Winnipeg Jets training camp: Projecting Cole Perfetti's production and a focus on special teams

WINNIPEG — Cole Perfetti was swarmed by his teammates, disappearing into a mass of blue and white jerseys at centre ice. There were stick taps, cheers and pats on the back. The 22-year-old forward was finally at Winnipeg Jets training camp after signing a two-year, $3.25 million AAV deal on Monday.

“No one wants to miss time, no one wants to miss camp,” Perfetti said. “From the get-go, I’ve always wanted to be a part of it from Day 1 and obviously that wasn’t the case. I just tried to get it done in a good time and just make sure I’m not missing too much — that was the biggest thing for me. I wanted to be back with the guys. I wanted to be in the room with the group.”

Perhaps just as excited may have been new Jets head coach Scott Arniel, who is eager to see his lineup at full strength.

“We talked about getting some (different) looks when it comes to lines, using some different people,” Arniel said. “Now that he’s here, I get to do that.”

Perfetti is an immediate supplement to a forward lineup that Arniel wants to take beyond last season’s performance. At even strength, systems will be tweaked as opposed to revolutionized. Perfetti will be part of that, playing left wing on one of Winnipeg’s top two lines — a decision Arniel says was made to spare Perfetti some of the heavy, down-low lifting of a centre while putting the puck in his hands more often in transition.

Perfetti is good at both blue lines and more effective on the walls than he gets credit for but his biggest strength is holding onto the puck in traffic before finding the most dangerous seam to teammates in open space. He scored almost at will during one-on-one and two-on-one drills at the end of practice, with one particularly striking backhand deke going bar-down on Eric Comrie.

So what kind of team is Perfetti joining partway through camp?

Winnipeg spent the bulk of Perfetti’s first practice working on special teams and, while he took a third unit backseat to most of the power-play work, Arniel made it clear that there’s a big role available for him this season. The Jets’ biggest changes are going to come on their special teams — and rightfully so, given bottom-third results in both contexts. Winnipeg’s power play has changed and the “bumper” position in the high slot will be filled by multiple players. Nikolaj Ehlers played in that role with Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, Gabriel Vilardi and Josh Morrissey, and Perfetti will get a look there, too.

How exactly is Winnipeg revamping its power play? What kind of role will Perfetti play in that — and what’s a realistic points projection for him in an expanded role this season?

We’ll get into systemic changes, Perfetti projections, the latest round of cuts and insight into Winnipeg’s new-look penalty kill in Tuesday’s training camp observations.

Projecting Perfetti’s stats

If Perfetti scored 38 points in 71 games last season, what should Winnipeg expect now? Prorating his games played total to 82 yields 44 points, but Perfetti is likely to receive a boost in ice time under Arniel — both at five-on-five and on the power play. If he merely maintains last season’s scoring rates of 1.81 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five and 3.88 points per 60 minutes on the power play — and if he gets middle-six ice time — Perfetti is due for a scoring bump.

As one example: Perfetti could finish as low as eighth among Jets forwards in five-on-five minutes and still play an extra 90 seconds per game this season compared to last. If he makes that leap, while taking the spot vacated by Sean Monahan on the power play, there’s a good case for 49 points in total — 32 points at five-on-five and 17 more on the power play. And that’s if Perfetti doesn’t improve at all in his fourth NHL season. A conservative guess should suggest a 50-point-per-82-game floor, with lots of room for improvement based on his own development. It’s normal for 22-year-old players to take bigger steps forward as they adapt to the rigours of the league.

Will Perfetti get that opportunity, though?

Arniel says yes, calling Perfetti a top-six forward and emphasizing his potential to have a bigger impact this season.

“Last year, he put together a real good, solid season and he’s got to back that up again and be consistent and do that on a nightly basis,” Arniel said. “I think he recognizes now how he needs to play. He knows now that he’s facing the other teams’ top defencemen and their top forwards. Whether it’s with the puck or without it, he has to do things in a quick level, at a high level, and he has the hockey smarts to do that. He’s excited about where he’s gonna be.”

It seems to me that we’re heading for an Ehlers, Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov reunion this season at even strength. But what about those power-play minutes?

Davis Payne’s power play

Winnipeg’s power play is going to look different this year. If new power-play coach Davis Payne gets his way, we can all be wary of reports which cast the personnel in a fixed light. Players are going to move this year, changing positions as a power play continues.

It might be that Scheifele takes up his longtime position on the left wing boards for a moment, with Vilardi down low, Ehlers (or Perfetti) in the slot, Connor on the right and Morrissey at the point. Maybe there’s a shot and a puck recovery on the other side of the ice, though. Now you’re just as likely to see Vilardi on the right flank, Scheifele in the middle and Ehlers on the far side. The unit will shift positions depending on circumstances and depending on its attack point. Last year, there were times when you’d see the Jets’ top unit recover a puck and work to get everyone in their original position, with the puck on Scheifele’s stick on the half-wall. This year, you’re going to see the unit adapt to the situation instead, looking to create multiple attacking options no matter where the play begins.

“We’re not reinventing the wheel,” Arniel said. “They’ve played it somewhere, or a look of it. It’s not so much the positioning — whether it’s power play or penalty kill — it’s the stick detail, it’s the attack the net mentality.”

Do you remember the Scheifele to Vilardi to Monahan passing play, ending with Monahan taking a one-timer from the slot? You might see it again, except with Ehlers shooting from the slot — or Scheifele, with the puck first moving from Vilardi on the right to Connor down low. When you have more players than the other team, you need to create more options than they can defend; every little wrinkle can help.

One other change you’re going to see takes place when the Jets are set up on either flank. Let’s say Ehlers is on the left wall and attacking downhill. Instead of two options — shoot or look for Connor backdoor — you’ll see all four of his teammates funnel toward the middle of the ice. In a situation like this, Ehlers can shoot or play it to Connor or to Scheifele for a deflection in the slot or to Vilardi across the ice. Success will be defined by movement off the puck — when a player doesn’t have it, they will be more aggressive funnelling to the middle to present themselves as options — and by each puck carrier’s ability to read the play ahead of them, pick the most dangerous option, and execute their play of choosing.

I spent a bit of time watching New Jersey’s morning skate power play drills. Fully admire the Devils’ consistent movement off the puck: no matter who holds it, everyone else is rotating into a slightly more dangerous spot for them.

— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) November 15, 2023

This is not revolutionary in an NHL sense; it catches the Jets up to best practices. Still, it’s easy to look at last year’s power play — 22nd in the NHL, even with the post-Monahan uptick — and complain about a sense of stagnancy. The Jets look ready to leave that complaint in the past.

“They know when a certain look happens that ‘I need to be here, I need to get to this point, I need to be an outlet in this situation,’” Arniel said.

Winnipeg’s first unit on Thursday consisted of Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers, Vilardi and Morrissey. Ehlers frequently found himself in the high slot and spoke to the challenge of playing a new role.

“You obviously have your set plays and all that but there’s also times where you kind of read off what Scheif does with the puck,” Ehlers said. “What KC’s going to do? Is he going to come down and attack? Is he going to throw it down to Gabe? Then I need to kind of slowly move up to a quiet spot where I can get a shot off if it goes to Gabe and to me. Do you move back door? I’m trying to figure all of that out right now. Like I’ve said, I’ve never played that spot. I’m excited to learn.”

For all of the variety, it does seem as though Scheifele on the left and Ehlers in the middle could be a frequent look. Ehlers talked about studying the games of Brayden Point, Patrice Bergeron, Sam Reinhart and Sebastian Aho to learn from the masters of the high slot position.

“He has quickness to get there. He also has a quick release,” Arniel said of Ehlers. “I want to see what it looks like. He’s going to be in there (Wednesday against Edmonton).”

Arniel shared that Perfetti is a candidate for the same job. Alex Iafallo will also get a look. The Jets are still in their experimentation and evaluation stage of implementing Payne’s power play.

Winnipeg’s second power-play unit on Tuesday consisted of Iafallo, Brad Lambert, Namestnikov, Nino Niederreiter and Neal Pionk.

Dean Chynoweth’s power kill

One immediately obvious wrinkle to the Jets’ penalty kill this year? Scheifele and Connor.

Winnipeg’s star forwards are going to take a penalty-killing role, using their speed to attack pucks early and create pressure situations for opposing power plays. They’re also going to take a bit of the load off Adam Lowry’s duo.

“Last year, (Lowry) had to go out and take almost all the faceoffs, (Monahan) as well, but we didn’t have a right side,” Arniel said. “Scheif is a good faceoff guy. We always found last year that everybody — because the power play gets to choose the side they’re on — they kept going to our right side all the time. This helps.”

Longtime readers of the site will remember Scheifele posting strong penalty-killing results with Blake Wheeler in 2018-19. Lowry still got the bulk of the heavy lifting but Scheifele and Wheeler were able to attack puck carriers early on their entry attempts, generating turnovers and helping to keep the puck out of Winnipeg’s zone. Scheifele’s 45.1 short-handed faceoff win percentage from that season to now is also right in line with Lowry’s 44.8 percent rate. (It’s hard to be above 50 percent when outnumbered unless you’re Patrice Bergeron, who managed to hit 52.9 percent, but that’s a digression.)

Lowry and Mason Appleton will continue to be the Jets’ first-unit PK forwards. They’ll be encouraged to be more aggressive this year than last, although we’ll need to get a longer look to see other changes. For now, it’s clear that Scheifele and Connor will give Winnipeg a new, “power kill” dynamic, in line with Dean Chynoweth’s work in Toronto (ranked sixth in the NHL during Chynoweth’s tenure) and Carolina (ranked first in the NHL during Chynoweth’s tenure). It shouldn’t be a surprise, I suppose: Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Auston Matthews all played a substantial role in Toronto’s penalty kill.

Arniel says the goal is to be more aggressive.

“KC has done it before. Scheif has hockey instincts. He’s done it before. He’s actually looking forward to the responsibility,” Arniel said. “If he comes over the boards first, or the second or third rotation, I just want to give these guys reps and I want them to get chances in the exhibition games and see how they do.”

Latest cuts

A round of #NHLJets cuts:

Chaz Lucius, Henri Nikkanen, and Danny Zhilkin assigned to Manitoba.

Kevin He, Jacob Julien, Markus Loponen, Connor Levis, and Kieron Walton assigned to junior.

Dylan Anhorn, Ashton Sautner, Dawson Barteaux, and Ben King have been released from PTO.

— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) September 24, 2024

The Jets trimmed their roster by 12 players on Tuesday, leaving the following 40 players in camp (plus Ville Heinola, who is expected to start the year on injured reserve).

The players are sorted by jersey number, with the horizontal line denoting Group “B” as per Tuesday’s lines.

(Photo: Darcy Finley / NHLI via Getty Images)