Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
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Running Back Touches
Kyren Williams was No. 2 and was a tough rank, though well inside the playing window in Week 3. We learned that the quality of Sean McVay’s coaching and the QB play of Matthew Stafford is so elite that Williams shouldn’t be ranked much below his expected market share, which puts him in the top 10 RB conversation, at least.
J.K. Dobbins managers were disappointed in Week 3, but he was sixth in market share. The Chargers environment is so severely compromised now with injuries to the offensive line and QB Justin Herbert that this coming week, at least, is likely to be brutal. But Dobbins should still be in your plans going forward. He’s No. 1 in the NFL in rushing yards per carry over expected.
Zach Charbonnet was in the top 10 and this is a good offense, for sure. I thought Geno Smith was exposed last year as a limited QB but I was wrong about that. He’s closer to 2022 in both fantasy and reality. This makes Charbonnet a very attractive back for as long as the oft-injured Kenneth Walker remains out.
Brian Robinson Jr. got elevated action given the concussion that Austin Ekeler suffered, but the historic rookie performance of Jayden Daniels in Week 3 gives me confidence that Robinson will get the touchdown equity needed to be about a top 15 RB.
Zack Moss in the top 20 is a big win for his drafters considering he was about a 10th-round pick. Chase Brown is still viable in the top 40, though.
Carson Steele did dominate the backfield action but this was not Isiah Pacheco-like usage. It is useful though. He’s a low-end RB2. Samaje Perine ranked 43rd and is a bench player.
De’Von Achane is in a terrible offense as long as Tua Tagovailoa is out and is not likely to again get the outsized market share he received in Week 2. He’s been one of the league’s most inefficient runners this year.
Bucky Irving’s 25th ranking is expected to rise now that Rachaad White has lost his hold on the starting RB job, a development I said was likely here last week. Let’s expect RB20 going forward but there is upside from there given these moves. But I must note his advanced data in yards over expected is slightly below average.
Javonte Williams has been a bust but no one has emerged in Denver. Last week a third back got involved, and even though Williams was No. 39 in the model, the other backs were No. 38 (Tyler Badie) and No. 52 (Jaleel McLaughlin). Williams has been the third least efficient runner (yards gained vs. expected yards).
Receiver Targets
I lost a big game with Jauan Jennings on my bench in a super big league and, to be honest, I never even considered him. The guy had two TDs the prior two seasons combined. I picked him up off of waivers for nothing after FAAB ran and no one claimed him. This all perfectly describes “Fantasy: 2024.” This 49ers WR situation is too fluid to bet big on Jennings. He’s going to keep getting snaps though even when everyone returns.
Brandon Aiyuk did finish seventh in target share, so his lack of performance was more on him than the play calling.
Diontae Johnson is in play now with Andy Dalton at the controls. Let’s call him a WR2 in PPR. You should not be asking questions about whether to play him.
Rashee Rice is the big fish in a much smaller than expected passing pond in Kansas City. You wish this was the 5,000-yard passing environment some predicted, but in the current environment, which should be expected to last, Rice can still be Amon-Ra St. Brown if he keeps pulling close to a 40% market share.
I guarantee it will get better for Courtland Sutton and you’ll be happy you roster him… but it’s not going to be this week against the Jets.
Dallas Goedert was the No. 1 tight end. That was due to massive Philly WR injuries.
With 11 targets, Cole Kmet is more interesting, but he had just a 21% market share, which we will happily take. He seems to have squeezed out the washed Gerald Everett. But if you’re desperate at tight end, note that Cade Otton was 24%. That was likely matchup based given the Denver defense and would actually make Tyler Conklin (Jets) the play in Week 4.
Darnell Mooney at No. 16 is the dream those of us who liked him had this summer.
Davante Adams was 22%, just 30th, and now they may make a QB change in Las Vegas. Adams has to get back to Aaron Rodgers somehow.
Garrett Wilson has run the gauntlet of the best CBs in football so far and that continues in Week 4 with Patrick Surtain. Just hang in there. He’s doing something at least. It’s going to get way better (unless Adams does come).
George Pickens has to be top 10 in this depressed passing environment in Pittsburgh, not 34th.
Aaron Jones was the top running back in targets but all the way down at No. 39. Note that Zack Moss was over our 15% target goal for complete backs (he’s also the goal-line runner).
Rome Odunze is going to be overrated by the market this week. He should be around WR40, in line with his target share last week. He’s a borderline flex play in deeper formats.
(Top photo of Diontae Johnson: Steve Marcus/Getty Images)
