Four weeks into college football’s regular season, 26 FBS teams remain unbeaten, including 20 from power conferences.
Eleven of the undefeated power-conference teams opened the year among the top 19 in the preseason AP Top 25: Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Miami and Utah. It would surprise no one if all or most of that group qualified for the College Football Playoff.
Perhaps more fascinating are the nine Power 4 teams who began the season unranked and haven’t lost yet. What are their trajectories as conference play picks up? Is the Playoff a possibility or just a September mirage? Let’s dive into those nine programs and examine their CFP potential.
Louisville (3-0, 1-0 ACC)
After crushing Austin Peay and Jacksonville State to start the season, Louisville beat Georgia Tech 31-19 to open its ACC slate last Saturday. The Cardinals are the highest-ranked of the schools on this list, rising to No. 15 in the latest AP poll, but they face the most difficult path to a record that would keep them in CFP contention. This Saturday’s trip to Notre Dame begins a six-week stretch before their next open date, including four road games (capped off by Clemson on Nov. 2) plus a visit from Miami. Louisville ends the season with a tricky back-to-back against Pittsburgh and at rival Kentucky. Complicating matters, head coach Jeff Brohm announced Monday that receiver Jadon Thompson will miss the season with a knee injury and that cornerback Quincy Riley will be a game-time decision against the Irish.
Projection: Louisville seems to have pulled the short straw when it came to ACC scheduling. Based on their opponents, the Cardinals reaching 8-4 would register as an accomplishment.
Iowa State (3-0, 0-0 Big 12)
The No. 18 Cyclones earned their ranking after rallying from a 13-point deficit to win at Iowa on a last-second field goal. Sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht and two NFL-caliber receivers in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel headline a roster that returned 86 percent of its production from 2023. Iowa State has enough firepower to contend in the Big 12 and stick around in the CFP discussion for most of the season.
The schedule is set up to build momentum: The Cyclones travel to Houston, then host Baylor, then travel to West Virginia over their next three games, followed by a possibly stiffer challenge in a visit from currently unbeaten UCF. How Iowa State navigates the final three games — Cincinnati at home, at Utah, Kansas State at home — will determine not only whether the Cyclones are Big 12 contenders but if they have a resume capable of reaching the CFP even with a couple of losses.
Projection: The Cyclones’ most difficult opponents until mid-November have to come to Jack Trice Stadium. The Utah-Kansas State back-to-back to close out the regular season should help set the Big 12’s championship game and CFP contention picture.
Illinois (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten)
Quarterback Luke Altmyer has thrown 10 touchdowns without an interception, and the No. 19 Illini have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. But they have several difficult games ahead, starting this week with a trip to Penn State. The Illini also play Michigan and travel to Oregon in consecutive weeks later in October.
Projection: Illinois’ start cannot be underestimated, but plenty of Big Ten foes are in similar spots. Perhaps the Illini can knock off a big name like Penn State or Michigan, but are they good enough to beat Michigan State, Rutgers and Northwestern over the final three weeks? Closing strong has been a program issue, but Illinois has displayed maturity that indicates this year might be different.
BYU (4-0, 1-0 Big 12)
The Cougars pulled off Week 4’s biggest shocker with a 38-9 beatdown of then No. 13 Kansas State. They sit sixth in the Big 12 in scoring offense (32.8 points per game) and second in scoring defense (12.8). Junior quarterback Jake Retzlaff beat out Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon for the starting job and has put together an efficient four games, with 990 yards, nine touchdowns and a 62.6 completion percentage.
Projection: The Big 12 is up for grabs, and BYU is one of many teams capable of battling for a playoff spot. The Cougars have open dates wrapped around a tricky three-game stretch in October, with home games against Arizona and Oklahoma State before traveling to UCF, and another week off before reigniting the Holy War on Nov. 9 at Utah. Still, BYU is just one win shy of matching its 2023 total, which marks an impressive turnaround. It has come far enough to have hope in the Big 12 race.
Indiana (4-0, 1-0 Big Ten)
Curt Cignetti made waves at his opening news conference with his bravado about how quickly he planned to fix Indiana. Thirteen starters arrived from the transfer portal this offseason, including Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has completed 75.5 percent of his passes for 1,013 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. Four games into the season, the Hoosiers are averaging 50.5 points per game and giving up just 9.3. Granted, they notched school records in points (77) and yards (701) in handing FCS program Western Illinois its 26th consecutive loss. But they also flattened UCLA 42-13 in the Bruins’ Big Ten debut.
Projection: Indiana hosts Maryland this week, then travels to Northwestern before an idle week. They don’t face a ranked opponent until Michigan on Nov. 9 and at Ohio State on Nov. 23. At worst, the Hoosiers are on the same level as Nebraska, Washington and Michigan State, which precede Michigan on the docket. That’s not the schedule of a team that’s going away anytime soon. Indiana would be the story of the season in it brought a 9-0 record into its meeting with Michigan. While it’s too early to project a 3-9 team from 2023 vaulting into the CFP, don’t be shocked if the Hoosiers have at least seven wins before their Michigan-Ohio State two-step. There’s a new vibe in Indiana.
Pittsburgh (4-0, 1-0 ACC)
No undefeated team has more close calls than Pitt. At Cincinnati, the Panthers trailed by 21 with less than a minute remaining in the third quarter. Then they exploded for three touchdowns and kicked the game-winning field goal with 17 seconds left to win 28-27. Against West Virginia, Pitt was down 10 with 4:55 left, then rallied to win 38-34. Freshman quarterback Eli Holstein has earned ACC rookie honors in four straight weeks, with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Every opponent remaining on Pitt’s schedule currently has a winning record, but only two are ranked. The Panthers travel to North Carolina (which lost to James Madison) and host Cal (which lost to previously winless Florida State), then face Syracuse, SMU and Virginia. The Panthers finish with Clemson, at Louisville and at Boston College.
Projection: Pitt’s history suggests they’re capable of putting together a nice run coupled with an inexplicable loss or two. That’s certainly a possible outcome with this slate. But the Panthers have a playmaker in Holstein, who redshirted last year at Alabama before transferring. With Miami off the schedule, anything looks possible for Pittsburgh in the wide-open ACC.
UCF (3-0, 1-0 Big 12)
For most of three quarters at TCU in Week 3, UCF looked like it had no chance of remaining unbeaten. Then the run-heavy Knights started throwing and picked apart the Horned Frogs in a 21-point comeback. UCF leads the nation in rushing yards per game at 375.67 yards per game, nearly 20 yards more than No. 2 Army. That will travel against upcoming opponents, but it’s no guarantee of success. The Knights have a key stretch over the next few weeks, in which they will see high-level talent against Colorado and at Florida, then meet Cincinnati before traveling to Iowa State and hosting BYU. Any of those opponents have the potential to create issues. But its running game also gives UCF the opportunity to control any game.
Projection: UCF is among the country’s most unpredictable teams. Last year it lost its first five Big 12 games but also blew out conference runner-up Oklahoma State 45-3. This season’s schedule is filled with pitfalls, too, so even winning five of its final nine games counts as a rousing success.
Rutgers (3-0, 0-0 Big Ten)
It’s no surprise that Rutgers is unbeaten, which is actually a surprise when you consider the program’s dire position before Greg Schiano returned. Last week, the Scarlet Knights let a 16-point lead slip away but still won at Virginia Tech on a late field goal.
Rutgers avoids Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Michigan and Iowa, but its Big Ten schedule still contains plenty of challenges, starting Friday at home against Washington. The Scarlet Knights then travel to Nebraska and host Wisconsin in consecutive weeks before hosting UCLA and traveling to USC for another Friday game.
Projection: Rutgers has the Big Ten’s top rushing offense and one of the league’s best running backs in Kyle Monangai. That style of football travels well, but it doesn’t make Rutgers unique in the Big Ten, either. While it doesn’t appear the Scarlet Knights will be overwhelmed by any opponent, they probably won’t win all of those 50-50s. But they will be competitive, which is impressive.
Duke (4-0, 0-0)
All of these teams have question marks, but none more than Duke, which has feasted on Elon, Middle Tennessee and UConn in addition to picking up a double-overtime victory at Northwestern. Texas transfer quarterback Maalik Murphy has been a valuable addition, and new head coach Manny Diaz has elevated the defense, which ranks first in the ACC in yards per play.
The schedule toughens up starting this week with rival North Carolina, followed by a trip to Georgia Tech. A four-week stretch with Florida State, SMU, Miami and NC State will determine whether the Blue Devils can win at least eight games for the third consecutive season.
Projection: Duke has handled the coaching change from Mike Elko to Diaz very well, and Murphy has replaced Riley Leonard in fine fashion so far. The next two games will determine whether the Blue Devils are a true ACC contender (and thus a CFP contender) or just a potential bowl team that benefitted from a weak nonconference slate.
(Photo: Matthew Holst / Getty Images)
