NFL Week 3 survivor pool picks, strategy: Bills and Bucs for chalk picks, plus two risky plays

Congratulations to all those still standing after the wild first two weeks of the NFL season. For two weeks in a row, the top pick in NFL survivor pools has fallen, leaving a trail of wrecked dreams and desperate re-ups in their wake.

Not to brag, but if you followed our survivor experts last week, you avoided the carnage of that Ravens’ loss. Kudos!

And, of course, those experts — Renee Miller and Adam Gretz — are back with analysis and picks for Week 3.

NFL Week 3 survivor strategy

The team with the highest pick percentage each week is eliminated from our analysis, but we know that not all of you picked them, so we will try to include endorsements (or not) in this section. Those teams are the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens.

Renee: I’m one to celebrate the small wins, so cheers to Adam and me for avoiding recommending the chalky Ravens in Week 2. It may have been for the wrong reasons, but hopefully we gave you some alternate options to lean on, and we’re all here to fight through another week.

There are some large-spread favorites I’m skipping over in Week 3 as well, including the Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers and Las Vegas Raiders. I know that picking a team facing the Carolina Panthers has been the survivor cheat code so far, but benching Bryce Young is a statement, and sometimes teams rally around a big offensive move, even if the move is to Andy Dalton. It certainly can’t get any worse, and there’s a chance the Raiders coast into this game still high on their victory over those Ravens. In other words, it’s a potential trap that I’m not falling into.

San Francisco has a ton of future value, and while Buffalo doesn’t look usable again until the Bills are back home vs. the Tennessee Titans in Week 7, I’m willing to wait for them. Jacksonville has had Buffalo’s number in the last two meetings (beating the Bills in 2021 and 2023). Cleveland … well, I just can’t. Even with all these fades, I still felt like there were several good options this week, including Cincinnati, the Seattle Seahawks and maybe the New York Jets. But my top play is the Bucs, which I’ll get into next.

Adam: I am also all about small victories because sometimes a bunch of small victories can turn into one big victory. And for me, avoiding Cincinnati and Baltimore in the first two weeks is one big victory. Or at least on track for that.

Instead, I have been taking advantage of the Carolina cheat code, but I am in complete agreement with Renee that this is the week to put that on hold. At least until we see if Andy Dalton makes a difference. Dalton may not be great, but he is a veteran presence that might stabilize things a little bit and at least give them a fighting chance, especially against a Las Vegas team that has been scrappy and tough but may not be anything special. That could be a closer-than-expected game, and I really don’t want to sweat out a Gardner Minshew vs. Andy Dalton game on my Sunday afternoon. Nobody should want that.

If Cincinnati is still available in your pool, this is a great week to pick them because I don’t see them starting 0-3, especially not at home, on a Monday night and against a rookie quarterback. And especially after the way they played in Kansas City, where they were arguably the better team. If they were still available here, they would be my pick. But they are not. So, I am going to turn to one of the other big favorites (and top teams) this week.

Week 3 chalk picks

The table below lists the five most popular survivor picks for Week 3 from Yahoo Fantasy, with the percentage of pick distribution for each of those teams as well as the point spread, from BetMGM, for each of their games as of Sept. 17.

Adam: Buffalo Bills over Jacksonville Jaguars

I try to save some of the heavyweights and most popular picks for at least a couple of weeks, in the hopes that my league has gone down in size or until I get a really good matchup with one of them without much future value.

Buffalo checks all of those boxes for me this week.

For one, I love the fact they are coming off what is basically a mini bye week, having the rare Thursday night game followed by a Monday night game. Since the start of the 2021 season Buffalo is 9-4 outright when it has the rest advantage in games (as it will here with 10 days between games), while Jacksonville is 2-8 over that stretch when it has the rest disadvantage.

Second, I don’t really love some of Buffalo’s future matchups. The Bills’ schedule gets a little tougher over the next few weeks, and as Renee mentioned above, there really isn’t another prime time to go with them until Week 7. But there should still be some favorable matchups around the league that week that I would be very comfortable going with (New Orleans Saints against Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles against the New York Giants and even Washington Commanders against Carolina Panthers). I am ready to jump on them.

Third, I just like this matchup. I know Buffalo underwent a lot of change in the offseason — on defense specifically — but it has looked good so far this season. Josh Allen is a significantly better quarterback than Trevor Lawrence, and the Bills are going to have that Monday Night Football in Buffalo home-field advantage.

Renee: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Denver Broncos

Baker Mayfield and the Bucs have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL so far this season. Drawing from fantasy football stats, Mayfield leads all QBs with 474 passing yards, one rushing touchdown and five passing TDs with only one interception. Chris Godwin has caught 15 of the 16 targets thrown his way for 200 yards and two touchdowns to lead all wide receivers in fantasy points. This is a well-oiled machine, and we haven’t even mentioned Mike Evans (eight receptions, 103 yards, two touchdowns).

The Bucs got an easy win over Washington at home in Week 1, but showed out in Detroit to get the second win on the road. It’s back to easy street this week as they are home against a Broncos team that has lost to the Seahawks and Steelers. Bo Nix and Co. have struggled mightily to score, averaging just 13 points per game (30th in the NFL), while Tampa ranks fourth with 28.5 points per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Bucs’ bend-don’t-break pass defense has allowed the fifth-most yards per game, but is one of two teams that has yet to surrender a passing touchdown. Nix has yet to throw a touchdown pass, and my money says it won’t be this weekend. His four interceptions and 30 percent completion rate on passes longer than five yards are truly terrible.

The Bucs will have great matchups with New York Giants and Carolina after their bye week in late November. Until then, it’s going to be too close for my comfort. As noted above, there are other options if you’re set on keeping the Bucs in your pocket for a late push, but with so many teams eliminated through the first two weeks, I’m confident in using Tampa now.

Week 3 contrarian picks

Renee: Arizona Cardinals over Detroit Lions

This is a very daring play, to be clear. The Lions are three-point favorites on the road in Arizona. Despite the spread, I doubt anyone is picking Detroit this weekend, so if you buy what Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. are selling, you likely get a unique win while saving one of the more popular teams for the future.

The Lions are coming off a tough loss to the Bucs in Week 2 and it took an overtime push from David Montgomery to get them the win over the LA Rams in Week 1. It’s good to be a gritty NFL team that keeps games close and ekes out the win, but they’ve looked far from one of the best teams in the league so far. To make matters worse, star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown suffered a lower leg contusion, the impact of which is yet to be seen. It sounds likely that he will be limited in practice this week and potentially during the game on Sunday. Coming off a 19-target game vs. Tampa, St. Brown is the centerpiece of the Lions’ pass attack. Without him at full strength, this matchup becomes even more difficult for the Lions.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 1-1, losing a close game in Buffalo in Week 1 before beating the Rams soundly in Week 2. Arizona is averaging 34.5 points per game, behind only New Orleans. Murray has been effective through the air (428 yards and four TDs) and has seen success both in designed runs and scrambles, averaging 11.6 yards per carry for 116 rushing yards so far. With some help from James Conner, the Cardinals rank fourth in rushing yards per game. Week 2 showed what rookie Harrison can bring to the field, ensuring that this Arizona team offers a balanced attack on offense.

I won’t be surprised if this line moves in favor of Arizona as the week goes on, and I’ve already placed my bets on them. However, as I said above, my first choice for survivor is Tampa Bay. Going against the oddsmakers in your survivor pool in Week 3 seems unnecessarily risky, but fading the chalk has worked out so far.

Adam: Green Bay Packers over Tennessee Titans

Now THAT would be a daring pick.

The Packers are not going to get a lot of love this week (being picked in less than 1 percent of survivor leagues as of Tuesday) because of the quarterback situation, and that was a big reason I picked against them as my contrarian pick in Week 2. Maybe it’s recency bias, or maybe it’s an overreaction on my part, but I loved the way they played against Indianapolis on Sunday. They ran the ball well, head coach Matt LaFleur developed a great game plan to put backup quarterback Malik Willis into positions where he could succeed, and they were in complete control of the entire game.

I don’t see why they can’t do that again against a Tennessee team that has already given away two games, due in large part to quarterback Will Levis deciding he wants to be the most chaotic quarterback in the NFL.

That is basically what this pick comes down to for me. I trust Green Bay to play a cleaner, mistake-free game more than I trust the Titans to do the same. I also do not really love Green Bay’s futures, even when Jordan Love returns, given their upcoming schedule. I thought about taking Seattle over Miami in this spot, but I am holding onto Seattle for Week 5 when they look to be one of the biggest favorites in the league at home against the Giants.

This would not be my go-to pick this week, but this could be a good chance to steal a win where nobody else is looking with a team you might not have many other opportunities to pick in the weeks ahead.

(Photo of James Cook: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)