I had a solid week, going 8-4 against the spread to move me to three under .500 against the line for the season. The good: nailing my Upset Special with Washington State knocking off Washington. The bad: picking Texas State to beat ASU. The ugly: picking Purdue to keep it close against Notre Dame.
Here are this week’s guesses:
(All point spreads come from BetMGM, click here for live odds. All kickoff times ET and on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)
Stanford at Syracuse (-8.5), Friday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
It still feels bizarre that this is an ACC game, but the Cardinal is making this long trip for a change against a hot QB in Kyle McCord. I think Fran Brown’s team cruises in front of a national TV audience.
Syracuse 34, Stanford 21
Pick: Syracuse (-8.5)
No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (-7.5), Friday, 8 p.m., Fox
Bret Bielema’s defense has been stout and should give Dylan Raiola a good test, but I like the Huskers at home to keep their momentum going.
Nebraska 23, Illinois 14
Pick: Nebraska (-7.5)
NC State at No. 21 Clemson (-20.5), Noon, ABC
Both teams have had blowout losses against more talented teams this season. I’m surprised the Tigers are almost a three touchdown favorite here. I think NC State has more than enough athletes to keep it closer than that.
Clemson 20, NC State 13
Pick: NC State (+20.5)
No. 11 USC (-6) at No. 18 Michigan, 3:30 p.m., CBS
The Trojans defense is much improved and the Wolverines look worse on both sides of the ball. It’s not surprising that their offense is struggling given how much they lost, but their defense has been really shaky. I think Lincoln Riley, with a very savvy QB in Miller Moss and one of the deepest WR rooms in the country, will get the best of new Wolverines DC Wink Martindale.
USC 24, Michigan 14
Pick: USC (-6)
UCLA at No. 16 LSU (-24.5), 3:30 p.m., ABC
The Bruins got thumped by Indiana. Now, they have to go into Death Valley to face a Tigers team that will be able to exploit the same pass defense that Kurtis Rourke and Indiana lit up.
LSU 45, UCLA 13
Pick: LSU (-24.5)
No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State (-2.5), 4 p.m., Fox
Oklahoma State has a very experienced O-line and a seasoned QB in Alan Bowman, who is playing his best ball yet — or certainly since way back in 2018. I think the Utes defense is good enough to give the Cowboys some issues but I think Mike Gundy’s guys get a tight win.
Oklahoma State 27, Utah 23
Pick: Oklahoma State (-2.5)
No. 6 Tennessee (-7) at No. 15 Oklahoma, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Josh Heupel was once forced out of his alma mater as the Sooners OC. Expect him to get some payback against OU in his return.
Tennessee 35, Oklahoma 20
Pick: Tennessee (-7)
No. 13 Kansas State (-6.5) at BYU, 10:30 p.m., ESPN
BYU QB Jake Retzlaff has been spectacular sometimes this season, but he’s had issues taking care of the ball, and against the Wildcats that seems like a bad recipe. But don’t be shocked if the Cougars slow down K-State’s dangerous run game. Kalani Sitake’s defense is nasty this year.
Kansas State 20, BYU 10
Pick: Kansas State (-6.5)
Upset Special
Arkansas at Auburn (-2.5), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
I almost went with Rutgers over Virginia Tech, but I feel a bit more confident in the Hogs. Arkansas’ running game is really explosive and I expect the Hogs to give Hugh Freeze’s team issues.
Arkansas 30, Auburn 27
Pick: Arkansas (-2.5)
(Top photo of Taylen Green: Nelson Chenault / Imagn Images)
