Ravens-Raiders key matchups and subplots, plus a prediction: First-and-10

14 September 2024Last Update :
Ravens-Raiders key matchups and subplots, plus a prediction: First-and-10

The Baltimore Ravens returned home from last week’s season-opening road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the wee hours of Friday morning. Safety Kyle Hamilton estimated it was 5 a.m. when he got into bed.

It was much later than that when he was finally able to fall asleep.

“I couldn’t sleep,” Hamilton said Wednesday. “I didn’t feel like I played well, and I’m like, ‘I cannot wait to get back out there on Sunday.’ I literally dreamt about the Raiders game — going out there, making plays and stuff like that. It makes you that much more hungry. I feel like a lot of guys are in that same thought process with it.”

For all the talk about Isaiah Likely’s toe and the wild ending of Baltimore’s 27-20 loss to Kansas City, the performance of the offensive line and Lamar Jackson’s willingness to run, there was a much lesser-discussed aspect of the Ravens’ defeat. Some of their top defensive players struggled on a day when Baltimore needed to be in top form to beat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Hamilton acknowledged he blew his coverage on Xavier Worthy’s game-winning 35-yard touchdown catch early in the fourth quarter. He finished the game with three total tackles. Middle linebacker Roquan Smith had an interception that set up a late second-quarter Baltimore field goal. Otherwise, he had one of his worst games as a Raven and was a step behind the Chiefs for much of the night. He said immediately after the game that he needs to play better. Defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike and cornerback Marlon Humphrey also had relatively quiet openers.

If the Ravens defense is going to be one of the top units in the league like it was last year, it’s going to need its top players to lead the way. The acknowledgment of that not happening last week sets the tone for Sunday’s home opener against the also 0-1 Raiders.

Baltimore’s defense has the look of a motivated group, intent on righting its wrongs from last week and playing more in the manner it expects.

“Excited to go back out this weekend and make up for it,” Hamilton said. “There was a lot of good stuff on that film to learn from, and like I just said, it’s a week-to-week league, and I think we’re moving on.”

The Raiders don’t present the same offensive challenges as the Chiefs, but there’s plenty there that demands the Ravens’ attention. Quarterback Gardner Minshew II beat the Ravens in M&T Bank Stadium as a member of the Indianapolis Colts last year. Davante Adams is one of the top wide receivers in football. And the Raiders’ young tight end duo of Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer presents matchup issues.

“They pride themselves on physicality and so do we,” Smith said. “It will be a good one.”

During game weeks, we’ll examine some of the storylines, matchups and questions the Ravens face heading into the contest. This week’s first-and-10:

1. The prominent topic around the Ravens all week has been Jackson’s 16 runs in Week 1 — his most in a game since he had 16 in a late November 2021 contest against the Cleveland Browns — and whether that’s a sustainable recipe. The problem with the narrative is it suggests that Jackson running that much was the game plan. Jackson always has the green light to take off, but his number of runs was mostly a reflection of how badly he wanted to beat the Chiefs and take some pressure off an inexperienced offensive line. If the Ravens need Jackson to carry the ball 16 times or more to beat the Raiders, there will be far bigger questions about Baltimore’s offense next week. Jackson, by the way, averaged just over nine runs per game last year.

2. Mark Andrews has played in 72 regular-season games since the start of 2019, when the then-second-year tight end became one of Jackson’s favorite targets. During that span, he’s gotten two targets or fewer only three times in a game. It happened in October 2022 against the Browns, November 2023 against the Cincinnati Bengals and last week. The Bengals game can be disregarded because Andrews broke his fibula in the first quarter. Andrews played 59 snaps last week against the Chiefs and had two catches for 14 yards. Kansas City focused on taking Andrews away, bracketing him at different points. Andrews’ quiet game coincided with the best performance of Likely’s career. It’s conceivable that Andrews’ slow start was a byproduct of a disjointed training camp, as he missed time with a leg strain and also got into a major car accident. What would be surprising is if Andrews isn’t a much bigger factor this week. Jackson knows how badly the perennial Pro Bowl tight end wants opportunities to contribute.

3. When Ronnie Stanley last lined up across from Maxx Crosby, it produced one of the most difficult games of Stanley’s career. In the 2021 season opener on “Monday Night Football,” Crosby terrorized the Ravens with two sacks, five quarterback hits and 13 quarterback pressures. Much of his damage came when matched up against right tackle Alejandro Villanueva, but Crosby had his way with Stanley, too, as did the Raiders’ other edge rusher at the time, Yannick Ngakoue. Stanley did not play again in 2021, opting for another surgery on his ankle. Last week, Stanley looked as healthy as he’s been in a while. He may not see a ton of Crosby, who lines up more across from the right tackle. However, it will be a good opportunity for Stanley to continue to distance himself from his ankle issues.

4. Patrick Mekari will likely bear the brunt of the relentless Crosby, but he’ll probably get plenty of help. Coach John Harbaugh confirmed earlier in the week that the plan is to stick with Mekari as the starting right tackle. However, he also said the team is committed to working in rookie second-round pick Roger Rosengarten. He played 20 snaps in Week 1 compared to 60 for Mekari. It will be interesting to see whether the Ravens have enough faith in Rosengarten to rotate him in, knowing that will likely mean a matchup with Crosby.

5. Kansas City barely came after Jackson in Week 1, blitzing him on only 21 percent of his dropbacks. Patrick Graham’s Raiders defense was one of the least aggressive units in football last season when it came to blitzing. Yet, in Week 1, the Raiders sent an extra rusher at Justin Herbert on nearly 36 percent of his dropbacks. Jackson and the Ravens’ inexperienced offensive line might get tested Sunday in a far different manner than what they saw against the Chiefs.

6. It was assumed for much of the week that veteran outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy (broken orbital) would be sidelined Sunday. Yet, he returned to practice Friday and is considered questionable for the game. Rookie Adisa Isaac (hamstring) also practiced this week, although he’s considered a longer shot to play. If both Van Noy and Isaac don’t play, it would leave Baltimore with Odafe Oweh, David Ojabo, Tavius Robinson and Malik Harrison on the edge. It also could mean the Ravens use Harrison exclusively on the outside and keep starting weakside linebacker Trenton Simpson on the field more. The Ravens do have other options. They could use a practice squad elevation on outside linebacker Joe Evans. They also could give Madubuike some snaps on the edge.

7. It was in Week 3 last year when Minshew went into M&T Bank Stadium and led the Colts to an overtime victory over the Ravens. Minshew wasn’t the biggest factor in that game. The Colts’ running game and two Baltimore turnovers were. Still, the Ravens have plenty of respect for Minshew, who has thrown three touchdown passes and no interceptions in two career starts against them. The Ravens have sacked Minshew 10 times, but he avoided making game-changing mistakes last year.

8. The Ravens haven’t typically shadowed the opponent’s top receiver with their top cover guy, partly because they feel it gives away what coverage they’re in. Adams, though, could force the Ravens out of their comfort zone. At the very least, defensive coordinator Zach Orr will likely be forced to give Adams extra attention. Adams had a relatively quiet 2024 debut with five catches (on six targets) for 59 yards. Minshew averaged a league-low 4.5 air yards per attempt last week. It stands to reason he’ll take more shots Sunday.

9. Last week was a banner one for NFL kickers, as they went 21-of-23 on attempts from 50-plus yards. One of the misses belonged to Justin Tucker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history. Tucker has struggled from distance in recent years at a time when kickers are making 50-plus yarders look more routine than ever. Tucker, who was wide left on a 53-yard attempt against the Chiefs, has made just one of his last six from 50-plus yards and is 10-for-20 from that distance since the start of 2022. It wasn’t too long ago when it felt like Baltimore had three points in its pocket after it crossed midfield. That hasn’t recently been the case. Regardless, the Ravens will still feel good about their chances for points when Tucker is trotting onto the field. The same goes for the Raiders with Daniel Carlson, the fifth-most accurate kicker in NFL history.

10. The Ravens will have until 4 p.m. ET Saturday to make roster moves, and one is obvious. With only two running backs on their 53-man roster, the Ravens will likely use another elevation on veteran back John Kelly Jr. Cornerback Ka’dar Hollman tied for the team lead last week in special teams snaps, suggesting he’ll continue to be part of the game day roster plans, too. If the Ravens want to do more than that, they’ll need to create space on the 53-man roster. The best guess at Sunday’s inactive list would be wide receiver Devontez Walker, offensive linemen Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu and Nick Samac, Isaac and defensive backs Nate Wiggins, T.J. Tampa and Beau Brade. Wiggins, the rookie first-round pick, missed the final two practices of the week with a neck injury after he was involved in a car accident. Harbaugh said he wouldn’t play Sunday.

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Prediction

Ravens 27, Raiders 17

You don’t typically put “must-win” labels on Week 2 games, but after losing in Week 1 and playing the Cowboys, Buffalo Bills and Bengals over the next three weeks, the Ravens cannot afford a misstep here. The Raiders aren’t pushovers by any means, but the Ravens are at home, on extra rest and are relatively healthy. If the Ravens are who they think they are, they should win this game relatively comfortably. The bet here is they will, persisting through some anxious moments early and pulling away late.

(Top photo of Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton: Cooper Neill / Associated Press)