Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
Isiah Pacheco was No. 2 in the rankings and he’s out for an extended period now, so all that is up for grabs. Carson Steele is the only other back who charted, so you know what to do in the bidding. It’s Steele or bust for me. I don’t get the market saying Samaje Perine when Perine is old and off the street.
With 39%, De’Von Achane is a pyrrhic victory. He’s not going to be able to hold up with this workload. I know he did it in college but he’s playing men now. Less will be more with Achane, still a Will Fuller All-Star with the injuries. Raheem Mostert is expected back in Week 3, but we have no idea how long Tua Tagovailoa is going to be out with his concussion, so defenses will likely play the run far more aggressively.
Tony Pollard clocking in at No. 7 makes him one of draft day’s big bargains. Tyjae Spears clocked in at No. 47 and could possibly be on the chopping block in your league. I like guys on waivers more than Spears.
Javonte Williams is a hold given he was No. 19 but, of course, that makes him about RB30 at best vs. a neutral opponent until we see the Denver offense do something/anything.
Jonathan Taylor has been victimized by the horribly low Colts play count through two weeks. But now we add that he was 24th in share of touches and we have another reason to worry. Taylor was very efficient and can continue to be, but we want two paths to scoring — volume and efficiency — not one.
At No. 37, Ty Chandler is one of those waiver wire RBs I would take over Spears. He’s decent, is in a good offense and is backing up an injury-prone 30-year-old committee RB. I would go 25% of FAAB on him easily.
Tyler Allgeier has less of a path to fantasy relevance, so he’s 10-15% for me.
I would be willing to bid 15-20% of my FAAB for Bucky Irving because Rachaad White is 3.6 yards per carry for his career and 2.0 this year. He has to be a game or two away from losing his hold on the job.
Receiver Targets
Malik Nabers at 64.3% of targets was the dream, but this was the Commodores. So Lionel Richie won’t be trying to cover him in upcoming weeks, I assume. The market share is great, but don’t get carried away.
Hunter Henry at No. 2 is crazy — 44.4%. And he was 9.1 yards per target, great for a TE. One was a slip screen where he was uncovered, but still. His schedule looks brutal, but tight ends are not really matchup players. Sure, we have stats for how teams defend tight ends, but they’re sort of fake. There are so many shapes and sizes and opponent usage patterns at the position.
Chris Olave managers are disappointed, but the Saints passing volume won’t stay this low and No. 5 is a perfect slot for him. Better days are coming.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was used like his drafters dreamed at No. 6 so that has to be acknowledged. He was a little down in Week 1 and really up in Week 2 in the model. He’s trending up heading into Week 3 vs. Miami.
Zay Flowers was top 10. That means he should be ranked in the top 20 this week, though he won’t be. Make your lineup decisions accordingly.
Quentin Johnston was No. 13 and I get the passing volume worries, but it means you can’t let him sit on waivers. I bet 15% of FAAB gets him and that’s off a two-TD game. Remember, expect attempts to regress to average both in a positive and negative sense.
Khalil Shakir was No. 21. I don’t know if this was a one-week thing. Generally, the play volume for Buffalo in Week 2 was gross. He’s 59% rostered on Yahoo. I’ll definitely have him in my top 40 in Week 3 vs. the Jaguars.
Mike Gesicki is a good add given he was 25% market share plus highly efficient. I don’t know why the Bengals aren’t giving a 40% market share to Ja’Marr Chase, but we have to adjust to what’s happening. The bigger concern is that Tee Higgins seems close to returning. I’d be very conservative with Gesicki — 5-10%.
Rashee Rice is overrated. He was 25th. How high are you going to put him? He’s not earning that many targets, even adjusting for the lower passing volume. Remember, the Ravens basically shut him out in the second half in Week 1. People think he’s a top 10 receiver where he’s more top 20. Patrick Mahomes is boring now. I’d be looking to trade Rice, but not by name — just say you’re looking to move a receiver and let them ask for Rice and then act like they’re asking for your kid. Clutch your heart and practically pass out.
I’m the president of the Amari Cooper fan club. But he was 27th in the stat even though he’s done nothing. I wouldn’t be dropping Cooper. You want to bench him? Fine. But he’s on pace for 145 targets, which is what we expected.
George Kittle to the moon with the injury to Deebo Samuel being multi-week now. Remember Kittle is a Hall of Famer and the most efficient TE in converting targets into points in the history of our game.
I think Will Levis is a total dud and would be looking to trade Calvin Ridley off the two-TD game. Both TDs were a fluke — a reverse and a miracle catch where the ball Pulp Fiction-style somehow missed two Jets defenders and went straight into his arms.
Garrett Wilson at No. 42 is a problem. But Aaron Rodgers isn’t fully back yet. He’ll be back more and more through four or five games. Give it time. Relax. An end zone target would be nice though.
Jameson Williams is why we do this — 44th in share, tied for seventh in volume. Bet the former. But Williams doesn’t even need high volume.
Rome Odunze (69th at 13.5%) is looking like a bust. Why were you drafting him over Brian Thomas Jr.? The bet was a rookie QB was going to feed three targets? No way. I’m not saying to drop Odunze. You made your bed. But you basically made the bad decision at blackjack and are just hoping now it somehow works out anyway.
(Top photo of Carson Steele: Denny Medley-Imagn Images)
