NEW YORK — There was much anticipation just a few weeks ago over this three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles, which seemed likely to decide the winner of the American League East. Fast forward to now, and this series is virtually meaningless.
For the Yankees not to clinch the AL East title, they’ll have to finish the season 0-6 while the Orioles finish 6-0. The Orioles have won six consecutive games once this season (June 7-12), but they’ve also been one of the coldest teams in MLB of late, losing 11 of their past 16 games. Even if the Orioles were to sweep the Yankees, the latter will be hosting the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates, who have nothing left to play for, this weekend.
With the division title all but assured and a first-round bye a lock, the focus can start shifting to October. The Yankees still have a few roster decisions to make, but they’ve put themselves in a prime position for the American League to run through the Bronx this October.
Here are five burning questions surrounding the Yankees ahead of postseason baseball.
1. Can regular-season Aaron Judge align with postseason Aaron Judge?
The last image Yankees fans have of Judge in the postseason is from 2022, when he finished 1-for-16 in the American League Championship Series against the Houston Astros. Altogether, Judge ended up 5-for-36 with two home runs and three RBIs in the 2022 postseason. This significant letdown offensively came after he set the AL single-season home run record and was the best offensive player in the sport by 21 percentage points in wRC+.
Homer No. 55 for No. 99 🫡#ALLRISE pic.twitter.com/6ZEM4cp0oo
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 22, 2024
This year, the gap between Judge (216 wRC+) and Juan Soto (179), the second-best offensive player by wRC+, is even wider. Though Judge isn’t chasing 63 home runs, he’s still having the best offensive season since Barry Bonds in 2004. With such dominance at the plate comes the pressure to produce big numbers in October.
Judge is on a fast track to Monument Park, but the legends before him were all judged, fairly or not, on what they did in October and how many rings they finished with. He needs a title to solidify his place in the pantheon of all-time Yankees. The American League is wide-open this year, and the Yankees may be the team to beat. However, to give the Yankees their best chance of winning in October, Judge must perform like the offensive force he’s been all season. While all postseason series have small sample sizes, he hasn’t had a series with an OPS over .800 since the 2019 ALDS against the Minnesota Twins.
2. Has Jasson Domínguez done enough to win the LF job?
Only four qualified hitters have been worse this season than Yankees left fielder Alex Verdugo: Orlando Arcia, Maikel Garcia, Bryan De La Cruz and Ceddanne Rafaela. In the 11 games since his Sept. 9 call-up, Domínguez has two home runs, a double, four RBIs and four stolen bases. Domínguez’s two home runs and one double match Verdugo’s production in the past 21 games he’s started.
Domínguez hasn’t looked great defensively since his call-up, which may be the deciding factor. However, how the Yankees approach this in their final six games could be telling about which way they’re leaning. If Domínguez gets most of the starts, could it be that they’re taking every opportunity to help him gain more comfort in Yankee Stadium’s expansive left field?
In a limited sample size, Domínguez has graded out negatively in outs above average, defensive runs saved, fielding run value, arm runs above average and ultimate zone rating. But if the Yankees want the highest-ceiling bat in the middle of their order, there’s no question the choice would be Domínguez, who offers more power and speed than Verdugo.
3. Who should be their third starting pitcher?
Even if the Yankees play all five games in the ALDS, manager Aaron Boone needs just three starting pitchers due to how the schedule aligns. We know Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are two of the starters, which leaves Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman battling for the third spot.
Schmidt is the safest choice for the Yankees given his performance this season. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 14 starts. Stability is what Schmidt has provided for the Yankees in each of his outings, and that is of extreme value in the postseason. Among all starters with at least 70 innings this season, Schmidt’s 2.37 ERA ranks third behind Reynaldo López and Paul Skenes.
With Austin Wells cooling off at the plate in the past few weeks, Gil may end up winning AL Rookie of the Year. When Gil’s delivery is in sync, there aren’t many pitchers in MLB better than him. He has some of the best strikeout stuff among all MLB starters and ranks in the 68th percentile in hard-hit rate. Gil struggles to find the strike zone when his command is off, leading to free passes. He’s also shown occasional difficulty reining in his emotions. Gil is electric, but there’s a boom-or-bust element with him that the Yankees may prefer to avoid among their three postseason starters.
It’s hard to see Cortes or Stroman being one of the three ALDS starters. Cortes has a better case than Stroman, but neither is better than Schmidt.
4. Which relievers are firmly established in Boone’s circle of trust?
Only three relievers should be firmly cemented in Boone’s innermost circle: Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle and Tim Hill.
Since becoming the de facto closer, Weaver has been virtually unhittable. In the 10 innings pitched since getting his first career save, he has allowed just three hits and struck out a remarkable 22 batters. Kahnle has allowed just two earned runs in his past 25 appearances for the Yankees, holding opposing hitters to a mere .439 OPS during this stretch. Since the Yankees added Hill, he has posted a 1.93 ERA and opponents have a .540 OPS against him. He also has the best ground-ball rate among all pitchers.
Luke. Lights Out. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/FCELliu6J9
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 22, 2024
These three should have every opportunity in high-leverage relief situations. The next group should consist of Cortes, Schmidt/Gil and Ian Hamilton. Cortes and Schmidt possess excellent command, while Gil is a flamethrower who can miss bats. Hamilton has looked sharp since coming off the injured list and is another high-strikeout reliever Boone can utilize.
The medium to low-leverage relievers should be Jake Cousins (depending on whether he can bounce back from his pectoral injury in time) and Clay Holmes. Cousins hasn’t looked crisp in several of his previous outings, likely due to the injury. Holmes has some of the best advanced metrics among all relievers, but it’s just not his year. He’s also struggled with his command lately, and the Yankees can’t afford for him to hang a slider in a big spot.
5. Whose roster spot is in jeopardy?
The Yankees could carry 14 position players if they wanted. This could mean that Duke Ellis, a pinch running option, might take the spot of a potential 13th pitcher. In years past, the Yankees have opted to carry a pinch running specialist (Tim Locastro, Tyler Wade, Greg Allen) on their postseason roster. For reference, the Yankees had 14 position players and 12 pitchers for their 2022 ALDS roster.
While the Yankees do have Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti as speed threats on their bench, neither of them is as fast as Ellis. If the Yankees go this route, their bench could consist of Ellis, Cabrera, Berti, Verdugo/Domínguez and Jose Trevino.
That would leave Trent Grisham off the roster among position players. Grisham has played sparingly, and there isn’t much use for him since Domínguez could play center field in a pinch.
On the pitchers’ side, either Stroman or Mark Leiter Jr. could be in jeopardy of not making the ALDS roster, especially if the Yankees go with 14 position players. Neither pitcher has performed well lately, and neither has a clear role. Both should be deployed only in the lowest-leverage situations, and there’s not much value in creating space for pitchers who won’t see action unless the game is out of reach.
The bullpen has stabilized over the past few weeks, giving the Yankees many options so they won’t have to rely on poor performers when the games matter most.
(Photo of Aaron Judge hitting a solo home run against the Oakland A’s on Saturday: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
