PHILADELPHIA — It took 15 minutes Friday night for Aaron Nola to unravel. It felt quicker than that because he did not permit a hit in the first four innings. He was not his sharpest. But he was effective. Then, in the fifth inning, he allowed six runs on two three-run homers. Those 15 minutes soured everything.
“I left some bad pitches over the plate,” Nola said after an 11-3 thumping. “I mean, two hanging curveballs.”
This was the first September game ever played between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets with both in playoff position. It ended with the Phillies using an infielder, Kody Clemens, to pitch. That is because Nola could not complete five innings for the second straight start. He handed Rob Thomson the ball with one out in the fourth.
It was a bad night.
The Phillies are charging toward another October with postseason baseball in South Philly, and the Mets potentially being involved is a twist. The National League East isn’t clinched yet, but the Mets are just focused on earning a playoff berth as a wild card. The Phillies have the best record in the sport.
If anything, they felt a little better about the bigger picture when Friday ended. J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber were back on the field without issues. And Alec Bohm, who has not played for two weeks with a strained left hand, packed his bags for a trip to the minors. He will begin a two-game rehab assignment with Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Saturday. The Phillies intend to activate him on Monday.
“He feels good,” Thomson said. “He feels confident. So that’s good.”
Nola did not feel good about his night. He had never surrendered two three-run homers in a start, let alone one inning. He was the first Phillies pitcher to allow two three-run homers in an inning since Connor Brogdon in 2021.
September has always been Nola’s worst month. His career ERA is higher in September than in any other month. Before the Phillies broke through in 2022, Nola’s September swoons epitomized the organization’s shortcomings. But he’s proven he can rise to bigger October moments in the past two postseasons.
The finish isn’t always pretty.
Nola had a similar stretch to this one last September. He could not complete five innings in three consecutive starts from Sept. 2-15, 2023. He had a 5.47 ERA in five starts last September. That whole season was a slog, then Nola delivered in October.
A two-start hiccup this September has raised Nola’s ERA to 3.62. That ranks 22nd among the 47 pitchers with 120 innings in the National League.
Nola, of course, expects better. So do the Phillies.
“I just got to eliminate the big inning,” Nola said. “Obviously, the fifth inning was a big inning, and it spiraled too much. … I’m just going to keep doing what I usually do and try to finish as best as I can. Flush this one quick and get a good week on to my next outing. That’s really all I can do.”
When asked about his confidence in Nola recapturing his form before October, Thomson did not waver: “I have no concern. I mean, we’re not in. I’ll say that until we’re in. But I think his performance in October has shown that he can bounce back.”
“I have no concern.”
Rob Thomson says he has more than enough confidence in Aaron Nola’s ability to bounce back in time for the postseason. pic.twitter.com/Ov2NMacyE5
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) September 14, 2024
The difference this time is the Phillies have various scenarios to consider. The Phillies, provided they have a first-round bye, will have five days of inaction to align their rotation. Nola is better with some extra rest. Maybe that factors into how they arrange the rotation.
There is another variable to consider: Cristopher Sánchez, who would start either a Game 3 or 4, has fared much better at Citizens Bank Park than on the road. His home ERA (2.11) is more than three runs lower than his road mark (5.13). He’s pitched 30 more innings at home this season. Maybe it’s nothing more than a coincidence; Sánchez was worse at home in 2023 than on the road. But his 2.11 home ERA ranks fourth among all MLB pitchers with at least 10 home starts this season.
Since Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004, the Phillies have had two starters with lower home ERAs: Zack Wheeler’s 1.85 in 2022 and Cliff Lee’s 1.94 in 2011. (Wheeler is right there again in 2024 with a 2.31 home ERA.)
It’s compelling enough to at least make the Phillies think. Team officials have said that type of decision is not something at the forefront of daily discussions. They’ll have time later this month, once the postseason bid is sealed, to contemplate October.
But the Phillies have been impressed by Sánchez’s stamina; his fastball velocity in two starts this month is 95.8 mph. He averaged 94 mph in July and August. He is throwing harder now than he has all season. He has cruised past his previous high in innings without showing any side effects.
“He’s got a rubber arm,” Thomson said earlier this week. “He’s in tremendous shape, and he’s a lot stronger than he’s ever been. Our strength and conditioning and our nutrition people have really done a good job. He’s done a good job maintaining his weight, and that’s a huge deal for him.”
Slotting Sánchez in Game 2 would enable him to pitch at home. It would also separate the righties and lefties in the Phillies’ rotation. But that might be too extreme a correction. Nola is in the first year of a $172 million contract. He’s the club’s longest-tenured player. The Phillies have an enormous amount of faith in him.
When they have had a choice, he has been their Game 2 starter. He made all of his 2023 postseason starts at home and pitched to a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings.
That counts for something, too.
These qualify as first-world problems for the Phillies. They know their four postseason starters. All four of them have been dominant for certain stretches this season. Most teams heading to October cannot boast the same situation.
Until then, it’s about getting there in the best shape possible. Kolby Allard will return to start Saturday; the Phillies will demote righty reliever Max Lazar to clear roster space. The Phillies will rearrange lesser pieces in the next two weeks to ensure their top pitchers are fresh.
If the Phillies stay in rotation, Nola could have as many as three more starts. He’ll have to be better than he was Friday night with a packed crowd and a higher-stakes atmosphere.
“I think,” Thomson said, “the first two innings took its toll on him.”
(Photo: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
