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Good morning. Last night saw Josh Allen and the Bills dominate the Jaguars 47-10, while Jayden Daniels was nearly flawless in the Commanders’ 38-33 upset over the Bengals.
On Tuesdays, we go heavy on fantasy football, but we have other stuff today as well:
- Week 4 must-adds
- Chris Long on Philly
- Thoughts vs. Reality: Jauan Jennings
- Poll: Early-season surprises
Fantasy Reset: Week 4 Waivers, Concerns
This past weekend, the top-scoring fantasy player — 49ers WR Jauan Jennings — was essentially free (and unfortunately benched) in most leagues. I missed on him last week, incorrectly pointing instead to rookies and Brandon Aiyuk to fill the void for injury-plagued San Francisco.
My Week 4 must-adds from among widely available players, assuming Carson Steele and Bucky “you can’t tackle me” Irving are already taken:
No. 1: Jets RB Braelon Allen. Anyone watching Thursday’s game — when Allen had 55 yards on 11 runs, catching three passes — might’ve thought he was the Jets’ best RB. He looks the part, and the stats agree; he ranks No. 2 in the NFL in rushing success rate (63 percent) while averaging 5.1 yards per carry. Just needs more opportunities.
No. 2: Colts WR Josh Downs. One stat by PFF’s Nathan Jahnke tells me all I need to know about Anthony Richardson’s telepathic favorite target: Downs ran just 16 routes on Sunday, but was targeted on five of them. The second-year player could lead this team in catches, so look for him to improve on last year’s top-45 fantasy finish.
No. 3: Packers RB Emanuel Wilson. Josh Jacobs sees the volume (third in NFL with 62 carries), but it’s Wilson who looks more explosive, leading Green Bay running backs in yards per carry (5.0) and yards per reception (9.3). League-wide, Wilson is No. 3 in rushing success rate, and like Allen, just needs more touches.
No. 4: Steelers QB Justin Fields. He should be the long-term starter in Pittsburgh, and he has yet to unlock his running game, a crucial part of his QB7 fantasy ranking in 2022. That could come against a Colts defense allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (179.0). Indy also just let a previously struggling Caleb Williams record 363 passing yards.
Deeper leagues:
- Broncos RB Tyler Badie took nine carries for 70 yards in their first win
- Jets WR Allen Lazard has three touchdowns as Aaron Rodgers’ trusted weapon
- Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson has a high PPR floor
- Seahawks TE Noah Fant caught all six of his targets for 60 yards in Week 3.
I’m concerned with:
- Colts QB Anthony Richardson. Indianapolis won despite the young QB, who still consistently misses layups. Based on the Completion Percentage Over Expected metric, he has been 15.7 percent less likely than the average NFL quarterback to complete any given pass this season. Across the past 10 years, 135 quarterbacks have attempted at least 100 passes, and Richardson’s 2024 CPOE currently ranks 134th. Of 135. It’s that bad.
Someone who looks like a league-winner:
- Eagles RB Saquon Barkley. Since Week 1, OC Kellen Moore’s offense has run through Barkley, who finished Sunday with 17 carries for 147 yards and two touchdowns. As Brooks Kubena noted, fantasy’s highest-scoring running back now has 53 more touches than any other Eagles player. It should remain that way with Jalen Hurts struggling.
Thoughts vs. Reality
Thought: I’m worried about Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Reality: You should be. There’s no guarantee Tua Tagovailoa returns this season, and while I expect Tyler Huntley to start over Tim Boyle (and be an upgrade over Skylar Thompson, who was injured Sunday), both Hill and Waddle still have enough name value that your fantasy team can fetch a decent player in return. That’s not guaranteed after Week 4.
Thought: I should bench Mark Andrews. Reality: Yes, sit him. As KC Joyner explains in his Week 3 Recap, this year’s biggest fantasy bust played just 20 snaps this Sunday and ranks fifth on the Ravens in short-pass targets (five). He ran just four routes on Sunday, seeing one target. That’s happening for a reason, and I’m not starting Andrews until it’s fixed. At least he’s blocking well? Alternatives include Cole Kmet (if Keenan Allen sits) or Zach Ertz.
Thought: Should I buy the Jauan Jennings breakout game? Reality: Yes, though it depends. Kyle Shanahan has two specialties: scheming receivers open and looking upset. He did plenty of both in the 49ers’ Week 3 collapse, with Jennings as the main beneficiary of the former. After I watched all 11 of Jennings’ catches, it’s clear to me that the 2025 free agent is legit, but needs the injury opportunities to be a factor. Don’t overspend to acquire.
Thought: I should add a promising committee running back. Reality: Don’t.
In Chicago, yes, Roschon Johnson is a third-down and two-minute-drill back who caught four passes on Sunday while mustering more rushing yards than any other Bear. But the sophomore is battling both the floundering D’Andre Swift and the capable Khalil Herbert in a bad Chicago offense.
In New York, Tyrone Tracy and his 4.6 yards per carry are tempting, but Brian Daboll made sure the Giants went out and paid Devin Singletary this offseason. Barring injury, Tracy’s not taking over anytime soon.
For more:
- Check out KC Joyner’s Week 3 Fantasy Recap
- Read Jake Ciely’s Week 4 Waiver Wire column
- Look ahead in the Dynasty League 2025 Rookie Preview
What Dianna’s Hearing: Finding the right feeling in Philly
We played a quick game with two-time Super Bowl champion Chris Long on the Tuesday episode of the “Scoop City” podcast. Among other things, my co-host Chase Daniel and I wanted to know what Chris, who played the final two seasons of his career in Philadelphia, makes of the Nick Sirianni-Jalen Hurts dynamic after a rocky road to a 2-1 record.
Here’s a (lightly edited) version of what Chris had to say…
“I think the thing that’s more concerning than [the Sirianni-Hurts] relationship is the decision-making of the head coach … We’re all of a sudden above taking three points in games that are going to be defensive battles, that are going to be about possessions.
“I like Nick. Right now he is under a microscope because of the decisions he’s making. He’s not even calling the game, so you’ve got to own the feeling of the flow of the game.
“I would give him a mirror — this is not the same team that went to the Super Bowl two years ago where you’re going to score 40 points per game; you sometimes have to lay up. And when you’ve got Saquon Barkley, you’ve got to give him the damn ball. You saw what happened: Any three-yard gain can turn into 70.”
Back to you, Jacob.
Around the NFL
Vikings QB Sam Darnold had an MRI on his knee that confirmed no structural damage. The resurgent veteran isn’t expected to miss any time and should start against Green Bay this week.
Packers HC Matt LaFleur said QB Jordan Love (knee) will begin practicing this week on a limited basis. There’s a good chance Love starts against Minnesota, bringing an end to the remarkable run of Malik Willis.
The Steelers were dealt two injury blows in their backfield. Najee Harris had his right arm in a sling on Monday, while Jaylen Warren had an MRI on his knee. It’s wait and see for now.
Raiders HC Antonio Pierce did not rule out a quarterback change for Week 4 after Aidan O’Connell closed out their Week 3 loss to the Panthers.
The Bills took the top spot in The Athletic’s Power Rankings, though a Week 4 battle in Baltimore will be telling.
Yesterday’s most-clicked: From draft afterthoughts to the NFL’s first-round, the eerily similar paths of Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels.
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