Raptors mailbag, part 2: Masai Ujiri's future, Jakob Poeltl and last year vs. this year

Welcome to part two of the mailbag. Today, we’re covering this season and the future beyond that. In part one, we looked at the past and the offseason.

As always, questions have been edited for clarity and brevity. Thanks for all the questions, including the ones I didn’t answer in either part.

This season

I’m having difficulty figuring out how to think about this team. On the one hand, they have some exciting young players, and that brief stretch with Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett looked promising. On the other, it seems like they are pretty far behind the real contenders. What do you think success looks like for the Raptors this year? — Jack S.

I don’t blame anybody for feeling this way. I don’t think the Raptors have the talent in-house to do much more than sneak into the playoffs in the short- or medium-term, nor do they have enough draft equity/depth of young talent to put themselves in a position to trade for difference-makers. The only real leaps to make this year are incremental.

Let’s not lose sight of how important incremental improvement is, though — not necessarily in terms of win total, but individual and team performance. Can Barnes add scoring primacy to his vast skill set? Can Quickley add some more floor-general tendencies to his superior shooting? Can Barrett maintain his efficiency while leveling up defensively? Can Gradey Dick carry over his solid play at the end of the season into this year? Can the Raptors land some real developmental wins on the back half of the roster? Can they find a defensive style that doesn’t entirely depend on Jakob Poeltl? If there are enough “yes” responses there, the season is a success, because they will have improved the overall talent and potentially gotten closer to contending with this core or one altered by a trade.

If they can add some lottery luck to that mix, great.

What’s a reasonable expectation of this group for this upcoming season? Are they a lottery team, or is there potential for this team to make some noise for at least a Play-In spot? — Matthew L.

Based on the rosters for Chicago, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Detroit and Washington, the optimistic view, strictly in terms of the standings, is the Raptors fighting for the seventh or eighth seed. I’d predict 10th at this moment, but if you want to take the glass-half-full stance, I think that is it. It would also be reasonable for them to punt on the final two months of the season to obtain more lottery combinations.

If we assume Poeltl, RJ, Quickley and Barnes start, who is the other starter if the Raptors want to compete? Who is the starter if they want the best lottery position (as they say, play-in for what)? — Craig M.

1. Bruce Brown.
2. Of any quasi-realistic option, maybe JaKobe Walter, under the working theory that rookies generally hurt their teams, especially on defence. As you know, if they really want to prioritize lottery position, there are more important things to do (or not do) than start the wrong guy.
3. I think Dick is most likely to start.

Could you analyze as follows:

• Assume the most likely mid-December 2024 eight-man rotation
• Apply a reputable preseason ranking of each of those players at their most frequently played position (based on who they’re guarding, as a way of sorting positions 2 through 4) (e.g. RJ as xth best shooting guard or small forward depending on his typical defensive assignment)
• Do the same analysis for our mid-December 2023 eight-man rotation
• Contrast and compare the results. — William M.

REPUTABLE? FROM ME? OK.

Please take all these rankings with a big old grain of salt.

(very approximate league rankings by roles in parentheses)

As ever, classifying the Anunoby/Barnes/Siakam trio by traditional position remains difficult. Anunoby is listed so high because shooting guard is the weakest position in the league, with fewer 6-foot-4/6-5 players who aren’t ball-dominant playing big roles. Point guard and power forward, meanwhile, are probably the deepest positions, considering how many ball-dominant 6-8ish guys play/defend those positions.

I’m not sure there is a whole lot to learn from this exercise, but it was interesting going through it, nonetheless. It seems as if the starting lineup should struggle relative to last year’s, but last year’s group was already a slight minus in net rating. (It seems all those concerns about fit came to pass.) It’s possible that this year’s team, despite less established talent, will mesh better. The bench talent has been, let’s say, redistributed, but it is younger on the whole, especially when you get past the three players listed and Chris Boucher. Barnes and Quickley will need to be staggered routinely to keep the bench offence functional.

I sort of divide the team into players I’m familiar with (Dick, Barnes, Quickley, Barrett, Brown, Mitchell, Temple, Poeltl, Boucher and Olynyk) and those that I’m not familiar with (everyone else). Of those who I’m not familiar with, are there one or two names that may be pleasant surprises this year in that they earn some rotation time and make positive contributions outside of garbage time or mop-up duty? — Scott C.

I would keep an eye on Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead, two of the Raptors’ three 2024 second-round picks on the roster. It is silly to expect those guys to produce this year, but each has one NBA-ready skill — Mogbo as a grab-and-go guy in transition, Shead as a perimeter defender — that should give them a chance to contribute at some point. There are serious questions about both of their games, but I bet both get a look at real minutes in the middle third of the season or the moment injuries hit.

Where does Poeltl stand in the organization’s plans? He is an odd fit with a young core, but he could be a productive centre for this group for the next few years. — Anonymous

He will remain available in a trade only for excessive value, although that could change by the trade deadline. For now, his presence is crucial to allowing the young players to operate in a functional defensive context. If the front office sees what it needs to in the first three months and can make some moves in the reverse standings — also, if Poeltl has a market — him going somewhere in February makes some sense.

I’d say it’s more likely than not he finishes the year with the Raptors, right around a 70/30 proposition. After that, who knows?

Give me three reasons why tanking isn’t the obvious play for this season. — Justin T.

1. Flattened lottery odds.
2. The importance of putting Barnes, Quickley, Barrett and Dick in competitive situations.
3. You think they’re gonna out-tank more than one or two of the bottom five in the East? Really? I think the Pistons and Hornets could be fun, but yeesh.

The Future

With the changes at the top of the food chain, what are the chances the Raptors retain Ujiri after his current contract expires? — Martin R.

For those who don’t know what Martin is talking about, Larry Tanenbaum has sold some of his equity in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, formed his own sports group and purchased a French soccer team and a WNBA expansion team. Rogers and Bell have the option of buying out Tanenbaum in the summer of 2026, which is when Ujiri’s contract expires, per Sportsnet.

I’d say the chances Ujiri is still with the Raptors at that point is 35/65 (yes/no). At that point, Ujiri will have been in charge for 13 years, and the man who has helped him navigate the NBA’s inner workings will probably (a guess) be out of MLSE. Keith Pelley, the new CEO of MLSE, is a smart man, but the combination of longevity, new challenges and change will lead to a parting of ways. That’s my best guess, at least.

What would you say is the timeline for Ulrich Chomche to get meaningful NBA minutes? Raw is an understatement, but the potential is certainly very enticing. He could end up being the steal of the 2024 draft if the chips fall just right (or the next Bruno Caboclo if they don’t). — Brent M.

He is on a two-year, two-way contract. Those are incredibly rare. If he can be ready to play some backup minutes against NBA-calibre players in the middle of 2025-26, that’s a win. The Raptors are very much playing the long game here, as they were with Caboclo, albeit at a much more sensible spot in the draft.

What are the odds a Barnes/Quickley/Barrett/Dick core can become Thunder East? — Jonathan C.

The Raptors definitely don’t have a single player who is as valuable around the league as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Chet Holmgren, and most NBA executives would take Jaylen Williams over Scottie Barnes, especially when considering their roles.

The Raptors have interesting young players. The Thunder have excellent young players (and four above-average contributors no longer on their rookie contracts in addition to SGA.).

(Top photo of Masai Ujiri at the Paris Olympics: Marc Atkins/Getty Images)