LINCOLN, Neb. — Are you ready? Ready to hear that Nebraska hasn’t beaten a ranked team since 2016 Oregon.
Ready to hear Matt Rhule is 2-19 against ranked foes in his coaching career. That the Huskers last played in a home matchup of two ranked teams in 2013 against UCLA. And that they haven’t won one of those games in Lincoln since 2011 against Michigan State.
It’s coming. And fast in this short week ahead of No. 22 Nebraska against No. 24 Illinois in the first-ever Friday night game at Memorial Stadium.
All the talk and anticipation “has nothing to do with us,” Dylan Raiola said after Nebraska rolled Northern Iowa 34-3 on Saturday night. The freshman quarterback gave himself a few minutes to enjoy the Huskers’ third win in three weeks to open the season before he moved on to what’s next.
“It’s time that the season starts,” Raiola said. “It’s time that the games begin.”
Rhule said he doesn’t judge Big Ten teams by their numbers against nonconference opponents.
“You never know where you are until you get there,” he said.
So for Rhule, the slate is clean as the 3-0 Illini head to Lincoln, where it won in 2020 and 2022. Meaningless results, according to the Huskers, even for those who played against Illinois two years ago — on the same October day that Rhule flew in undercover to tour the town as a coaching candidate.
Think about how much has changed in 22 months.
“We’re finally putting those pieces together,” senior defensive end Ty Robinson said, “and it’s showing. It’s a good feeling.”
Pieces remain for Nebraska to assemble, the evidence showed on Saturday as the Huskers allowed the Panthers of the FCS to hold the ball for 38 minutes, rush for 139 yards and convert eight third and fourth downs.
Here’s what we know — and what we don’t — about Nebraska as it dives into Big Ten play:
• Offensively, the Huskers present a new product entirely in comparison to last year against conference opponents.
Start with Raiola. The former five-star prospect is 59-for-80 passing with five touchdowns and one interception for 670 yards. That’s a 73.8 percent completion rate, ranking him eighth nationally.
“He’s just focused,” senior receiver Isaiah Neyor said. “He looks comfortable. You can tell he’s not overthinking it. He just goes out there and plays. He’s a player.”
The transformation involves much more than Raiola, though. His leading rusher, Dante Dowdell, and four of his top five receivers in balls caught (Neyor, Jacory Barney, Jahmal Banks and Carter Nelson) are new to Nebraska this season.
The Huskers rank 42nd nationally in yards gained per play (6.45), up from 104th a year ago (5.08), and they’re converting 50 percent of third downs while rushing for 171 yards per game and throwing for 250.
Barney and Nelson scored first-half touchdowns on Saturday. They bring instant electricity and the promise of improvement over the next two months. Alongside Raiola, Nebraska has never had a group of true freshmen like that trio.
“We’re winning games, so that’s all that matters to me, honestly,” Raiola said.
The offense also features returning playmakers in Rahmir Johnson, Emmett Johnson, Thomas Fidone and Jaylen Lloyd. And then there’s the X-factor, Heinrich Haarberg. Haarberg, the backup QB who started eight games a year ago, debuted in his “slash” role on Saturday. He got five plays with Raiola on the field and led a touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
Rhule told Haarberg he’d never seen a player catch and throw check-down passes in the same game.
The simple threat of Haarberg helps Nebraska.
“Every time we put a quarterback run on tape, another team has to practice it,” Rhule said. “And (the plays) don’t have to necessarily work. I just have to chew up 20 minutes of their time each day, worrying about option and worrying about those things, because we can run it all with Heinrich.”
• The standard on defense is exceptionally high.
Nebraska allowed three points Saturday night.
“Us older guys and a lot of us on defense were still really pissed going in at halftime,” Robinson said. “Tackling was not great. Execution wasn’t really there.”
They pitched a second-half shutout and still walked away unsatisfied.
Safety Isaac Gifford softened his stance as he took a step back to look at 12 quarters of play. Nebraska foes have scored 20 points and gained 4.19 yards per play, an improvement over the 4.62-yard mark a year ago that ranked seventh nationally and as the Huskers’ best defensive average since 2010.
“Obviously, there are always things to fix,” Gifford said.
Behind their disappointment on Saturday — and after allowing one touchdown against both UTEP and Colorado — is a strong belief in the system directed by coordinator Tony White.
The two most efficient offensive teams in the Big Ten through three weeks, Ohio State and Indiana, appear on the Nebraska schedule in October. Something of an on-ramp to the more wide-open conference exists over the next three weeks for the Blackshirts against Illinois, Purdue and Rutgers.
“We can be great,” safety DeShon Singleton said, “that’s how I feel about this defense.”
• Is it still “bowl game or bust” in 2024? Or is Nebraska actually a dark horse candidate for the College Football Playoff?
It’ll depend on their ability to consistently play a full four quarters. In the first halves, Nebraska has looked the part of a contender, compiling a 79-10 scoring edge. The advantage after halftime drops to 23-10.
While a CFP at-large bid looks daunting, the schedule remains manageable. At the risk of overreacting to a small sample size, nothing about Purdue, Wisconsin or Iowa ought to frighten Nebraska. In fact, if the Big Ten West had not died after last season, the Huskers might stand today as a favorite to reach the championship game.
Elsewhere on the schedule, UCLA faces a major rebuild. Ohio State and USC remain formidable. Illinois this week and Rutgers at home will test the Huskers’ physicality. But there’s just one foe that’s playing far above preseason expectations — Indiana. The Hoosiers might be 5-0 when Nebraska visits on Oct. 19.
Rhule said last week that he believes Nebraska has played “winning football” this season. It’s enough to end the seven-year bowl drought. The Huskers are halfway to six wins, but their goals are bigger. Rhule said he seeks “championship football,” a level of play that Nebraska has reached during stretches of the first half in each game.
• Can the Huskers win close games?
Part of the discrepancy between the first and second halves this season, Rhule said, is by design. He’d like the Huskers to look boring in the fourth quarter. They lost last year by failing to play the right way when ahead.
“In my mind, we’re learning how to win,” Rhule said. “The narrative of losing close games comes from, when you get a lead, not trying to put the game away.”
Nebraska lost 25 one-score games from 2018 to 2022. In Rhule’s first season, it finished 1-5 in games decided by eight points or fewer.
“Incessant losing,” Rhule said last week. “And it’s cultural. It’s not a player. It’s cultural.”
The Huskers, as a group, expected to lose late in close games. They’ve not faced that challenge in 2024. They will. Likely soon.
“It’s a different feeling for sure,” Haarberg said, “because it kind of feels like an entirely different mindset from the past couple years.
“It’s more foot on the throat. Let’s put them out.”
One reason for optimism: Raiola makes smart decisions. His only turnover in three games came on a throw that Rhule encourages him — actually needs him — to attempt.
“When people have asked me what makes him special, I’ve said he’s not a seven-on-seven quarterback,” Rhule said. “He likes the game part of it.”
A second reason: Dowdell, the 225-pound sophomore, is the hammer that Nebraska has lacked. He’s emerged as the Huskers’ best every-down runner, gaining 184 yards on 31 carries. His downhill style wins close games.
Answers are coming.
(Top photo of Carter Nelson: Dylan Widger / USA Today)
