It’s only been three weeks, but the NFL is already a chaos factory. Week 3, in particular, was a bloodbath for survivor pools.
Through the pandemonium, however, five teams have emerged unscathed. Two of the unbeaten teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills, aren’t surprising at all. But the other 3-0 squads — the Seattle Seahawks, Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers — well, no one saw that coming.
But how much should we believe in their hot starts? We’re going to use my NFL Projection Model to examine where each team stands in terms of making the playoffs, winning their division and securing their conference’s lone first-round bye. Then, we’ll rank the five teams in order of my confidence they can maintain their playoff-bound trajectory.
So, let’s start with the obvious:
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Odds to make the playoffs: 97%
Odds to win division: 90%
Odds to clinch first-round bye: 41%
A shocking No. 1, right? We won’t spend much time here. They’re back-to-back Super Bowl champs; they’ve gone to six straight AFC Championship games, and they’re led by three-time champion and two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes. The AFC runs through Kansas City — the Chiefs have a 31% chance to win the AFC — until another team proves it can knock them off in January.
That doesn’t mean the Chiefs don’t have flaws. There are certainly times when it looks like they’re not on their A-game. We saw this most of last season and have seen it again this year. Honestly, they are a couple of bad bounces away from being 0-3.
The Chiefs seem content just making the playoffs and then flipping the switch. So, if they drop a game or two or look like they are nowhere near the league’s best, don’t be surprised. But for now, the current Chiefs are the closest thing we’ve seen to the Tom Brady-era Patriots, which means they should never be discounted.
2. Buffalo Bills
Odds to make the playoffs: 91%
Odds to win division: 57%
Odds to clinch first-round bye: 23%
If you told me that by the end of the year the Bills had secured the top seed in the AFC and were the consensus best team in the conference, I wouldn’t be shocked. Josh Allen is the MVP-favorite and for good reason. He’s been the NFL’s best player through the first three weeks, and it hasn’t been close. He’s the only QB I would have in the same conversation as Mahomes. He’s not quite there, but he’s easily the next best thing.
Many saw this season as a rebuilding year for the Bills after they traded Stefon Diggs to Houston, but a 3-0 start has put that talk to bed. The Bills graded out as the third-best team in the AFC per my projections heading into the season, but they’ve already climbed to the second spot, and the gap to the third-place Baltimore Ravens (1-2) is growing. The Bills are currently the second-most likely team to win the Super Bowl. Unfortunately for them, as always, Mahomes and the Chiefs stand in their way.
3. Seattle Seahawks
Odds to make the playoffs: 68%
Odds to win division: 49%
Odds to clinch first-round bye: 12%
OK. This is where the rankings get tough. It’s pretty close between the Seahawks and Vikings for me, and despite the Vikings securing the more impressive wins (beating the San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans) the past two weeks, I’m giving the edge to Seattle.
Coach Mike Macdonald’s first season couldn’t have gotten off to a better start, and his defensive prowess is already evident. The Seahawks defense leads the league in EPA/play and percentage of plays that go for at least 10 yards. Sure, the opposing offenses they’ve faced haven’t been top-notch, but the pure dominance means something. Heading into the season, my model projected them to be around league average, but they’ve already moved up into the top five. Maybe I’m too bullish, but typically, dominating bad teams is indicative of future success.
If the defense can play at a top-10 level, the Seahawks are going to be a threat in the NFC playoffs. QB Geno Smith isn’t going to win an MVP, but he can be more than just efficient throwing to the likes of DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett. My confidence in the Seahawks might be premature, but the numbers are what they are, and the Seahawks are currently my favorite to win the NFC West. Which leads us to …
Betting breakout
The Seahawks have gotten off to a 3-0 start while the rest of the NFC West sits at 1-2. With the Rams’ injury situation a mess, I think there is a good chance the Seahawks are the second-best team in the division. My projections have the Seahawks as closer to a coin flip to win the division, so the Seahawks at +185 is plenty of value.
Our pick: Seahawks to win the NFC West (+185)
4. Minnesota Vikings
Odds to make the playoffs: 77%
Odds to win division: 36%
Odds to clinch first-round bye: 19%
If these rankings were purely résumé-based, the Vikings might be atop of this list. Their wins over the 49ers and Texans were mighty impressive, so please don’t take their fourth-place ranking on this list as disrespect. My model sees the Vikings as a top-10 team. Coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores have been in peak form, and another huge challenge/opportunity awaits each of them this week with a matchup against the Green Bay Packers. The Vikings are currently the slight favorite in the NFC North entering this week, but a road victory would solidify their lead.
How have we gotten here? It’s starts with Sam Darnold, who has been amazing in O’Connell’s offensive system. Darnold is currently 13th in EPA/dropback and 14th in dropback success rate, according to TruMedia. Maybe most impressive is that Darnold ranks fourth in EPA/dropback when not pressured.
But you can’t talk about the Vikings without mentioning the job Flores has done with their defensive unit. The Vikings are fifth in EPA/play and fourth in defensive success rate. Did I mention that they’ve played the 49ers and Texans? If the Vikings can keep Darnold clean and the defense can play anywhere near the current level of success, the Vikings will end up on top of the NFC North.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds to make the playoffs: 80%
Odds to win division: 52%
Odds to clinch first-round bye: 11%
The Steelers are last on this list, but how can you not be impressed by the job this coaching staff has done? The defense is great again, but that wasn’t hard to predict. The offense, though, has been a pleasant surprise, even if the numbers aren’t jumping off the page.
Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has gotten the best out of Justin Fields through three weeks. The most impressive thing about how Fields is playing in this system? He’s cut out the negative plays. Fields ranks 10th among qualified quarterbacks in sacks and interceptions per dropback this season at just 7.7%. That’s the same number as Patrick Mahomes through three weeks. From 2021-2023, Fields ranked dead last (38th) among qualified quarterbacks in the same metric at 13.2%. That improvement alone shows a tremendous amount of growth from Fields as well as superb coaching by the Steelers. Or maybe it’s a Bears issue.
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Despite the improvements by Fields, he still ranks 17th in dropback success rate, which is boosted by a 47% mark against the Chargers. If you get that version of Fields every week, then the Steelers are going to be set. But if that’s the ceiling, and the offense reverts back to efficiency levels of the first two weeks, I’m not sure how far this team can go. Can the Steelers make the playoffs? Absolutely. In fact, I have them as considerable favorites to do so (80%). But in terms of being among the league’s best, I need to see more consistency with the offense before I get there.
(Photos of Kevin O’Connell and Mike Tomlin: Adam Bettcher and Joe Sargent / Getty Images)
