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An update on Cade Horton and a look at 5 under-the-radar Cubs pitching prospects

25 September 2024Last Update :
An update on Cade Horton and a look at 5 under-the-radar Cubs pitching prospects

PHILADELPHIA — The Chicago Cubs finally have shed the label of being completely incapable of developing pitching. In Tuesday’s 6-2 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies, their homegrown ace Justin Steele made his second start after a short injured list-stint, going four innings and giving up just two runs while striking out three and walking none. Steele ends the season with a 3.07 ERA in 134 2/3 innings after missing a combined six weeks with a hamstring injury and then elbow soreness.

Despite how strong Chicago’s starters were this year, this season was ultimately a little disappointing with how the young pitchers impacted the big-league club, largely due to injuries. Jordan Wicks will end the season on the IL, his third time there this season. Ben Brown hasn’t pitched since June 8 and will be reexamined in October to determine next steps. Hayden Wesneski had an up-and-down season as both a reliever and starter. Luke Little seemed to find a rhythm before his season was derailed by injury as well.

None can be locked into next season’s rotation or counted upon in the bullpen just yet. Javier Assad is a big positive, though, as he seems like a legitimate starter going forward, and Porter Hodge has emerged as a high-leverage reliever who earned manager Craig Counsell’s trust.

The Cubs’ top pitching prospect, Cade Horton, came out of the gates at Double A looking dominant. He needed just four starts before being pushed to Triple A. But five starts in, multiple of which were quite rocky, he hit the shelf with a shoulder issue.

The biggest concern scouts had on Horton was that his velocity was down a few ticks for many of his starts. Some wondered if that was an indication of the oncoming injury. Others questioned whether the jump in velocity in 2023 was just an anomaly.

The Cubs believe that at the end of 2023, Horton was really locked in with his mechanics and at the top of his game. This season he got a little out of whack, falling into some old habits that led to him staying over the rubber a little longer. The Cubs were focusing on him moving down the mound better, leaning into his strong athleticism. It was a very simple fix that he was progressing with before the injury popped up. The belief is velocity won’t be an issue going forward.

Horton was at the Cubs’ Arizona complex rehabbing and will head home where he’ll start his offseason on-ramp. The expectation is that he’ll be ready for spring training and do everything he can to have a healthy and strong 2025.

Here are five other pitching prospects to keep an eye on going forward as the Cubs look to continue a positive trend with the development. All information is gathered from sources around the league.

Brandon Birdsell, RHP

A Texas Tech product the Cubs selected in the fifth round of the 2022 draft, the Cubs have been thrilled with Birdsell’s development, especially this season. He’s a big-bodied righty who throws hard and hammers the strike zone. The question when they drafted him was whether the two-pitch pitcher would have enough weapons to navigate a lineup multiple times.

This season he had two big positive developments. The first was that he ended the year, one in which he threw 135 2/3 innings, with the best velocity of his career, sitting 95-96 mph in his final start. That outing was dominant as he worked seven shutout frames, striking out 10 and walking one.

The second big step was the Triple A staff helping him add a third pitch. Birdsell was given a slider-cutter hybrid offering, a shorter, harder breaking ball compared to his slider. The pitch was immediately effective and really helped him see a jump in strikeouts (his 26.2 percent strikeout rate at Triple A was his highest at any level). His other breaking ball is a 12-6 pitch that’s a cross between a slider and a curveball.

His progression this season puts him on the radar for 2025 as potential rotation depth.

Connor Noland, RHP

Noland performed impressively in his final season at Arkansas, prompting the Cubs to select him in the ninth round of the same draft as Birdsell. Noland isn’t a big swing-and-miss guy, relying on soft contact and missing barrels. The Cubs focused on developing Noland’s secondaries this season and he now has two — a 12-6 curveball which has always been his go-to and a new sweeper. He leans heavily on both and commands them well.

Noland also flashed a changeup that performed better than any pitch in his arsenal, albeit in a small sample. Still, the Cubs were encouraged that he was capable of doing so and were excited about the prospects of the pitch.

His four-seamer has cut action and he has a sinker as well, both of which lead to weak contact. His ability to use his breaking balls in different ways gives a unique look to hitters. While the weak contact has been his main strength, the Cubs were encouraged by his solid 22.8 percent strikeout rate at Triple A. His 5.29 ERA at the level was largely elevated due to an outing during which he went only 2 2/3 innings and gave up nine runs.

Jaxon Wiggins, RHP

Wiggins was taken 68th overall in the 2023 draft with the pick the Cubs received in compensation for Willson Contreras signing with the St. Louis Cardinals. The 6-foot-7, 215-pound Arkansas product is an extremely talented athlete who has an impressive basketball highlight reel available on YouTube.

But it’s his baseball talents that are getting noticed now. Wiggins didn’t pitch in 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. What stands out about him right now is his fastball, a pitch that sits 96-98 mph and can hit triple digits. It has a little arm-side run, but a ton of carry that paired with elite velocity leads to getting over barrels quickly.

The Cubs worked on developing a firm gyro slider and are hoping to help him land it in the zone consistently — a theme with his pitches. The biggest developmental step came with his changeup, which may have been his best swing-and-miss pitch by the end of the season.

The problem is his issues staying in the zone. The Cubs have challenged him to lean into his athleticism and really execute his pitches, hammering the zone. If he can do that, then they believe he can thrive with a “good luck hitting this” mentality.

Along with keeping the right mindset, the Cubs have also worked to make sure Wiggins’ shoulders are square and he’s not arching his back during his delivery, trying to keep things simpler. That, along with just getting reps — he’s still green to pitching — and getting feedback are key to him taking the next steps in his development.

Drew Gray, LHP

This was Gray’s first full pro season after undergoing Tommy John surgery prior to the 2022 campaign. Like the two pitchers sandwiching him on this list, he doesn’t have a lot of experience on the mound. The overall stats this season aren’t impressive, but Gray had a 2.89 ERA in his final eight starts with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate.

Of course, that came with a 14.7 percent walk rate, which was actually six points lower than his season walk rate. Getting in the zone is the key to him finding success. But this season was really about his fastball, a pitch that the Cubs see as plus-plus as it gets tons of whiffs.

By the end of the season, Gray’s fastball was sitting 93 mph, the best of his pro career, but it plays above its velocity because of unique riding action that hitters struggle with. There seemed to be a turning point with Gray’s fastball command when they learned what kind of target he likes best. His fastball plays best up in the zone, but they realized the best sight line for him was trying to go down and to the glove side, forcing good extension.

Gray understands that if he misses up with that pitch, that’s also a good result. The adjustment in sight line isn’t too dissimilar to the one Steele made with his four-seamer that led to his breakout. If they can continue developing the fastball command, the next step is with his secondaries, a curveball, sweeper and changeup that they’re continuing to observe to see which ends up standing out.

Nazier Mulé

Like with Gray, Mulé was a two-way player who only recently committed to pitching and is coming off Tommy John surgery. This season was largely about getting him experience, working into a weekly routine so he could learn how to go about his day, monitoring his workload and giving him new grips and cues as he continues to learn how his body moves.

Mulé has a good fastball with natural cutting action that sits in the mid-90s and quickly dials up if he’s coming in for shorter bursts. He also has a two-plane, low-to-mid-80s slider that took a solid step forward this season. His changeup was arguably the pitch that flashed most impressively when he was in high school and an offering the Cubs see as a potential plus pitch.

As a 19-year-old, Mulé made real strides this season as he learned what it meant to be a professional pitcher and understood more about himself in this role. The Cubs paid little attention to results with him — though they were pleased he could handle 43 1/3 innings at Low A and came away with 3.95 ERA despite rough peripherals — and focused on getting him exposure to pitching as he continued to learn and ask questions.

(Photo of Drew Gray: Michael Clubb / South Bend Tribune / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

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