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13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 2

14 September 2024Last Update :
13 insights fantasy football managers need to know ahead of Week 2

There are few things more exciting in fantasy football than Week 1. Every manager in every league is still filled with hope, and the anticipation for football builds all summer long. Nothing hits harder than the NFL’s return and with it fantasy football. Weeks and weeks of predictions, rankings and fantasy draft prep, and then all of a sudden a massive data dump of information that actually matters and turns some of our preconceived notions upside down.

This season, we were treated to a more drawn-out opening weekend. Baltimore and Kansas City faced off in the season opener — a rematch of the AFC title game. Instead of waiting until Sunday for more games, the NFL crammed in an additional day of football, a Friday night tilt featuring the Packers and the Eagles —two NFC playoff teams from a year ago facing off in Sao Paolo, Brazil, a city 5,376 miles from Green Bay.

Actual NFL games are the first time since the draft and free agency organizations have to tell us the truth. They cannot lie or misrepresent playing time, active lists, and touch distribution. A lot can change week to week in the NFL and teams will certainly adjust in Week 2, but we learned an awful lot from what Week 1 had to tell us.

There were 960 minutes played over the course of the week’s slate of games. We had surprises, disappointments and plenty of adjustments we need to make with our player and team evaluations. We do not want to overreact to Week 1, but we want to react to it and learn from it.

Every week, I will attempt to sift through the data and news, and find you the most significant insights you need to know for the upcoming week ahead.

1. Passing TDs were at a historical Week 1 low

Did it feel like there were way less TD passes than in a normal opening week? For the second year in a row, TD passes were at a premium. The only two QBs to pass for three or more were Baker Mayfield (4) and Derek Carr (3). Let’s hope for a lot more in Week 2.

2. The tales of Kyren Williams’ demise were greatly exaggerated

There was collective confusion and panic across fantasy football circles when Kyren Williams — last year’s RB2 in PPG — was listed as the Rams punt returner. Blake Corum rose up in late ADP, while Williams fell. After one week, it appears as though Williams’ late ADP price could not only be a steal, but shift leagues.

He dominated usage, with 21 out of the Rams’ 23 RB touches. Corum did not have a single touch. Williams looks to be in store for a fast start to the season, but his usage was not the biggest fantasy story line in LA.

3. Cooper Kupp 2021 déjà vu

2024 Cooper Kupp looks an awful lot like 2021 Cooper Kupp, at least through one game. He caught 14 passes for 110 yards and a TD. Kupp was targeted 21(!) times, a truly remarkable number. His target total ties for the most in a game since 2016.

Last season, Kupp’s preseason injury propelled Puka Nacua to an incredible start to the season and he eventually finished the year as WR4 overall. This year the situations are in reverse and Kupp will challenge for the NFL lead in targets per game.

The Rams are designing their offense around Kupp and featuring him, utilizing him on pre-snap motion routes at a higher rate than any player in football.

4. Two 2023 RB1s have added backfield competition

In 2023, Tampa Bay’s Rachaad White (RB4 overall) and Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne Jr. (RB3) dominated their team’s backfield usage and crushed their ADPs. Each player saw insane volume, with White finishing second (336) and Etienne finishing third (325) overall in RB touches. White and Etienne had insanely low teammate touch competition, with their closest competition having 63 and 51 touches, respectively — extremely low totals in an age of running back-by-committee backfields.

If Week 1 is any indication, both backs are in for a dramatic touch haircut. White was outrushed by Bucky Irving 62 yards to 31 yards, with the rookie averaging 6.9 yards per carry to White’s 2.1. While still insulated by his role in the passing game — White caught all six targets for 75 yards — it is hard to not envision a growing role for Irving.

It was a similar outcome in Jacksonville. Etienne and Tank Bigsby had the same amount of rushing attempts, but Bigsby soundly outproduced him in both yardage (73 to 44) and efficiency (6.1 YPC to 3.7).

5. Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown were not the only Week 1 fantasy winners in Philly

Barkley was awesome in his Philly debut, finishing with 132 combined yards and 3 TDs. His 33.2 PPR points led all fantasy RBs. Brown finished as WR7 on the week, catching five passes on 10 targets and finishing with 119 yards and a TD. But if Week 1 was any indicator, Devonta Smith could be in for a career year.

Smith being utilized heavily in the slot in a Kellen Moore offense is a huge development. Last season, he predominantly played on the outside and only had a slot rate of 32.4% (per Fantasy Points Data). The past two slot leaders in Kellen Moore offenses were Keenan Allen in 2023 and CeeDee Lamb in 2022 — they went onto finish as WR8 and WR5, respectively.

6. J.K. Dobbins: LA Story

Per NextGen Stats, Dobbins hit 19.92 mph on a 46-yard run in Sunday’s win over Las Vegas, trailing only Barkley for the fastest run of the week at the RB position. He later scored on a 12-yard rush, finishing with 135 rushing yards and adding three receptions. Dobbins is mixing in with another former Raven, Gus Edwards, but the comeback story is already in full effect in LA.

Dobbins has suffered multiple major injuries — his 2023 season ended with a torn Achilles and his 2021 season ended with a torn ACL. But for as long as Dobbins can stay healthy, he has a prominent role in a run-first offense behind a strong OL. This is a feel-good story that also feels good for your fantasy lineup.

7. We have some role clarity on the Houston Texans WR room

Stefon Diggs caught two TD passes, Nico Collins paced the Texans with 117 receiving yards, and Tank Dell added three catches for 40 yards. It appears as though Diggs will be the lowest ADOT WR of the “Big Three” by a considerable margin. Diggs finished with a mere 3.2% air yards share, with Dell and Collins dominating the category. This was the most aggressively drafted WR room in fantasy, ADP wise. We will see if this usage holds up in Week 2.

8. Promising usage for Ja’Marr Chase?

The Ja’Marr Chase contract dispute is still ongoing, but after a few days of holdout fears, he did, in fact, play in Week 1. Chase’s performance was disappointing, scoring only 12.2 PPR points with 6 targets, 6 catches and 62 receiving yards.

However, the day was not a total loss for Chase’s fantasy managers. He lined up in the slot 38% of the time, a significant development for a player who has never exceeded 25% slot usage in any season of his career. Chase set career highs with 100 catches and 145 targets last season, numbers that could increase with more manufactured looks in the slot.

9. Jameson Williams third-year breakout?

Williams stole the show in Detroit’s 26-20 win over the Rams. He had a career-high 121 receiving yards, set another career high with nine targets, and tied his personal best with five catches. He also added a 14-yard run. His electrifying 52-yard TD reception in the third quarter was the icing on the cake.

Fantasy managers have been waiting a long time for a game like this from the former No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. This performance feels like the start of something bigger and not just a one-off.

Most importantly for his role moving forward, Williams played 85% of the Lions’ snaps after failing to exceed 70% in any game in 2023. If Williams can exceed 100 targets and maintain this snap share for an entire season, then he could become this year’s Nico Collins — a third-year breakout who challenges for Top 15 WR scoring numbers.

10. Joe Mixon stole the show in Houston

Mixon overshadowed the WRs and QB C.J. Stroud in Week 1. In a hard fought 29-27 AFC South win over Indianapolis, Mixon rushed a career-high 30 times, finishing with 159 rushing yards and a TD. He was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week.

Bobby Slowik and Demeco Ryans finally have their back, and Mixon provides another added layer to the Houston.

OC Bobby Slowik is garnering a sterling reputation as a play caller. Houston’s 417 yards of total offense was the second-highest total in Week 1.

11. A rough start for the “Chosen One” at WR

Marvin Harrison Jr. was the highest drafted rookie WR ever in redraft ADP by a considerable margin, but his debut performance was one of the biggest disappointments of the Week 1 slate. His final stat line was abysmal: 1/4/0 on three targets. Yikes! Kyler Murray did miss him on what would have been a wide open deep look (and probable TD) late in the game. The underlying metrics were terrible as well.

All eyes in fantasy football will be on MHJ in the Week 2 home opener against the Rams. We could all really use a get right game. Please?

12. Baltimore leads the NFL in 12 personnel

Isaiah Likely shined on Thursday night, stealing the show with nine catches for 111 yards. He scored a 49-yard TD with one of the nastiest jukes of the week. Mark Andrews’ production was non existent, but there will be better days ahead.

Dating back to last season, Likely has now scored 18 or more PPR points in four out of his past six regular season games. Andrews averaged 13.5 PPG in 2023 — fifth among all TEs — in his first season under Todd Monken. It would make sense for Baltimore to play both players at once, right? Well it seems like Monken agrees.

Baltimore ran 12 personnel at a higher rate than any team in the league in Week 1. They lined up in a two-TE set 52.7% of the time. Last season, the Ravens ran 11 personnel 64% of the time. There seems to be a dramatic shift, and Likely’s involvement in the offense is here to stay.

13. Jordan Mason — a tough sight for the “I don’t handcuff” crowd

Christian McCaffrey missed the Week 1 opener against the Jets with a calf issue. It didn’t matter. Backup Jordan Mason was terrific, rushing for 148 yards and a TD. McCaffrey looks set to miss this week as well, and fantasy managers who have Mason on their rosters should expect another strong game. Per NextGen Stats, Mason faced a stack box on 50% of his carries and still managed to feast on a strong Jets front seven.

BONUS! The Giants are in big trouble and Daniel Jones’ days are numbered

Minnesota destroyed New York 28-6. Jones finished with no TD passes, a 52.4% completion percentage and 2 interceptions — one of which resulted in a pick 6.

(Top photo of J.K. Dobbins: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

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