If your current fantasy roster still even partially resembles the team you drafted, you’re surely in the minority. For the rest of us normal people, I’ll be using a data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s MLB waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure fantasy baseball statistics in regard to control, batted ball quality, and swing-and-miss ability. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap gems to grab now before the squares figure it out next week. At the very bottom, I rank my favorite available players around the diamond, as well as two-start pitchers and speculative adds.
(Stats courtesy of Trumedia)
Starting Pitchers
As far as pitching goes, the thesis couldn’t be simpler — do our best to avoid any bias attached to surface stats (outputs) by instead focusing on underlying metrics (inputs). The most important SP skills are the ability to generate whiffs (first list below) and limit hard contact (second list below). While showing up on one of these two lists may be noise, I’m generally treating an appearance on both as a signal to immediately pull the trigger.
Available Starters: Multiple >30% Whiff Offerings
*(min. 15 pitches, since August 1st)*
- Kyle Gibson, STL — Changeup 43.2%, Sweeper 37.0%
- Chris Flexen, CHW — Changeup 42.6%, Curveball 39.3%
- Mitchell Parker, WAS — Split-Finger 41.9%, Slider 41.7%
- Griffin Canning. LAA — Slider 37.4%, Changeup 37.0%
- Andre Pallante. STL — Curveball 35.1%, Slider 31.1%
- David Peterson. NYM — 4-Seam Fastball 34.0%, Slider 32.7%
- Cade Povich. BAL — Sweeper 33.3%, Curveball 33.3%
- Valente Bellozo, MIA — Curveball 33.3%, Sweeper 30.3%
- Albert Suarez, BAL — Cutter 30.7%, Curveball 30.2%
Available Starters: ≤.350 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only
*(since August 1st)*
- Samuel Aldegheri, LAA — 0.273 xwOBAcon
- DJ Herz, WAS — 0.319 xwOBAcon
- Dean Kremer. BAL — 0.320 xwOBAcon
- Rhett Lowder, CIN — 0.335 xwOBAcon
- Tanner Gordon, COL — 0.337 xwOBAcon
- Jack Kochanowicz, LAA — 0.343 xwOBAcon
- Javier Assad, CHC — 0.348 xwOBAcon
- Jack Leiter, TEX — 0.349 xwOBAcon
Even in many shallow leagues, the pitching supply is scarce, but I’ve been landing on Cody Bradford in most 12-team leagues. If he’s rostered, refer to the SP rankings below and work down the list. Do not be afraid to stream a reliever on a team playing seven games with a chance to win the majority of them — there’s no time to work off starter blowups.
Available Hitters: >107.0 mph 90th Percentile Exit Velocity
*(min. 60 PA since August 1st)*
- Jesús Sánchez, OF, MIA — 110.1 m.p.h. EV
- Jhonkensy Noel, OF, CLE — 108.9 m.p.h. EV
- Luke Raley, OF/1B, SEA — 107.9 m.p.h. EV
- Matt Wallner, OF, MIN — 107.5 m.p.h. EV
- Paul DeJong, SS, KC — 106.8 m.p.h. EV
- Mickey Moniak, OF, LAA — 106.7 m.p.h. EV
- Heliot Ramos, OF, SF — 106.6 m.p.h. EV
- Addison Barger, OF, TOR — 106.6 m.p.h. EV
- Grant McCray, OF, SF — 106.6 m.p.h. EV
Available Hitters: <25% Chase Rate And >.380 Expected Weighted On-Base Average, Contact-Only
*(min. 60 PA since August 1st)*
- Michael Conforto, OF, SF — 21.8% Chase, 0.464 xwOBAcon
- Spencer Horwitz, 2B, TOR — 24.1% Chase, 0.433 xwOBAcon
- Niko Kavadas, 1B, LAA — 18.3% Chase, 0.409 xwOBAcon
- Ben Gamel, OF, HOU — 16.5% Chase, 0.403 xwOBAcon
- Jared Triolo, 2B, PIT — 17.3% Chase, 0.396 xwOBAcon
Available Hitters: ≥18% Pulled Fly Ball/Line Drive Per Plate Appearance
*(min. 60 PA since August 1st)*
- Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL — 24.7% Pulled FBLD
- Michael Massey, 2B, KC — 22.0% Pulled FBLD
- Keibert Ruiz, C, WSH — 22.0% Pulled FBLD
- Zach McKinstry, SS, DET — 21.9% Pulled FBLD
- Connor Wong, C, BOS — 21.7% Pulled FBLD
- Rowdy Tellez, 1B, PIT — 19.5% Pulled FBLD
- Mickey Moniak, OF, LAA — 19.2% Pulled FBLD
- Jarred Kelenic, OF, ATL — 17.0% Pulled FBLD
Hidden Gem(s): We’ve reached the wholly pragmatic part of the fantasy season. No time for speculating too far ahead as we’re rounding third and almost home — it’s down to the brass tacks of winning categories…
- Top Overall Add — Taylor Ward, OF, LAA
- Batting Average — Ty France, 1B, CIN
- Runs — Mike Yastrzemski, OF, SF
- RBI — Parker Meadows, OF, DET
- HR — Pavin Smith, OF, ARI
- SB — Bryce Teodosio, OF, LAA
Relief Pitchers
Slight pivot on relievers the last month to focus more on targeting roles over skills. If you want to go deeper into all things relievers, I strongly suggest Greg Jewett’s weekly column — nobody does RPs better.
Relievers: Saves + Holds
*(min. 9 SOLDs since the All-Star break)*
- Aroldis Chapman, PIT — 11 SOLDs
- Tyler Kinley, COL — 12 SOLDs
- Tanner Scott, SD — 9 SOLDs
- Griffin Jax, MIN — 9 SOLDs
- Yennier Cano, BAL — 9 SOLDs
- Tyler Holton, DET — 10 SOLDs
Top waiver wire adds by position
Catcher
- Austin Wells, NYY — +10 teams
- Keibert Ruiz, WAS — 10/12 teams
- Alejandro Kirk, TOR — +12 teams
- Connor Wong, BOS— 12/15 teams
- Nick Fortes, MIA — +15 teams
First Base
- Ty France, CIN — +10 teams
- Spencer Horwitz, TOR — 10/12 teams
- Andrew Vaughn, CHW — +12 teams
- Andres Chaparro, WAS — 12/15 teams
- Niko Kavadas, LAA — +15 teams
Second Base
- Zack Gelof, OAK — +10 teams
- Otto Lopez, MIA — 10/12 teams
- Nick Gonzales, PIT — 12/15 teams
- Michael Massey, KC — 12/15 teams
- Brandon Drury, LAA — +15 teams
Shortstop
- Tommy Edman , LAD — +10 teams
- Geraldo Perdomo, ARI — 10/12 teams
- Bryson Stott, PHI — +12 teams
- Ezequiel Duran, TEX — 12/15 teams
- Thomas Saggese, STL — +15 teams
Third Base
- Addison Barger, TOR — +10 teams
- Mark Vientos, NYM — 10/12 teams
- Matt Vierling, DET — +12 teams
- Kody Clemons, PHI — 12/15 teams
- Jose Tena, WAS — +15 teams
Outfield, +10/12 Team
** MAKE SURE JASSON DOMÍNGUEZ IS ROSTERED **
- Victor Robles, SEA
- Parker Meadows, DET
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC
- Taylor Ward, LAA
- Matt Wallner, MIN
- Colton Cowser, BAL
- Kerry Carpenter, DET
- Heliot Ramos, SF
- Jake Fraley, CIN
- Lane Thomas, CLE
Outfield, +12/15 Team
- Mike Yastrzemski, SF
- Jhonkensy Noel, CLE
- Jesús Sánchez, MIA
- Victor Scott II, STL
- Josh Lowe, TB
- Randal Grichuk, ARI
- Alec Burleson, STL
- Mickey Moniak, LAA
- Lars Nootbar, STL
- Joc Pederson, ARI
Outfield, +15 Team/Only
- Bryce Teodosio, LAA (SB priority)
- Chas McCormick, HOU
- Johan Rojas, PHI
- JJ Bleday, OAK
- Jonny DeLuca, TB
- Jordan Beck, COL
- Grant McCray, SF
- Brandon Marsh, PHI
- Seth Brown, OAK
- Michael Conforto, SF
- Michael Toglia, COL
- Jake McCarthy, ARI
- Kyle Stowers, MIA
- Jacob Young, WAS
- Brent Rooker, OAK
- Jose Siri, TB
- Jesse Winker, NYM
- Luke Raley, SEA
- Joey Loperfido, TOR
- Masataka Yoshida, BOS
- Trevor Larnach, MIN
- Garrett Mitchell, MIL
- Jordan Walker, STL
- MJ Melendez, KC
- Leody Tavares, TEX
- Eloy Jiménez, BAL
- Alex Verdugo, NYY
- Derek Hill, MIA
- Kyle Isbel, KC
- Bryan De La Cruz, PIT
Starters
** MAKE SURE JACOB, DEGROM, CLARKE SCHMIDT AND REID DETMERS ARE ROSTERED **
- Spencer Arrighetti, HOU
- Bowden Francis, TOR
- Rhett Lowder, CIN
- Cody Bradford, TEX
- Matthew Boyd, CLE
- David Peterson, NYM
- Albert Suarez, BAL
- Nick Martinez, CIN
- David Festa, MIN
- Simeon Woods Richardson, MIN
- Cade Povich, BAL
- Jack Kochanowicz, LAA
- Samuel Aldegheri, LAA
- Ryan Weathers, MIA
- Caden Dana, LAA
- Luis L. Ortiz, PIT
- Joey Cantillo, CLE
- *GAP* — Think about streaming a RP
- DJ Herz, WAS
- Zebby Matthews, MIN
- Dean Kremer, BAL
- J.T. Ginn, OAK
- Davis Martin, CHW
- Colin Rea, MIL
- Adam Oller, MIA
- Julian Aguiar, CIN
- Valente Bellozo, MIA
- Cooper Criswell, BOS
- Yariel Rodriguez, TOR
- Mason Black, SF
- Hayden Birdsong, SF
- Frankie Montas, MIL
- Mitchell Parker, WAS
- Kyle Harrison, SF
- Michael Lorenzen, KC
- Ben Lively, CLE
- Griffin Canning, LAA
Relievers
- Porter Hodge, CHC
- Lucas Erceg, KC
- Aroldis Chapman, PIT
- Luke Weaver, NYY
- Jason Foley, DET
- Edwin Uceta, TB
- John McMillon, MIA
- Tyler Kinley, COL
- Yennier Cano, BAL
- Andrew Kittredge, STL
- Chris Martin, BOS
- Griffin Jax, MIN
- Dennis Santana, PIT
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top image of Taylor Ward: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images)
