JaKobe Walter, the fifth starter and more: Analyzing Raptors rotation and depth chart

The Toronto Raptors have 20 players invited to training camp, which begins in two weeks in Montreal. You cannot invite more.

That seems strange given the Raptors did not do much this offseason. From an in/out perspective, Gary Trent Jr. leaving was the most notable thing that happened — and he signed a minimum-value deal. When you bring in three rookies on guaranteed contracts, things escalate quickly.

The outlook remains hard to read since the Raptors have only three proven players who are 6-foot-8 or bigger in Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Kelly Olynyk. (As always, Chris Boucher defies characterization.) It is hard to construct a sensible rotation with that limitation. How far have we come since last year, huh?

Let’s try to figure out some stuff. Here is my initial shot at the Raptors depth chart.

(* – on a two-way contract; # – on an exhibit-10 contract; % – on a non-guaranteed contract)

Who is the fifth starter?

Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Barnes and Poeltl are locks to start. In the NBA, you must play five players at all times, including at the start of games.

First, let’s look at that quartet. It has solid size, save for Quickley, and has the best interior defence the Raptors can manage with the combination of Barnes and Poeltl. It also has a surplus of playmaking, with Barnes, Quickley and Barrett, the latter of whom had a 19.5 assist percentage in 32 games with the Raptors, by far the best mark of his career.

That lineup lacks 3-point shooting and perimeter defence. If you cared only about shooting, you would go with Gradey Dick, who shot a team-best 39.5 percent from 3 after the Pascal Siakam trade last year. If you want defence, you’d go with Ochai Agbaji, who got a lot of reps guarding the opposition’s best player during the Raptors’ unwatchable, injury-ravaged March. They are the either/or options: Dick improved dramatically as a defender throughout the season, but has a way to go; Agbaji shot 21.7 percent from 3 as a Raptor.

Bruce Brown is a third option who brings at least a little of both. He doesn’t have the size to bother the best players on the perimeter, but he is smart and pesky. Brown is a 33.7 percent shooter from deep for his career, but has posted some decent shooting years on low volume.

Ultimately, I’m going with Dick, given his long-term importance to the team. Brown’s playmaking could also be useful to bench units, although a similar theory didn’t pan out last year. Agbaji likely starts the year as the eighth or ninth man.

What happens in the frontcourt, and will that impact the final main roster spot?

As mentioned, the Raptors are small. The Raptors have made two first-round picks over the last two years, and both have been on wings who are closer to shooting guards than small forwards: Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter. The Siakam, OG Anunoby and Utah trades brought back a guard (Quickley), three wings (Brown, Barrett and Agbaji) and one big (Olynyk). Players shot 65.5 percent within six feet when Olynyk defended a shot per nba.com, 90th among centres. Among regulars, only Jaxson Hayes, Omer Yurtseven and Mitchell Robinson had worse numbers.

Barnes’ defensive playmaking mitigates that issue, but playing Olynyk with Barnes cannot be a priority when Darko Rajaković has more important things to worry about. Theoretically, that leaves a meaningful role for Chris Boucher. To that, I say, “Fool me once…”

I would guess the Raptors will ask some players to scale up defensively, Agbaji and Barrett leading the way with those assignments. They will hope more ball pressure from Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead will result in fewer line drives to the rim, but using that type of pressure is a risk/reward proposition, as we learned from Nick Nurse’s final two teams in Toronto. Branden Carlson, the 25-year-old rookie on a two-way contract, blocked 2.5 shots per 40 minutes during his career at Utah, but that would make for a slow-footed frontcourt if he were paired with Olynyk. Jonathan Mogbo is active and athletic, but measured in at just over 6-6 at the combine.

Five-year NBA journeyman Bruno Fernando will be in camp as a non-guaranteed invitee. The Raptors have 14 players on guaranteed NBA deals, and he brings a little rim protection insurance. I don’t think he is likely to crack the rotation, but it would not be surprising to give him the 15th spot for now, given the Raptors are comfortably under the luxury-tax threshold, and then reassess as January nears. They could also see if anyone intriguing gets cut by another team in October and use that spot in another fashion.

It would be surprising to see any of the Raptors’ two-way players converted to a main roster spot in October. Unless there is someone they love who becomes available on a two-way, I would expect the Raptors to give Carlson and DJ Carton chances with both the NBA side and Raptors 905 and see how they do. (Chomche is a long-term project, and will not be converted this season.) It is plausible the Raptors could just keep the 15th spot open if they elect not to keep Fernando.

Is there room for Ja’Kobe Walter in the rotation?

Around this time last year, some readers yelled at me for not including Dick in the rotation. I was more wrong than right. Dick played in each of the first 14 games, but played more than 15 minutes in just five of those appearances. He then played himself out of the rotation, before finding his way back following the mid-season trades.

I would expect a similar start for Walter, although he is on a roster with more similar sized/skilled players than Dick was a year ago. Walter has Dick, Brown and Agbaji to contend with, whereas Dick mostly had Gary Trent Jr. and a bunch of bigger forwards (who got more time as he struggled).

Clearly the four guaranteed starters, Mitchell, Brown, Dick and Olynyk will be ahead of him. That leaves him battling for the ninth/10th spot with Agbaji, Boucher, Mogbo and Shead (ranked in that order purposefully).

My bet is he gets a quick look, with the Raptors reassessing his spot quickly.

(Top photo: Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images)