The results are in.
Nearly 800 fans sent in their thoughts on the state of the Houston Rockets ahead of the 2024-25 season. Coming off a season in which the franchise won 41 games, there is reason for optimism again, which is far from what most could have envisioned a few years ago. A talented young core is in place, a head coach who has changed the locker room culture overnight and a front office expressing patience and growth.
This team is locked into Phase 2, which could mean different things for different fans. But things are happening, which is always positive. Let’s get into what you all said about the state of your team.
Q: Are you confident the Rockets are heading in the right direction?
Even though this overwhelmingly unified response is understandable, it’s still jarring to see, considering where this team was a few years ago.
Last season, two-thirds of Rockets fans believed the franchise was headed in the right direction after hiring head coach Ime Udoka and adding Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. After winning 41 games and fleshing out its young core — with expectations of continued improvement — nearly all participants agree Houston is trending upward.
This team is in a much healthier, competitive space than they were at the outset of the rebuild.
Q: How would you grade the Rockets’ draft night — Reed Sheppard with the No. 3 pick?
I’m not surprised by this response either.
For weeks leading up to the 2024 NBA Draft, Sheppard seemed to have already established himself as a fan favorite — with his elite outside shooting ability a big draw. Among the weaknesses the Rockets have from a roster standpoint, floor spacing arguably ranks highest and Sheppard’s shooting puts him in a different class compared to his peers. The No. 3 pick’s summer-league performances also put him in good standing heading into a training camp that should be competitive.
Remember, this draft class doesn’t look as strong as some we’ve seen in recent years, so 96 percent of fans giving either an “A” or “B” grade to Sheppard’s addition is a good sign.
Q: Did you expect the Rockets to finish the 2023-24 season with a 41-41 record?
Before March, I expected the Rockets to finish around their preseason prediction (Vegas had the line at 31.5 wins). The team was on a slide heading into the All-Star break, having lost five out of six games and looked like a group struggling to adapt under a new system, coupled with higher expectations. Houston was 24-30 at the unofficial midpoint of the season and if you told me they would have finished with 30 wins, I would have taken that bet.
But then March happened.
Regardless of what you want to attribute the change to — small ball, Jalen Green catching fire or a favorable schedule — the Rockets won 13 out of 15 games in the month, putting them back into potentially making the Play-In Tournament. Houston didn’t have enough juice to get through the final stretch, but that 15-game chunk was enough to catch us by surprise. Color me shocked.
Q: What is the fewest number of wins the Rockets could get in the 2024-25 season to be considered a success?
It pleases me to see the fans are realistic.
This has been a question I’ve thought about a lot this offseason. To go from 22 wins in 2023 to 41 in 2024 required a substantial leap, improvement across the board and also a bit of luck. It’s just the NBA. But when you have a 19-game jump year over year, taking the next step can be even more difficult. The Western Conference isn’t showing any signs of letting up.
If the Rockets were to finish with a 43-39 record, I agree that it should be considered a success. It would negate the idea that their hot month of March was more than just a streak and that the team has grown considerably, which lends back to the first question of being on the right path.
About a third of fans put 46 wins as their threshold, which should be enough for the Play-In. That’s fair as well if you’re putting credence in the Rockets letting the rope down the stretch of the 2023-24 regular season.
Q: How many wins do you expect the Rockets to have in the 2024-25 season?
While I don’t agree with the majority (I have Houston projected at 43 wins), it’s not that far off. The consensus is fans expect this team to be competitive next season.
The Rockets had a relatively quiet offseason which we’ll get to later, but there’s good reason to believe their young players should improve between now and the upcoming campaign. If you go back and examine Houston’s record in close games (17-23 in “clutch” games, according to NBA.com), several of those outcomes could have gone differently had it been for better decision-making, shot selection or luck. Another season should correlate to more experience, which means these players should be better equipped in close games. That 17-23 could be 23-17.
I’m sure health also factored into this. Alperen Şengün missed the final 19 games of the season and as the team’s best player, that plays a big part in their win total — especially for a young team finding their way.
Q: Where do you expect the Rockets to finish by the end of the regular season?
Regardless of how many games you expect the team to win next season, the consensus is it’s time for some playoff basketball. That’s a sentence I didn’t think I’d type three years into a rebuild.
For what it’s worth, I agree. Teams like Memphis and San Antonio will be much more competitive, which shrinks the middle of the standings. The cutoff last season to qualify for the Play-In Tournament was 46 wins, but I think 43 gets them in this time. Could Rockets fans finally be back in the dance?
Q: Are you confident in GM Rafael Stone and the Rockets’ front office?
Good answer. Outside of maybe the top three seeds in each conference from last season (Boston, Milwaukee, New York, Denver, Minnesota and Oklahoma City), there’s no front office I would be overly confident in. There has to be a level of cautious optimism, which is what at least half of fans agree with.
Looking at the roster, there have been several hits with credit going to Stone. Outside of Şengün, Green and the aforementioned Sheppard, young players like Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore show promise. Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. have shown they are quality contributors who should only improve.
But there also have been misses. Josh Christopher, Usman Garuba, TyTy Washington Jr., and K.J. Martin didn’t work out in Houston and came at the cost of first-round picks. Kevin Porter Jr. came at a minimal cost, but you could argue Green’s development was interrupted because of it. Christian Wood and Bruno Fernando cut into the playing time and development of Şengün and if we’re playing Monday morning quarterback, those were unnecessary signings (as was Daniel Theis).
A general manager or a front office operation can’t hit on every move they make. How you differentiate the 30 teams is by finding consistency, not only in development but through trades, free agency and overall flexibility. It’s a fluid process. But if 90 percent of Rockets fans are either fairly or very confident in Stone, they’re in good shape.
Q: Do you feel Ime Udoka improved the team during his first season as head coach?
I didn’t expect there to be much disparity in this response, but the six percent of fans who said Udoka only somewhat improved the team intrigued me.
I’d like to think taking a 22-win team to a 41-win unit knocking on the door of the postseason counts as improvement, but perhaps that faction of fans is considering a more tactical approach. Heading into the offseason, Udoka spoke at length about the need to diversify Houston’s offensive approach, understanding that they were a bit stale in that regard.
If we’re playing devil’s advocate (speaking for the six percenters), Udoka didn’t sign VanVleet and Brooks and didn’t draft Thompson and Whitmore. However, he did work with the pieces in front of him and transformed the Rockets into a top-10 defensive team. That alone should be enough improvement to warrant a vote in the “Yes” column in my humble opinion.
Q: Were you surprised by Houston’s lack of free agency activity (signings or trades)?
In any other summer, Rockets fans would be clamoring for free-agency signings. I would have my fake trades column trade targets outlined, and we would see how aggressive Houston’s front office gets. But these past few months have been rather quiet and it doesn’t seem like anyone is bothered.
As it stands, Houston’s rotation is set. Steven Adams has yet to play a game and Eason hasn’t gotten integrated under Udoka so those two aspects of roster building, along with the arrival of Sheppard, count for enough offseason business in the eyes of most Rockets fans. Fair play.
Q: Which young player needs to take the biggest leap next season for the Rockets to improve?
I would have voted for Thompson. If he develops a consistent jumper, his dynamic athleticism, defensive versatility, rebounding and playmaking give him the edge over Brooks in the starting lineup at some point. I also think that going from a spacing non-factor to a plus is probably a bigger leap than anything else and adds another dimension to this team. But I understand why 62 percent of fans went with Green.
This is a make-or-break season for the fourth-year guard with extension talks on his mind. Up until this point, consistency has been the biggest drawback to his ability. If the level Green displayed in March can be extrapolated for the entire season (or even a tier below), the Rockets are a better team in the short and long run. We’ve seen what it looks like when Green takes over games and I already think Şengün took “the leap” this past season. So this result doesn’t surprise me at all.
Q: Which player is primed for a breakout season?
See the above response for why I would have voted for Thompson. I thought these two would go hand in hand. But from the looks of it, the fans are somewhat divided in which player is due for a breakout season. Twenty-seven percent of people went with Thompson, but there are good arguments for fellow USA Select Team member Smith, as well as slightly smaller percentages for Green and Şengün. It’s almost a good problem to have, though, with so many young players under contract.
Q: Do you believe Alperen Şengün can become a top-15 player in the NBA?
The Rockets have invested a lot in Şengün’s development, most recently sending multiple assistants to work with him in Turkey during the summer to facilitate his recovery and progress. Last season, the third-year center flirted with All-Star selection and displayed enough — especially offensively — to project multiple All-Star selections in the future, perhaps as early as this coming season. I think he’s already entrenched as the franchise player.
But 40 percent of fans also don’t agree he can be a top-15 player, or at least they’re not sure just yet. For clarity, this doesn’t mean that they don’t see him becoming an All-Star or a top-25 player. This is only about NBA players regarded as Tier 1. He’s still 22 years old, so he has time. I think he can. But I also don’t discount those who are skeptics.
Q: Do you believe Jalen Green can become a top-15 player in the NBA?
From the looks of things, Green has a way to go in proving to fans he should be considered a future franchise player. Three-fourths of participants have serious doubts about Green reaching superstar status, which goes back to how they voted on his growth impacting the Rockets’ on-court success. There’s work to be done.
(Photo of Jalen Green: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
