Dillon Gabriel’s been putting up 3,000-yard seasons for years. His run started during college football’s old days — when the Pac-12 still had delusions of grandeur and nobody knew what “NIL” meant. Entering Saturday, Gabriel had thrown for 15,488 yards as a college football player, or about 4,000 more than any player in the history of the Big Ten Conference.
After going 20-of-24 passing for 291 yards and two touchdowns (plus a 54-yard TD run) in a dominant 49-14 rivalry win over Oregon State, Gabriel jumped Sam Hartman for fifth place on the NCAA’s all-time career passing yardage list. Gabriel also now has signature rivalry wins at three different schools (UCF, Oklahoma and Oregon).
So, why don’t we hear much about him during NFL Draft conversations?
In an interview with The Athletic this summer, Gabriel admitted to being “devastated” last draft cycle when most of the input he received from scouts and agents pointed toward a seventh-round or undrafted grade.
In reality, the draft advice he received was partly a fact of life for him, and partly a matter of circumstance. Gabriel is a 5-foot-11 (in cleats), 200-pound football player. His size isn’t just below average, it’s poor. His downfield arm talent leaves plenty to be desired, even though he’s a very confident player in the pocket who’s not afraid to throw against pressure or into tight windows, gets the ball out quick and has on-point intermediate accuracy. And, despite being a starter for five years, he still can get stuck on reads and show repeated mistakes.
The 2024 quarterback class, meantime, was loaded — not just at the top, but the whole way through. Eleven quarterbacks heard their names called, including six in the first round.
Would Gabriel have joined that group had he declared? Probably, even if would have been late. But if you look at the final three quarterbacks taken last year (Joe Milton III, Devin Leary and Michael Pratt), it’s easy to make a case for Gabriel ahead of any of them.
He gone 💨 #GoDucks x @_dillongabriel_ pic.twitter.com/Z6NN5UerVd
— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) September 14, 2024
Same time, context is absolutely required here. We could stack up throwing metric after throwing metric over the last four years, and Gabriel would rate well in every one of them. He’s smart, a big-time competitor, plays with a lot of poise and has been through the fire. However, his first three seasons came in the AAC and he played the last two at Oklahoma inside a hyper pass-happy offense — and in a defense-optional conference.
So, while Gabriel may have been heartbroken over low draft feedback, his decision to transfer to Oregon was a great one.
On Oct. 12, Gabriel and the undefeated Ducks host Ohio State. On Nov. 2, Oregon travels to Michigan. There’s also a trip to Wisconsin and a home date with Washington waiting in November. If Gabriel performs well in those big spots and leads Oregon to a Big Ten title and/or playoff spot, you’ll see his name rise. There’s little margin for error here, however, especially because Gabriel turns 24 in December.
The 2025 NFL Draft’s QB1 conversation will include names like Georgia’s Carson Beck, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Texas’ Quinn Ewers. Penn State’s Drew Allar could join them if he goes on a run through the Big Ten.
Gabriel might be able to jump into the next group, though — the one featuring players like Miami’s Cam Ward, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart, Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman and Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard. Even after his performance at Oregon State, Gabriel is probably still on the outside looking in with that group, but not by a lot.
Despite the gaggle of starts Gabriel has made, it’s hard to find many clunkers on his resume. He’s a high-floor prospect. And when the draft enters heads toward Day 3, higher floors can beat higher ceilings in the right situations.
Dane Brugler’s scouting report
In terms of physical tools, Gabriel is underwhelming by NFL standards. He’s 5-foot-10 1/2 and 200 pounds with average arm strength and athleticism, the main reasons most NFL teams had those priority free agent grades on him after last season.
But his quick processing skills and ability to deliver with timing and placement shouldn’t go overlooked. And if he leads Oregon to big wins against Ohio State and the other top opponents on the schedule, that will be key to convincing teams he is worth a Day 3 draft pick. Former Georgia quarterback Stetson Bennett also had physical limitations (and off-field concerns), but he ended up going in the Round 4, because the Rams believed in his ability to make plays and lead an offense.
If Bennett can be a mid-round pick, so can Gabriel. All it takes is one team.
(Top photo: Brian Murphy / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
