No matter the service or outlet you use to play fantasy sports, there tends to be a number available to all managers during the draft: a player’s average draft position (ADP).
Some managers use that as a general vibe check on where to draft certain players. But sometimes relying too heavily on that one number can lead you in the wrong direction.
We went through Yahoo’s ADP and compared it to our cheat sheet to spot the biggest differences in player rankings. For consistency, we’ve stuck with the same categories used when comparing our projections to NHL.com’s earlier this week (goals, assists, power play points, plus/minus, shots on goal, hits, goalie wins, save percentage, goals-against average, and shootouts).
Macklin Celebrini, SJ
The Athletic: 285 | Yahoo’s ADP: 137.7 | Difference: +147.3
The gap between our projections and Yahoo’s ADP is the most glaring when it comes to Celebrini. There’s a massive disparity with this player when compared to NHL.com as well.
If you’re playing the long game and want a player who will help you for years to come, Celebrini is your guy. The 2024 first overall pick has an incredibly high ceiling and top picks tend to reach impact status faster than the average prospect.
But realistically, there are other factors to account for in Year 1 — how his game will transition to the NHL level, whether his environment will sink him or promote any sort of success at even strength or the power play, and whether he will be a multi-category threat out of the gate. There’s reason to think he will get there in Year 1 and be a favorite for the Calder Trophy, but does that stack up to other top-line players around the league? Those considerations should be factored in to determine where he actually should be drafted. The risk in that is that another manager will leap early for the name recognition alone, but there should be other effective picks in that 137-pick range to pick anyway.
Connor Bedard, CHI
The Athletic: 145 | Yahoo’s ADP: 49.8 | Difference: +95.2
We’re going out of order for a second because most of what was said about Celebrini applies here. The difference is that we know what a star Bedard already is while Celebrini has to prove it at this level. The Blackhawks bringing in some reinforcements should give Bedard more talent to support his development. Still, that doesn’t necessarily make Bedard a multi-category threat just yet. So keep that in mind, as tempting as he may be in the early goings of the draft.
Bowen Byram, BUF
The Athletic: 281 | Yahoo’s ADP: 147.4 | Difference: +133.6
With Byram, I wonder if his draft slot should be somewhere in the middle of our projections and Yahoo’s ADP.
Our projections are based on three years of data and weighed for recency. Those three years include time outside of the top four in Buffalo and limited PP1 opportunity. That recency features an early scoring boost with the Sabres and some suspect underlying numbers.
So what should you take away from that? There is the potential for him to be a perfect match with someone like Rasmus Dahlin with their strengths in mind. A new coach for the Sabres should help shake things up and get this team back to their offensive strengths as well. But Byram doesn’t have a track record for playing such meaningful minutes in a top-pair capacity which may continue to be a learning curve.
Jake Allen, NJ
The Athletic: 289 | Yahoo’s ADP: 165.3 | Difference: +123.7
Unless you pick a really iffy starter, second goalies can wait until later in the draft. And that’s what Allen is at this point.
Last year’s workload may look misleading for Jacob Markstrom, with just 48 games played, but he is a bonafide No. 1 goaltender for the Devils. Look at his workload in past years — appearances in about 72 percent of the Flames’ games in 2022-23 and 77 percent the season prior. The Devils probably won’t run him into the ground like the Flames did in 2021-22, but it’s a safe bet that he will play upwards of 60 percent of the games next season unless injuries get in the way.
Maybe Allen can push to be a 1B versus a true backup, but that still calls for him going later in the draft than his current Yahoo ADP.
Tanner Jeannot, LAK
The Athletic: 295 | Yahoo’s ADP: 181 | Difference: +114
Jeannot’s physicality and strength are a plus. And maybe in Los Angeles he can find the level that made him more of a household name in Nashville. But the thing to be careful about — even in a league that counts hits — is to avoid making that one category such a priority when most categories emphasize scoring. The Kings aren’t exactly the most potent scoring team, either.
Someone like Dakota Joshua can get overrated because of the physical elements of his game, but at least he has the depth scoring and offensive impact that increases his chances of bringing more to the table.
Filip Gustavsson, MIN
The Athletic: 51 | Yahoo’s ADP: 158.9 | Difference: -107.9
No one looks more underrated per our rankings than Gustavsson, but I can’t blame any manager for exercising caution here.
On an individual level, his last season was a real cause for concern. After impressing with 24.5 goals saved above expected in 39 games in 2022-23, his play cratered last season. In 45 games, he conceded about 7.5 more goals than expected based on his workload. The Wild had some defensive issues in the early parts of the season, especially on the penalty kill. But when the team trended back up, their 1A of a year prior didn’t.
Then there’s the crowded crease factor. Minnesota may open the year with a three-goalie rotation, so Gustavsson will have to turn his game around to earn minutes and validate our ranking.
Joey Daccord, SEA
The Athletic: 85 | Yahoo’s ADP: 174.3 | Difference: -89.3
The Philipp Grubauer experience hasn’t been the smoothest in Seattle. He lost his starting net a few times due to injury and overall quality of play. That’s allowed for Daccord to emerge as a very solid 1A. He was the better of the two goaltenders last season, and we won’t be surprised if that continues this season. While Daccord may not get the workload of a true No. 1 (somewhere around 55 to 60 percent of the starts makes sense unless Grubauer is lights-out good), he should be a reliable option for solid numbers.
Connor Ingram, UHC
The Athletic: 105 | Yahoo’s ADP: 144.3 | Difference: -39.3
We’re a little goalie-heavy today because there are so many interesting names on this list (and we focused on so many forwards on Tuesday). Like Daccord, Ingram doesn’t have a huge track record of success. Last season was his best yet, with almost 18 goals saved above expected, ranking 13th in the league among all netminders. If he can build on that and Utah can compete for a playoff spot (don’t forget how much progress Arizona made last year before everything hit the fan with the relocation drama), Ingram should check all of the goalie boxes a fantasy manager needs.
Darnell Nurse, EDM
The Athletic: 107 | Yahoo’s ADP: 142.3 | Difference: -35.5
A player like Nurse should serve as a reminder between fantasy value and actual NHL value.
Yes, Nurse makes some costly defensive mistakes — they were seen on a national level in the regular season and the playoffs. But maybe there will be fewer lapses now that a Nurse-Cody Ceci pairing will not be sent out into matchup minutes. If Stuart Skinner can stand tall, that should help take care of a category (one that should not be counted in fantasy sports, but I digress) like plus/minus. Sharing the ice with Leon Draisaitl’s line often (about 36 percent of the team at five-on-five last year) and Connor McDavid’s bodes well for offense. Add in Nurse’s ability to contribute to the physical categories like hits and blocks, and he makes for a solid mid-round pick.
Noah Dobson, NYI
The Athletic: 38 | Yahoo’s ADP: 67.6 | Difference: -29.7
It’s easy to underrate the Islanders’ offense. The team isn’t stacked with a deep pool of high-octane talent and stylistically has become more synonymous with being defensive stalwarts. But these aren’t the same Islanders of years past. The defensive strengths slipped when Barry Trotz departed, and their offense struggled under Lane Lambert.
The Patrick Roy Effect was real on Long Island and helped this team turn things around on both ends of the ice. That needs to be kept in consideration for players like Dobson, along with Bo Horvat and Brock Nelson. Judging by Yahoo’s ADP, all three have been underrated and the common theme may be the Islanders’ reputation. While Horvat and Nelson have bigger disparities between the rankings, I singled out Dobson to drive home how valuable offensive defensemen are for fantasy managers. He has the chops to be one of the best in the league and he’s a great pick for those in dynasty leagues.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Macklin Celebrini: Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
