Fantasy football Week 2 recap: Don't sweat Travis Kelce's slow start

This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 2 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

Should fantasy managers have any long-term concerns about the respective scoring slumps of Travis Kelce and Sam LaPorta?

Since these two were ranked first and second in tight end ADP during fantasy draft season, it seems appropriate to combine their reviews into a single post.

Let’s start with Kelce. He is having an awful start to the 2024 campaign, ranking 27th in TE points, and may be costing his fantasy managers some early-season losses.

In looking at whether this will continue, let’s start by noting that Kelce places 13th among tight ends in PPG on vertical passes. That’s not a great ranking, but it’s still much better than his overall rank and suggests it won’t take too much improvement here to get this number back to its usual upper-tier form.

Kelce also still has a primary role in this offense, as he leads the team in red zone routes run and red zone targets. He also ranks first in end zone targets. In addition to these encouraging metrics, Kelce has a favorable schedule coming up, with only one red-rated tight end coverage matchup between now and Week 10.

Combine these factors and it seems this is likely just an anomalous start for Kelce. Keep the faith if you have him on a roster and trade low for him if you are in league where he ends up on the trading block.

The situation starts better for LaPorta, as he ranks 14th in TE points and is 18th in vertical points at this position. His upcoming schedule isn’t quite as favorable — two red-rated tight end matchups on the slate in the next five games — but the real problem for him shows up when looking at how the Lions have been distributing red zone targets so far this year.

LaPorta is third in routes run in this area of the field, but he’s tied for fourth in targets and has zero receptions. A big part of that is Detroit’s newfound appreciation of Jameson Williams, who is tied for the team lead in red zone routes run and targets. The combination of Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs gives LaPorta plenty of additional competition in that area of the field.

Red zone woes were part of why Detroit lost to Tampa Bay, so the Lions may be looking to the highly talented LaPorta more often to help solve that issue, but all in all, LaPorta’s situation does look to be more concerning than Kelce’s. If Detroit keeps dividing those red zone targets, it may be a harbinger of a mid-tier TE1 season for LaPorta rather than the upper-tier TE1 status augured by his ADP. But managers should refrain from taking him out of fantasy lineups just yet.

How much concern should Michael Pittman Jr.’s fantasy managers have over the Colts’ passing game?

Let’s start by noting Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was eighth in the SEC in YPA versus Power Five teams in his final year at Florida and had only one year as the Gators’ starting quarterback. That lack of college starting experience and last year’s early season injury are why Richardson has thrown only 530 passes combined between college and the NFL.

This is why it’s not surprising that Richardson is struggling with his arm. He ranks 35th in pass points per game over the past two seasons, a pace that is behind such luminaries as Mac Jones, Will Levis, Easton Stick, Taylor Heinicke and Mason Rudolph.

The silver lining here is that things get better if one rates Richardson on a vertical pass points per game basis this year. He is 15th in that metric over the first two weeks of this campaign.

The problem for Pittman is that vertical passes are not his forte, as he ranked 81st in wide receiver vertical PPG from 2020 to 2023, and Richardson rates 25th in short PPG this year and 42nd over the past two years. Pittman needs to work with a quarterback who is adept at short passes, but Richardson just isn’t that quarterback at this time. The result may be that Pittman will post subpar or inconsistent numbers throughout this year. It might be time to cut the losses and trade him if possible.

Is it time to bench Amari Cooper?

Cooper has a somewhat similar issue as Pittman in that his quarterback is lacking in downfield production. But Cooper differs from Pittman in that he has excelled in catching the deep ball, having placed 13th in vertical PPR PPG in 2022 and fourth in that category in 2023. He was also fourth in stretch vertical PPG in 2023.

Cooper posted a lot of these superb numbers while dealing with a quarterback rotation, and in some cases dealt with subpar passers (to be kind). Yet this year, Cooper hasn’t been up to that elite level despite having Deshaun Watson under center.

This does make one wonder if the shoulder issue that ended Watson’s 2023 campaign might still be impacting his downfield passing prowess. But if that is the case, why hasn’t it had the same impact on Jerry Jeudy, who has run the same number of vertical routes (18), has the same volume of vertical targets (8) as Cooper and yet has three vertical receptions for 66 yards at that route depth level (versus zero receptions for Cooper).

Those are all worrisome elements from small sample sizes, so a potential tie-breaking factor is that Cooper has an extraordinarily favorable schedule for the rest of the season. He isn’t slated to face a red-rated cornerback until Week 17 and has five green-rated cornerback matchups in the next seven games. That schedule largesse is enough to keep putting him into lineups as a WR3/flex for at least another week or two.

Has Baker Mayfield moved to must-start status?

It sure looks like it, as Mayfield ranks first among quarterbacks in PPG, third in vertical pass PPG, and third in short pass PPG. This pass-centric pace should keep up for a while, not only because Mayfield is playing so well but also because the Buccaneers have five red-rated rush defense matchups over a six-game span from Weeks 5-10. That should motivate Tampa Bay’s coaching staff to rely on the aerial attack in that time frame, so don’t go trading Mayfield high yet, as he’s got some additional 20-plus point games in his near future.

How should fantasy managers handle the Tua Tagovailoa injury?

Everyone’s thoughts are with Tagovailoa following yet another concussion. There are reports that Tagovailoa has no plans to retire, but until official word comes around about his decision and health fantasy managers will need to make plans on how to approach the Miami players on their roster.

With an assist from Brandon Funston, this week I wrote about how Tagovailoa’s absence may affect players like Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. The good news is that Mike McDaniel’s creative play calling may set a high fantasy scoring floor for those Dolphins players, one that is much higher than expected while Tagovailoa is out. Keep starting your Miami stars in the short term.

(Top photo of Travis Kelce: David Eulitt/Getty Images)