There’s a lot of talk about the long odds for teams that start 0-2 to make the playoffs. Since 2000, 19 teams that started 0-2 made the playoffs.
Not much is said about the playoff odds for teams that start 0-3. That’s because it’s almost impossible. Just six teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1979.
So if the 0-2 New York Giants plan to turn their season around, they’ll need to win Sunday’s game against the Browns. Here are nine thoughts on the matchup:
Fact or fiction?
There’s understandable optimism building around the Giants’ overhauled offensive line. Quarterback Daniel Jones actually had — gasp — clean pockets in last week’s 21-18 loss to the Commanders. And there were enormous holes opened for running back Devin Singletary, who averaged 5.9 yards per carry.
.@BaldyNFL evaluates Devin Singletary’s Week 2 game tape pic.twitter.com/Ket07Po7TD
— New York Giants (@Giants) September 17, 2024
But enthusiasm about the line has to be tempered by the opposition being the woeful Commanders. The Browns will pose a much stiffer test on Sunday. If the Giants’ line meets that challenge, it’ll fuel belief that the unit has made real progress.
Browns defensive end Myles Garrett’s claim as the best pass rusher in the league is supported by his defensive player of the year award last season. Garrett has averaged 13.6 sacks over the past six seasons, and he’s ahead of that pace with two sacks (both strip sacks) in the first two games of this season.
The 6-foot-4, 272-pound Garrett’s game possesses no holes.
“Obviously the physical traits that he has — there are not many people in the league his size who can move like he can,” Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas said. “He’s a bigger guy, but he can rush like a smaller 250-pound end. That can create a problem because he can also go speed-to-power because he is a bigger, stronger guy. You have to be really tuned in with your hands and your technique because he can go by you, too.”
Garrett primarily lines up across from the left tackle, but he moves around. It would make sense for Cleveland to avoid a Garrett matchup with Thomas and instead look to exploit right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor. Regardless of which side Garrett is on, expect him to draw the focus of multiple players via double teams and chips.
The best hope to slow Garrett may be the foot injury that caused him to miss practice on Wednesday and Thursday. But Garrett didn’t practice last Thursday and then was limited on Friday before playing 68 percent of the snaps and having a strip sack in Cleveland’s 18-13 win over the Jaguars.
the man is in beast mode 😤 @Flash_Garrett | #DawgPound pic.twitter.com/qqyusX8WaB
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 15, 2024
Just having Garrett on the field opens up opportunities for the rest of Cleveland’s pass rushers. Pressure off the edge from Garrett forced Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence to step up into a sack by defensive end Alex Wright for a safety to seal last week’s game.
Garrett’s primary complement is veteran defensive end Za’Darius Smith, who registered 10 sacks in 2022 for the Vikings. Former Giant defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson remains a stout run defender as part of a deep rotation up front.
“Their D-line is great all across the board,” Thomas said.
This is the type of matchup that could earn respect for Thomas and his counterparts, or cause old concerns to resurface.
To be the best …
The history of Thomas’ career has been re-written by some. He had a terrible first half of his rookie season, but he made progress as that year developed. That seemed to be forgotten when people used his past as a source of hope that Evan Neal could turn his career around after two dreadful seasons.
Evidence of Thomas’ late-season improvement as a rookie came in a Week 15 matchup with the Browns. Garrett lined up exclusively against Thomas in that game. Thomas pitched a shutout before allowing a half sack to Garrett on the second to last play of a 20-6 loss.
“There was a lot going on — COVID, ups and downs as a team and as a player,” Thomas said. “I just remember my first time going against somebody of that caliber, with the athleticism and technique and physical gifts that he has. It was just motivation to continue to push myself to be a better player and compete against guys like that.”
Thomas doesn’t pound his chest and isn’t going to turn Sunday’s game into a personal contest with Garrett. But if Thomas wants to be viewed as one of the best tackles in the league, he knows he needs to deliver in this type of matchup.
“If you’re a competitor, when you go against the best, it excites you,” Thomas said. “That’s how I feel.”
Extra help
The Giants have been helping their offensive line by max protecting on pass plays with tight ends and/or running backs staying in to block. The Giants had 19 pass attempts with six or more blockers against the Commanders, which was the second-highest total in the league last week, according to ESPN. They led the league with 10 pass attempts with seven blockers.
Coach Brian Daboll attributed the heavy use of max protection to marrying looks in the pass game to the run game. But the Giants only ran play action on seven of Jones’ drop backs, so keeping extra players in to block clearly was done at times solely to fortify the pass protection. Expect the extra protection to continue against Cleveland’s formidable pass rush.
The Giants will use other methods to prevent Garrett from wrecking the game. Expect the Giants to move the pocket by rolling Jones out.
The Browns have stars at every level of the defense, with linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and safety Grant Delpit disruptive forces in the middle. Lining up and running at the Browns’ defense doesn’t figure to be as successful an approach as it was against the Commanders.
The Giants will need to incorporate misdirection to slow down Owusu-Koramoah and Delpit. Jet sweeps to wide receivers Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson could be an effective counter to Cleveland’s team speed.
Stiffer test
Nabers’ 18 targets against Washington were tied for the fifth-most for a rookie in a game in the Super Bowl era. He has been targeted on 38.5 percent of the Giants’ passes in the first two games, which is the highest rate in the league.
Jones wasn’t forcing the ball to Nabers despite that excessive target total. The Commanders’ game plan questionably called for a lot of man coverage with weak cornerbacks. They couldn’t guard Nabers, so Jones fed his top option repeatedly for 10 catches, 127 yards and a touchdown.
The Browns will also play a lot of man coverage, but the they have elite corners. Denzel Ward is probably underrated despite being a three-time Pro Bowler. Ward has been a limited participant in practice this week due to a shoulder injury that limited him to 11 snaps in Week 2. A matchup with Ward will be a great challenge for Nabers in his third career game.
Still need more
Giants outside linebackers Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux played better than the box score indicated against the Commanders. But it still wasn’t good enough.
The Giants’ defense is predicated on those players dominating games. They failed to do that against the Commanders’ weak tackle duo.
The Browns could be getting their starting tackles back after each missed the first two games with knee injuries. All-Pro right tackle Jack Conklin has been a full participant in practice this week, so he’s on track to make his season debut. Left tackle Jedrick Wills has been a limited participant this week, so his status is more uncertain.
Regardless of who is at tackle, the Giants need Burns and Thibodeaux to get after Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has been sacked eight times in the first two games.
Nose tackle Dexter Lawrence will tangle with shaky center Ethan Pocic. Pocic figures to receive plenty of help from one of the best guard duos in the league, Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller. Lawrence had an uncharacteristically quiet game against the Commanders.
Can’t get gashed again
Watson has been a mess since the Browns traded for him in 2022 amid sexual assault allegations. The Browns have a talented trio of receivers — Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore — but their passing game has been lackluster.
Cleveland’s offensive line facilitates a strong rushing attack even with star running back Nick Chubb still recovering from a major knee injury. D’Onta Foreman started at running back last week, but managed just 42 yards on 14 carries. The more dynamic Jerome Ford had 64 yards on seven carries.
It doesn’t matter who is at running back for the Browns. The Giants’ run defense simply needs to be much better. The Giants rank 28th in rushing defense, with shoddy tackling and poor run fits major problems against the Commanders.
The heat is on defensive coordinator Shane Bowen to fix that weakness after his unit’s run defense with the Titans was touted when he was hired by the Giants.
The new kicker
The Giants poached Greg Joseph off of the Lions’ practice squad on Tuesday after placing kicker Graham Gano on injured reserve. Gano will miss at least four weeks with the hamstring injury he suffered against the Commanders.
Joseph made 82.2 percent of his field goals as the Vikings’ kicker for the past three seasons. Giants fans may remember Joseph for ruining Christmas in 2022 when he made a 61-yard field goal as time expired to give the Vikings a 27-24 win over New York on Christmas Eve.
Special teams coordinator Michael Ghobrial said there would be a competition this week between Joseph and practice squad kicker Jude McAtamney. The deck is clearly stacked in favor of the veteran Joseph, whom the Giants signed to the active roster, over McAtamney, an undrafted rookie who was already on their practice squad.
Wide right
A few factors contributed to increasing the degree of difficulty after Gano was injured on the opening kickoff of Sunday’s game and Jamie Gillan was pressed into taking over as the place-kicker.
Gillan, who has made 1-of-2 field goal attempts during his six-year career, said he doesn’t practice place-kicking, “because it’s taxing on the leg.”
“It’s a totally different movement for my muscles, and I don’t want to fatigue a different part of my muscles because I’m getting to ready to punt on Sunday,” Gillan said.
Gillan said kicking puts more strain on the groin and the quad than punting. Still, Gillan said he was comfortable he could step in on Sunday, but he wasn’t given another opportunity after missing his first point after attempt.
Another twist to the operation is that Gillan is a lefty. So when backup quarterback Drew Lock had to replace Gillan as the holder, it was a completely foreign process. Lock had never held for Gillan or any other lefty kickers. Lock didn’t spin the laces when he took the snap on Gillan’s PAT, so they were facing the right sideline. Gillan hooked his kick wide right.
He called it
The Giants are facing the exact scenario general manager Joe Schoen outlined during a phone call at the combine shown on “Hard Knocks.” Schoen was explaining the urgency to get a quality backup quarterback because “we can’t start off 0-3 until (Jones) gets healthy.”
Even with Jones healthy, the Giants are now staring at an 0-3 start as they head into a road game as 6.5-point underdogs. The Giants don’t figure to be favored in a game until their Week 9 rematch with the Commanders at home.
Schoen was wary of a slow start even before the schedule was released. Things could snowball quickly based on this upcoming schedule.
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Prediction:
Browns 16, Giants 10. I’m expecting a better defensive performance from the Giants to keep the game close against an unimposing Browns offense. But I just can’t see the Giants scoring much against this Browns defense.
(Photo: Luke Johnson / Imagn Images)
