Since taking over as Edmonton Oilers owner in June 2008, Daryl Katz has consistently spent to the cap, approved buyouts on demand and devoted enormous dollars in the pursuit of the Stanley Cup.
The results of that expenditure have often been a mind-blowing experience for fans, and no doubt for Katz.
Ironically, the recent offer sheets from the St. Louis Blues that resulted in the trading of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg give new general manager Stan Bowman a window of opportunity to reimagine the team’s approach to the salary cap.
Will he take advantage of the opportunity? Will Katz approve of the new direction?
The last decade
Less than one week after Connor McDavid was drafted No. 1 in 2015, the Oilers made the first “shoot the moon” major free-agent signing. Since then, general managers have routinely spent massive dollars on older players, past their prime, in an effort to win the Cup.
Andrej Sekera was the first signing, and that deal ended with a buyout. Even more devastating, the 2016 Milan Lucic contract involved a stunning buyout penalty that forced a trade, which included a draft pick and the acquisition of James Neal (who would later be bought out).
Since 2015, through the period general managers Peter Chiarelli and Ken Holland were in control of the team, the amount of money spent on aging veterans in free agency (and by trade), followed by expensive buyouts or offloading deals, can be regarded as the single biggest drag on this team’s attempts to win the Stanley Cup during that time.
The recent past
In the weeks CEO Jeff Jackson and the rest of the management group were running the show (between Holland’s exit and Bowman’s arrival), the free-agent spending was abundant but more responsible.
In signing aging veterans like Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson and Adam Henrique, the team went short-term and made certain the AAV for each man came in at $4 million or less.
The deal for Skinner (one year, $3 million) could be one of the best value signings of the summer. The Oilers rarely show up in that category.
Those signings did add $10 million to the 2024-25 cap, though, and led directly to the Blues’ successful offer sheets for Broberg and Holloway.
If the management group had signed both youngsters, one of those three forwards would have been out of reach for Edmonton. The better plan would have been to walk Arvidsson (an injury risk) or Skinner (there are signs of regression) and retain the two young players.
A silver lining from the offer sheets is room to wheel when opportunities arise. It’s important that Bowman doesn’t blow that money in trade or free agency over the next 12 months.
Skinner versus Holloway
The appeal of famous names is irresistible for fans, and unfortunately for managers and owners, too.
The impact of a long-term deal for a late 20s player is often devastating.
In the case of Lucic, the organization traded Taylor Hall and replaced him with Lucic, effectively giving up six prime seasons of a future MVP in exchange for six seasons of constant erosion from a veteran who had lost a step and much of his skill.
If we compare Skinner (one year at $3 million) and Holloway with his new deal ($2.29 million times two) last season, is it reasonable to assume the Oilers will get better production in 2024-25 after these two transactions?
| Category | Jeff Skinner | Dylan Holloway |
|---|---|---|
|
TOI-Game
|
12:49
|
11:03
|
|
Goals-60
|
0.95
|
0.71
|
|
Points-60
|
2.02
|
1.14
|
|
Shots-60
|
9.42
|
7.42
|
|
Shooting Pct
|
10.07
|
9.6
|
All numbers five-on-five
Skinner had a better season, even considering he was playing higher on the Buffalo Sabres depth chart.
Holloway shows well in goals per 60 and shooting percentage, but he is unproven offensively. Holloway emerging as a 25-goal scorer seems unlikely, especially if he’s playing on a line without a truly gifted centre.
Skinner scored 15 goals at five-on-five last season, most of those (nine goals) coming in 310 minutes with Casey Middlestadt as the pivot on his line. He is about to play with one of McDavid or Leon Draisaitl as his centre, and the five-on-five goal total should soar if Skinner remains healthy all year.
For his part, Holloway scored five goals at five-on-five, three of them with centre Ryan McLeod (now with the Sabres) in just over 200 minutes.
How many could Holloway have scored as a regular with Edmonton’s top centres? We’ll never know, but it’s safe to say Skinner is a better bet for an Oilers skill line during 2024-25.
For the record, during his time with the Oilers, Holloway played just 72 minutes with McDavid, scoring twice (1.66 goals per 60). In over 90 minutes with Draisaitl, he didn’t score.
Small sample, but some promise with the captain.
The five-on-five comps aside, Skinner is also a strong offensive option on the power play, having scored 16 goals in 450 minutes (2.14 goals per 60) over the past two regular seasons.
Skinner is a better fit for the Oilers, especially on a one-year deal.
Does that justify allowing Holloway’s exit to the Blues?
Not at all. Jackson’s roster construction surely involved keeping both Holloway and Broberg along with Skinner and the free agents acquired on July 1.
That’s a major misstep that was correctly criticized at the time.
One can acknowledge that fact while still being curious about the benefits of increased roster space.
Let this be your last battlefield
This is an important pressure point in franchise history, and Katz is the key player.
It’s a good guess that Chiarelli arrived under enormous pressure to improve in a hurry in the days after the McDavid draft lottery excitement. The moves he made that first summer, adding Sekera while trading for Cam Talbot, Griffin Reinhart and others, indicated urgency.
Chiarelli may have been hurried along by an impatient owner with a new building on the way and in need of an excited fan base.
The same could be said for the Holland era, although it was further hampered by the pandemic. Katz continued to roll out the cash when needed all down the line, and Holland showed a willingness to spend dollars and young assets.
The Bowman era started with the dual offer sheets, further devastating the young player pool in the organization.
There may well be enormous pressure from ownership to use the cap room to acquire more expensive veterans, especially if veteran Evander Kane lands on LTIR.
An immediate, expensive and older roster fix is in the Oilers’ DNA during the Katz ownership era.
Longtime Oilers fans know how this could turn out.
The right way
Jackson and Bowman reacted by acquiring Ty Emberson (to replace Broberg) and Vasily Podkolzin (the next Holloway) on the roster.
These are appropriate tweaks. No headlines, just good business.
It’s vital to realize what happened in that transaction with St. Louis.
The Oilers didn’t lose a top-six winger or a top-four defenceman. The club did lose two young players, under control, with the potential to grow into those roles.
There was time before the offer sheet and there is time now.
The play here is not a big trade that will bring in an expensive option like Rasmus Ristolainen.
The best thing Jackson and Bowman can do is convince Katz the better plan is to find a less expensive player who can grow into the role required.
Emberson may eventually be able to take on second pairing minutes. The organization should be casting about looking for checkdown options. What might that look like?
The player who eventually lands the second pairing right-side job beside Darnell Nurse should come at a cost (and own a salary) that is well shy of what the organization paid for the big-ticket items of the past.
Emberson, Troy Stecher and Travis Dermott (recently signed to a PTO) appear to be the early bets, and each man should be given a full shot at NHL work if they make the team.
After that, and by midseason if things are still troubling, Bowman should be casting about for younger bets (like Gustav Lindstrom or Justin Barron) who may be available for trade.
Bowman should only add a big ticket item at the deadline, and that player should be a rental.
As things stand, Edmonton has its financial house in order. It came at a steep price, and no one should consider the loss of Broberg and Holloway worth the gain.
The cap room available now will grow over the season and into the summer.
A strong management team, mindful of value of finding inexpensive options that can grow with the team, and the benefits of short-term contracts with famous players, could be the key to Edmonton’s next Stanley Cup victory.
(Photo of Stan Bowman: Dave Sandford / NHLI via Getty Images)
