After an all-out sprint through their first two games and having two wins to show for it, the Bills have had 10 full days to recuperate and prepare for Week 3. And they’ll be visited on Monday night by an 0-2 Jaguars team full of disappointment after a slow start to their year.
What stood out around the Bills’ Orchard Park facilities this week? And what do the Jaguars present to potentially challenge the Bills in the matchup?
Here are a few Bills’ thoughts as they attempt to make it three-for-three in 2024.
Terrel Bernard likely to escape IR
In an ordinarily truncated game week, teams would need to get test results and then quickly decide by the following Saturday whether a player would require the minimum injured reserve timeline of four weeks or if they could avoid it altogether. For the Bills, with starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard and his injured pectoral, that extra time likely helped inform their decision or even gave him a mini head start on his healing time. On Saturday, ahead of the game, head coach Sean McDermott said that he believes they will not need to put Bernard on IR, though he wouldn’t fully commit to it as it wasn’t official at this point.
That’s better than how McDermott talked about the Taron Johnson situation the previous week when the coach left IR on the table in the days leading up to the Dolphins game. Johnson avoided IR, so it seems like a good bet that Bernard will do the same. That’s a massive development for the Bills, especially with three huge road games coming up against the Ravens, Texans and Jets. By avoiding IR, the logic of not needing four games to return to action indicates that Bernard should be ready to play by the Jets game, at least. That same logic would point to Johnson being ready to play by the Texans game, at least. As for Johnson, he was spotted in the locker room this week for the first time since his Week 1 forearm injury. Notably, he had no wrap or cast on the injury, which is a good sign. Both Bernard and Johnson were ruled out for the Jaguars game, but some big help is likely on the way in short order.
The Jaguars run defense is no joke
There are several reasons why the Jaguars are a slightly deceiving 0-2 opponent for the Bills, and their run defense is chief among them. Led by linebackers Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd, the Jaguars have made it extremely difficult on their opponent’s ground game — and against two teams who love to run the ball. First, it was the Dolphins in Week 1, to which the Jaguars impressively hemmed their running backs in for only 70 yards on 24 carries. In Week 2, the Browns popped them for one 36-yard run to Jerome Ford, though that was a wide rush on a 4th-and-1 play that the Jaguars sold out to stop the attempt. On all other plays, the Jaguars limited the Browns running backs to only 65 yards on 21 carries. So, outside of one play, the other 97.8 percent of rush attempts against the Jaguars’ defense have yielded only three yards per carry.
This would not be a problem for most years for the Bills, considering they have primarily been pass-heavy, but that has not been the case in 2024. Since he took over in 2023, offensive coordinator Joe Brady has been more committed to running the ball than his predecessors, and with it now being a strength of the offense, it’s become a staple of their attack.
Part of it is how teams defend elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen by sitting in two-high most of the game. Another piece is that in last week’s Week 2 win over the Dolphins, the game script dictated a run-heavy approach in the second half, which influenced those numbers. Regardless, the running game is the most prominent it’s been in the Bills’ offense over the last few seasons and the offensive line has been a big reason for that. This Jaguars game will be an excellent test to see how far they’ve come as a rushing unit. And if it doesn’t go as well as it has over the last two games, is Brady willing to pivot to more of a pass-heavy approach to get the job done? Either way, we’ll learn much about the offense in this matchup.
Jaguars coverage tendency is a test for the WR group
Along with a challenging run defense, the Bills will encounter a defense that has used a higher rate of man coverage in 2024 than any other team in the league. Through their first two games, the Bills have encountered man coverage on only 38.8 percent of their snaps, according to TruMedia. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been in man coverage for 55.4 percent of their defensive snaps. And against a similarly explosive offense to the Bills, the Dolphins in Week 1, the Jaguars were in man coverage on 66.2 percent of their snaps. Why is this important?
Over the first two weeks, the two outside receivers with the highest snap counts have been Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins, and each comes with individual questions about their ability to separate. Coleman is the big question mark, as he has accounted for a far higher rate of minimal separation than any other receiver on the roster. Of Coleman’s 37 routes run in 2024, he has had 1.5 or fewer yards of separation on 27 percent of his routes, according to Next Gen Stats. The next closest receiver on the Bills roster is Marquez Valdes-Scantling at almost 17 percent. Separation past 10 yards has been an issue for Coleman during his first training camp, so this is likely a big opportunity for him to show there’s more to his game than just being a short-yardage receiver who can occasionally go win a jump ball. It’s worth watching, but less so for Hollins, who has shown he could separate earlier in his career. But he’s also 31 years old, right around when the separation skills usually weaken. It will be an even more critical factor if the Jaguars limit the Bills’ rushing game the same way they have to opponents in the first two games.
But this is also an opportunity for two players in particular to shine who have potential plus matchups in the slot — tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receiver Khalil Shakir. The Jaguars’ top two slot defenders are Darnell Savage and Jarrian Jones, and it remains to be seen how they’ll deploy them against the Bills for different personnel groupings. Savage was up in the air heading into Saturday’s practice, and if he isn’t available that could give the Bills even more of an edge in the slot. But either way, Kincaid and Shakir have the route-running skills to win in this matchup on a pretty consistent basis. Shakir has had some success so far this season, but those waiting on Kincaid’s first big game may get their wish in this one. Kincaid is a potential significant mismatch in the Bills’ favor should the Jaguars play heavy man coverage again this week.
Was the MVS usage a sign of a gameday lineup switch?
Speaking of the receivers, given that their top four of Coleman, Shakir, Hollins and Curtis Samuel are all healthy, it calls into question where Marquez Valdes-Scantling fits in now that the team has also gotten healthier at other positions. Last week against the Dolphins, Valdes-Scantling had only four snaps total — half of which came on the final run-out-the-clock drive before backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky took a knee twice to close things out. And this was in a game plan with a much higher rate of three-receiver sets than in Week 1. Valdes-Scantling had only one snap in the first half, and perhaps more illuminating, he didn’t take a single special teams snap.
With defensive ends Dawuane Smoot and rookie Javon Solomon getting close to a return from injury, it puts Valdes-Scantling’s game day spot in jeopardy. Smoot, if healthy enough to play, will immediately factor into the defensive line rotation. Meanwhile, Solomon can also do that to a smaller degree while giving the Bills some reps on the core four of their special teams units as he showed all of training camp. It would not be a surprise if Valdes-Scantling is inactive on Monday night.
Joe Andreessen closing in on his pro debut?
Had it not been for a late-week injury to Smoot, Buffalo native and linebacker Joe Andreessen very likely would have made his professional debut. From the way the Bills made it sound after the Week 1 win over the Cardinals, the Smoot injury started a domino effect that changed things around on defense and special teams units, to where they needed to elevate a fifth defensive end from the practice squad while turning Ja’Marcus Ingram from a likely healthy scratch to active on game day. Then again, with the Smoot, Solomon and Johnson injuries, having Ingram up in Week 2 was also necessary, leading to another inactive for Andreessen. But now, with Bernard set to miss Week 3 and Baylon Spector in the starting lineup, it could mean Andreessen makes his professional debut on Monday Night Football under the bright lights of Highmark Stadium. He’s been a standout on special teams all summer. It would not be surprising if he makes a big hit or two.
Bills projected inactives: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, OT Ryan Van Demark, LB Terrel Bernard, LB Edefuan Ulofoshio, NCB Taron Johnson
Prediction: Bills 23, Jaguars 19
This game might be more of a slog than their opposite win-loss records indicate. The Jaguars have talent on defense and, with their run defense and man coverage, can potentially challenge the Bills’ skill positions differently than they’ve seen so far in 2024. The Jaguars defense looks like a good unit on film. It might take some sustained drives and more reliance on the passing game than what we’ve seen from the Bills so far this season. Led by Kincaid and Shakir, the Bills have two pieces to help lead the way.
But something seems off about the Jaguars offense. It’s likely led by some offensive line troubles so far this season. They should be able to move the ball against a backup-heavy Bills defense, but the Bills will major in their classic bend-but-don’t-break, whole-is-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts style on third downs once the Jaguars cross midfield to make it work this week. As long as they avoid rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr. making a big play deep down the field for a touchdown, they should be able to limit the Jaguars’ point total. Ultimately, I think the Bills have enough offensive firepower to break through the Jaguars’ defense for a pair of touchdowns and some other smaller scoring drives to get a close win.
(Top photo of James Cook: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
