tulsa (1-1), noon, ESPN2
The Cowboys have a nine-game winning streak against Tulsa dating to 1999, and the Golden Hurricane lost at Arkansas State last week. So why is this game this high on the list? Because it’s the type of game the Pokes have messed around with in the past.
In the last five years, Oklahoma State has been favored by a touchdown or more against five Group of 5 opponents, according to TruMedia. The Cowboys have covered the point spread only once, against Tulsa in 2019. In fairness, they’ve won four of those five, with last year’s 33-7 debacle against South Alabama being the only loss. But if it’s a one-score game in the fourth quarter, don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Chaos potential: 4/5 🤯🤯🤯🤯
Line: Oklahoma State -19.5
Medium chaos potential
No. 20 Arizona (2-0) at No. 14 Kansas State (2-0), 8 p.m., Friday, Fox
Wildcats vs. Wildcats! This is a fun one for college fantasy football players: Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan on one side, Avery Johnson, DJ Giddens and Dylan Edwards on the other. K-State narrowly escaped New Orleans with a road win over Tulane last week. Arizona has been all over the map, dropping 61 on New Mexico in Week 1 (but giving up 39), then sputtering offensively against FCS Northern Arizona.
It’s a good test for two teams considered contenders for the Big 12 crown, but it’s not make-or-break. Another friendly reminder: Like last week’s Baylor-Utah game, this doesn’t count toward the Big 12 standings.
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Line: Kansas State -7.5
UCF (2-0) at TCU (2-0), 7:30 p.m., Fox
It’s the first proper Big 12 game of the year and a solid appetizer before next week’s main course as conference play begins en masse in Week 4. It’s also the first meeting between these programs, which each have one national title (TCU in 1938 and UCF in 2017 😉). A UCF win would only validate assumptions that the Knights will be a serious threat in the conference this year, and a TCU win should settle some of the anxiety about which direction this program is headed in Year 3 of the Sonny Dykes era.
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Line: UCF -2.5
North Texas (2-0) at Texas Tech (1-1), noon, FS1
Is the honeymoon over for Joey McGuire? Texas Tech fans are frustrated after the Red Raiders’ underwhelming start. And into town comes an “Angry Elf,” the nickname the late Mike Leach once bestowed upon former Texas Tech receiver Eric Morris, now North Texas’ head coach. Morris, who played for Leach at Tech, would love nothing more than a triumphant return to Lubbock with his rising Mean Green. If Texas Tech hopes to be any type of factor in the Big 12, this is a must-win.
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Line: Texas Tech -9.5
Colorado (1-1) at Colorado State (1-1), 7:30 p.m., CBS
Anyone who stayed up until the wee hours of last year’s double-overtime affair between these in-state rivals knows how wild this one can get. And it’s the first time this game will be in Fort Collins, Colo., since 1996 (it has been played in Denver or Boulder every year since). Colorado State’s last win in the series came in 2014. Colorado, after being humbled by Nebraska last week, needs this one to reverse momentum.
Chaos potential: 3/5 🤯🤯🤯
Line: Colorado -7
Low chaos potential
No. 12 Utah (2-0) at Utah State (1-1), 4:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is mum on quarterback Cam Rising’s status after he left the Baylor game with an injury. If he’s healthy and good to go, this should be routine. This will be the teams’ first meeting since 2015 and Utah’s first trip to Logan since 2012.
Chaos potential: 2/5 🤯🤯
Line: Utah -20.5
BYU (2-0) at Wyoming (0-2), 9 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Playing in Laramie is not for the meek, and BYU will have to play better than it did last week in the close win over SMU. But a 3-0 start has a nice ring to it if the Cougars can pull it off.
Chaos potential: 2/5 🤯🤯
Line: BYU -11.5
Cincinnati (1-1) at Miami (Ohio) (0-1), noon, ESPNU
The vibes are not great for Scott Satterfield after blowing a 21-point lead at Pitt last week. Now the Bearcats must travel to retrieve the Victory Bell, which the RedHawks reclaimed last year in Cincy, breaking the Bearcats’ 16-game winning streak in the series.
Chaos potential: 2/5 🤯🤯
Line: Cincinnati -3.5
Air Force (1-1) at Baylor (1-1), 7:30 p.m., FS1
Is it time to start the clock on Dave Aranda’s tenure at Baylor? If the Bears don’t win this one, it’ll start to tick a little faster.
Chaos potential: 1/5 🤯
Line: Baylor -15.5
Rice (1-1) at Houston (0-2), 8 p.m., ESPN+
The Cougars looked like a different team in last week’s 16-12 loss at Oklahoma, providing a tiny window of optimism in what is still likely an uphill climb this year. Last week, I had them as the only Big 12 team eliminated from the Playoff race, but I have adjusted that out of respect for that effort and the fact that conference play hasn’t begun.
Chaos potential: 1/5 🤯
Line: Houston -4
(Photo of Garrett Greene: Ben Queen / USA Today)
