As the only Canadian male major champion, Mike Weir is deeply familiar with the underdog role.
The 5-9, lefthanded Weir ascended to the top of the sport in the early 2000s, culminating in a Masters victory in 2003. As captain of the International team this week at the Presidents Cup, he’ll try to do something arguably more unlikely: finally toppling a deeper, heavily-favored United States juggernaut.
Here are the top numbers and notes to know entering the week at Royal Montreal.
1. The overwhelming question entering seemingly every Presidents Cup is if it’s a competition even worth continuing. The International side has won one time in 15 contests, and it was in 1998. Nick Price was the second-highest-ranked International player that week. Price is now 67 years old. Google was founded three months prior. Tom Kim was born four years later.
Adam Scott, a pillar of golfing class for a generation, is playing in his 11th Presidents Cup this week at Royal Montreal. He was a 23-year-old rookie in South Africa in 2003 when the two sides tied. The Internationals have lost in every one of his subsequent appearances.
Historically speaking, the Presidents Cup isn’t akin to Europe vs. USA in the Ryder Cup. It’s closer to Harlem Globetrotters vs. Washington Generals.
But signs of life have been evident in the last two Presidents Cups held outside of the United States. In South Korea in 2015, the entire Cup came down to the last hole of the final match, with Bill Haas knocking off Sangmoon Bae, 2 up. Five years ago at Royal Melbourne, leaning heavily on an analytical approach, the Internationals surged to a 4-point lead through three sessions. The Americans won Saturday afternoon foursomes then dominated Sunday singles to retain the Cup.
Wait for it …
A fresh cut for @MinWoo27Lee ✂️#IntlTeam pic.twitter.com/NzNEESZtVe
— Presidents Cup International Team (@IntlTeam) September 23, 2024
2. The inescapable caveat to that promising trend in the competition is the massive talent drain incurred by the International team since 2019. Five of the 12 players from the Royal Melbourne roster – Cam Smith, Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer, Louis Oosthuizen and Marc Leishman – have all long since departed the PGA Tour for LIV Golf, losing their eligibility in the process. As has Branden Grace, who went 5-0-0 at Incheon in 2015.
Several key American players have left, too, but those departures have opened the door for stronger reinforcements. The top three captain’s picks for Davis Love III in 2022 at Quail Hollow – Jordan Spieth, Collin Morikawa and Max Homa – had a combined match record of 11-1-0. Meanwhile, the combined total of Team USA’s world ranking – 138 – was pretty close to Taylor Pendrith’s OWGR that week on his own (109).
3. To turn the tide, the International team simply must get better in foursomes (alternate shot). Since 2007, the Americans have obliterated them in that part of the competition, outscoring the Internationals 56 1/2 to 23 1/2. The Internationals have not won foursomes in the Presidents Cup since 1998, the only time they have ever won the Cup.
Thursday morning in 2022, the Americans punched the gas pedal in that format and never looked back. They streaked out to a 3-0 lead in foursomes that day with none of the matches reaching the 18th hole. The Internationals were never closer than four points down following any session all week.
4. However, four-ball has been a different story recently, especially when the Americans are on foreign soil. Since 2015, the Internationals have doubled up on the U.S. in that format when playing on friendly shores, outscoring them 12 to 6. If the International side pulls off an upset this week in Canada and wins the Cup for a second time, they likely will look back at Thursday morning foursomes in 2019 as a turning point. Though they didn’t go on to win that week, that session’s 4-1 result was a roundhouse kick that put Tiger Woods’ squad on its heels. More importantly, it validated a data-driven strategic approach employed by captain Ernie Els that laid a blueprint for the Internationals for years to come.
5. It will take an incredible amount of game-plan brilliance for the International side to overcome the roster depth advantage the Americans have. The Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) still has some validity to it this week as a comparison tool since it’s only looking at players still on the PGA Tour. Four of the 12 International players are in the top 25 of the OWGR. Every one of the Americans holds that distinction.
Over the last three Presidents Cups, there have been 11 International players who were outside the top 50 that week in the OWGR. Their combined match record is 12-19-5, a point average of 0.47. The bottom three Americans in OWGR in that span have a record of 9-11-11, a points per match rate of 0.65.
6. Analyzing the two rosters in other ways yields similar outputs. On the PGA Tour this season, the American side has the better average ranking in strokes gained total, off the tee, approach, around the green and putting. They also better the Internationals in average overall proximity to the hole, and proximity from 50-125, 100-125, 125-150 and 150-175 yards.
Approach play is where the Americans have the largest statistical advantage. There are 11 players ranked in the top 50 this season on the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach per round competing this week at Royal Montreal. Eight of them play for America. There are three outside the top 100 in that statistic, and each are representing the Internationals (Min Woo Lee, Mackenzie Hughes and Jason Day).
7. In the three-year run where he’s blossomed into a superstar, Scottie Scheffler has scuffled in team events. The last time he won a match in the Ryder or Presidents Cup was a singles dusting of Jon Rahm at Whistling Straits in 2021, about five months before Scheffler’s first career PGA Tour victory at the 2022 WM Phoenix Open. Since then, he’s lost or halved all eight matches played (0-5-3).
From 2000 through 2019, there were eight instances of the current world No.1 player representing the Americans at the Presidents Cup. Each had a winning record for the week, posting a combined line of 27-14-3. That ended with Scheffler’s 0-3-1 performance at Quail Hollow. Will the script change for Scheffler this week?
8. Mike Weir has three fellow Canadians on his roster this week, each a captain’s pick: Corey Conners, Taylor Pendrith and Mackenzie Hughes. Weir hopes his countrymen can dial up a similar performance to the one he put on in 2007 at Royal Montreal, when he earned a team-high 3 1/2 points – capped off by a singles win over Woods, 1 up.
Since Weir’s brilliant week 17 years ago, International players competing on home soil have been a mixed bag. In 2011, five Aussies combined to go 7-14-1, with Geoff Ogilvy (3-1-1) the lone standout. Bae, the lone Korean playing in 2015, was terrific until his disastrous flubbed chip on the final hole of the event. Smith and Leishman were a combined 2-3-3 at Royal Melbourne.
While Hughes is a rookie, Conners and Pendrith lost every match they played two years ago in North Carolina.
9. When it comes to the alternate shot format, this week’s setup draws a very distinct pattern on which players fit best in terms of teeing off on odd and even holes.
All four par 3s on the course are odd holes (5, 7, 13 and 17), taking driver out of that player’s hands four times and making approach play more significant. On the flipside of that, players teeing off on even holes might hit as many as eight more birdie putts during the round than their partner. Translation: get your better iron player teeing off on the first hole, and the player you want standing over more birdie putts teeing off at No. 2.
Take one example of a potential International pairing in foursomes that might seem unconventional but fits analytically speaking: Corey Conners and Jason Day. Day’s biggest weakness this season has been his irons – he’s 144th on tour in strokes gained approach. But he’s been above average off the tee (65th) and excellent putting (ninth). Conners is the best iron player on the International roster (fourth in strokes gained approach) and below tour average on the greens (124th in strokes gained putting).
Having Day tee off on even holes should give him several more birdie putts, while putting Conners in a position to succeed with his iron play more often.
10. Getting off to a quick start is essential in team golf competitions. In 13 of the previous 14 Presidents Cups, one side led after the opening session. In 11 of those 13 years, that team went on to win or retain the Cup. That’s also true in six of the last nine Ryder Cups and 11 of the prior 14 times in the Solheim Cup.
Since 2007, the Americans have a 29-15 point advantage in the opening session of the Presidents Cup. The road to an upset will have to start in earnest on Thursday for the Internationals.
(Top photo of Patrick Cantlay, left, and Xander Schauffele: Ben Jared / PGA Tour via Getty Images)
