SEC newcomer Texas is No. 1 on my ballot again and the overwhelming choice for No. 1 in the AP Top 25. The SEC’s Georgia is No. 2, and the SEC’s Alabama is No. 4. The latter two play each other this week, and the winner will make a case for jumping Texas.
But what about a fourth SEC candidate for No. 1?
1. The most satisfying part of being a college football fan is watching your team win big games. Even if wins against ranked teams “at the time of the game” stats can be misleading — it’s no secret ranked teams are often overrated and unranked teams are often underrated, especially early in the season — those wins are nonetheless hugely satisfying in the moment. Add them up over time, and wins in matchups that are perceived as big games are a pretty good barometer for fan satisfaction and the ability of a program to be a contender.
To say Josh Heupel has flipped the script on that front at Tennessee would be an understatement.
After losing his first three games against ranked opponents in 2021, Heupel has led the Vols to wins in 10 of their past 15 games vs. teams ranked in the AP poll. Tennessee’s previous four coaches — Lane Kiffin, Derek Dooley, Butch Jones and Jeremy Pruitt (plus Brady Hoke for one interim bowl trip) — went 9-47 against AP-ranked teams from 2009 through 2020.
Saturday’s 25-15 win at Oklahoma was all but over by halftime and more dominant than the score makes it appear, and it was also Tennessee’s first road win against a team ranked in the top 15 since 2006 at No. 10 Georgia. It’s the type of game Tennessee went a long time without winning. Now, it’s become the expectation.
Had a little something extra. pic.twitter.com/5R09sSlFb9
— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) September 22, 2024
2. No, NC State (which the Vols beat by 41) doesn’t appear like it belongs anywhere near the poll after giving up 59 points to Clemson, and Oklahoma has major quarterback questions that make its Top 25 presence debatable. Still, I’ve seen enough from Tennessee to think that it belongs in the top tier of the rankings, with at least a small case for No. 1 alongside its SEC rivals.
I voted the Vols third, bumping them ahead of Ohio State. The Buckeyes may still prove to be the best team, but Texas, Georgia and Tennessee all have better wins to go with talent I think can stack up with Ohio State. Yes, even Tennessee, from rising star quarterback Nico Iamaleava to a ferocious defense that’s allowed 28 points in four games. According to College Poll Tracker, I’m one of five voters to put the Vols in the top three, helping elevate them to No. 5 in the poll.
Alabama and Georgia will have the spotlight this week, but here’s betting that Tennessee beats at least one of them in the regular season and hangs around the No. 1 conversation.
|
Team
|
AP rank
|
My rank
|
Record
|
|---|---|---|---|
 Texas |
1
|
1
|
4-0
|
 Georgia |
2
|
2
|
3-0
|
 Tennessee |
5
|
3
|
4-0
|
 Ohio State |
3
|
4
|
3-0
|
 Alabama |
4
|
5
|
3-0
|
 Miami |
7
|
6
|
4-0
|
 Oregon |
8
|
7
|
3-0
|
 Ole Miss |
6
|
8
|
4-0
|
 Penn State |
9
|
9
|
3-0
|
 Utah |
10
|
10
|
4-0
|
 Missouri |
11
|
11
|
4-0
|
 Michigan |
12
|
12
|
3-1
|
 Clemson |
17
|
13
|
2-1
|
 USC |
13
|
14
|
2-1
|
 Iowa State |
18
|
15
|
3-0
|
 Louisville |
15
|
16
|
3-0
|
 BYU |
22
|
17
|
4-0
|
 LSU |
14
|
18
|
3-1
|
 Illinois |
19
|
19
|
4-0
|
 Indiana |
NR
|
20
|
4-0
|
 Oklahoma |
21
|
21
|
3-1
|
 James Madison |
NR
|
22
|
3-0
|
 Oklahoma State |
20
|
23
|
3-1
|
 Kansas State |
23
|
24
|
3-1
|
 Iowa |
NR
|
25
|
3-1
|
 Notre Dame |
16
|
NR
|
3-1
|
 Texas A&M |
24
|
NR
|
3-1
|
 Boise State |
25
|
NR
|
2-1
|
3. There was a time last decade when Tennessee and Nebraska felt similar to each other: They last won national and conference titles in the 1990s, and they had fallen into seemingly endless cycles of despair.
Tennessee has escaped; Nebraska still has not.
The Huskers climbed into the AP poll after beating Colorado, but their stay lasted just two weeks. On Friday, they lost to Illinois in overtime in a matchup of ranked teams. It was the Cornhuskers’ 25th consecutive loss to a ranked opponent dating back to a win against Oregon on Sept. 27, 2016. Nebraska’s previous longest losing streak to ranked teams? Fifteen, from 1940-52.
The current losing streak to AP-ranked opponents is the second-longest active drought among Power 4 teams, shorter than only Rutgers.
| Team | Streak | Last ranked win |
|---|---|---|
 Rutgers |
40
|
Nov. 12, 2009
|
 Nebraska |
25
|
Sept. 17, 2016
|
 Vanderbilt |
17
|
Oct. 19, 2019
|
 Northwestern |
8
|
Nov. 21, 2020
|
|
Indiana |
12
|
Dec. 5, 2020
|
 California |
9
|
Dec. 5, 2020
|
From 1970 through October 2001, Nebraska went 80-44-3 against teams ranked in the AP poll. Since a shocking blowout loss to Colorado on Black Friday in 2001, the Huskers are 15-60.
4. Friday was a rare showcase with big-game billing for Illinois, which has had a few Top 25 wins in recent years but achieved something much rarer: a win in a matchup of two-ranked teams, with the spotlight that comes with it. Illinois had not played in a ranked vs. ranked matchup since a 2008 loss at Penn State; it had not won one since 2001 at Ohio State.
Now, the Illini — No. 19 on my ballot and in the poll — are set for their second ranked matchup in a row as they prepare for a prime-time date with the No. 9 Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. Illinois will be trying for its third consecutive win against a ranked opponent for the first time since 1990.
5. Is Michigan’s offense sustainable against top opponents? That’s an unanswered question after the Wolverines beat No. 11 USC despite passing for 32 yards. But the victory against the Trojans was a big-game jolt of confidence in Year 1 under Sherrone Moore after the Wolverines were trounced by Texas two weeks earlier.
Like Nebraska and Tennessee, Michigan had a long run of big-game struggles. Now, it’s won 11 of its last 14 games against AP-ranked opponents. I jumped the Wolverines up eight spots on my ballot to No. 12, giving credit for a quality win against a USC team that has its own ranked win against LSU (I dropped USC to 14th, just a couple of spots behind).
6. I kept Notre Dame off my ballot each of the past two weeks, and though it could have regained a spot given that I dropped five teams off, this wasn’t the time. After all, Northern Illinois — the team that beat the Irish in South Bend — lost to Buffalo on Saturday. Notre Dame moved up a spot to 16th, but I’m one of seven voters who did not include the Irish this week.
Notre Dame still appears one-dimensional on offense behind quarterback Riley Leonard. The opportunity to gain poll momentum comes next week when No. 15 Louisville visits. Win that, and I’ll have no problem recognizing that 1) upsets happen, 2) Notre Dame has improved and 3) it belongs in the poll. But, I’m skeptical.
7. Congrats to Buffalo, which outlasted NIU in overtime to earn its first road win against an AP-ranked opponent. Buffalo’s only previous AP-ranked win was against No. 12 Ball State in the 2008 MAC title game.
With NIU falling out, Boise State inched in at No. 25 despite being idle, making it the Group of 5’s lone representative. I did not vote for the Broncos this week, but I did include James Madison at No. 22 after the 3-0 Dukes put on a show in a 70-50 win at North Carolina. They got my lone G5 vote after NIU, Toledo and Memphis all lost. Boise State can stake a stronger claim if it beats 4-0 Washington State this Saturday.
8. BYU’s 38-9 rout of No. 13 Kansas State was its fourth-largest win against an AP-ranked opponent — and largest against a team ranked in the top 15. It allowed the Cougars to make an unexpected jump into the Top 25 at 4-0. They’re No. 22 in the poll and No. 17 on my ballot.
I had no issue moving them that far because there is so much fluidity in the second half of the rankings. I ranked three teams that are not in the poll: Indiana (20th), JMU (22nd) and Iowa (25th). They just edged out a long list of candidates, including Washington State, UNLV, Boston College, Boise State, Pitt and Navy, among others.
9. My ballot is pretty similar to the AP poll at the top, so there are few surprises in a College Football Playoff bracket based on my rankings:
I still have Missouri as the last team in, but now the rest of the panel has moved in my direction. Through the first three weeks, Missouri was perhaps the team I was lowest on compared to the poll. Now, we’re aligned at No. 11 after its double-overtime win against Vanderbilt. I would have knocked Missouri down a bit, but the losses piling up behind it made it difficult. One-loss teams like Michigan, Clemson and USC are right there, though.
10. Let’s end by circling back to a big game: We’ve seen plenty of top-five matchups within the SEC in recent years, but No. 4 Alabama at No. 2 Georgia is the first September top-five matchup in the conference since Florida and Tennessee played each other three times in four years as top-five teams in September from 1996-99.
Perhaps it lacks do-or-die stakes this early in the season in the 12-team Playoff era, but it’s still a tone-setter in the post-Nick Saban era with SEC championship stakes, Heisman Trophy stakes and Playoff stakes in that the loser will have a slimmer margin for error against a rugged schedule.
The SEC has had 25 regular-season matchups of top-five teams. Five of the winners have gone on to win national titles: 2022 Georgia, 2020 Alabama, 2019 LSU, 2012 Alabama and 1996 Florida. Of course, one loser has gone on to win a title, as well: 2011 Alabama, which got BCS title game revenge on LSU.
(Photo: Brian Bahr / Getty Images)
