I’ve been fixated on using the transitive property of mathematics or logic to think about how good NFL teams are. An example: Baltimore beat Dallas, Las Vegas beat Baltimore, Carolina beat Las Vegas, so Carolina is better than Dallas and Baltimore? Or, Pittsburgh beat Atlanta, Atlanta beat Philadelphia, and Philadelphia beat New Orleans, so Pittsburgh is better than New Orleans? It’d be funny if I actually had enough time on my hands to justify…
What I really want to dig into today is whether being a good NFL team really matters for fantasy. In my orderly mind, I’d like it to be so, but rarely is it cut and dried. I can create four messy bins: 1.) good team with useful fantasy players, 2.) good team without useful fantasy players, 3.) bad team with useful fantasy players and 4.) bad team without useful fantasy players. For what it’s worth, I’m going mostly by record as to the good and bad. Here’s what I came up with.
1: Buffalo, Minnesota, Kansas City, Houston, Detroit, Seattle
2: Pittsburgh
3: NY Giants, Washington, LA Rams, Indianapolis, Miami, Arizona, LA Chargers, Las Vegas, Cincinnati
4: Carolina, Tennessee, New England, Chicago, Atlanta, Cleveland, Denver, Jacksonville
Note: There are a few teams I’m withholding judgment on (SF, NO, PHI, NYJ, BAL, GB, TB, DAL, etc.).
What is clear immediately is that it’s easier for a bad team to provide good fantasy value than for a good team to not — congrats, Steelers. For the bad teams, it’s mostly been just one player who stands out — Jayden Daniels (WAS), Malik Nabers (NYG), Kyren Williams (LAR), J.K. Dobbins (LAC), Brock Bowers (LV). In contrast, Arizona and Cincinnati have a few good fantasy options each despite their struggles (though there’s still room for improvement based on their ADP). It feels generous to keep Miami in Group 3 because even De’Von Achane is slipping without Tua Tagovailoa at QB.
What is particularly vexing for me is managing players in Group 4. These were teams many of us thought would be better than this when we were drafting. I’m going to take a break from my usual format (Don’t Overthink — Tinker With) to touch on some of the players I’m most concerned about: how did it come to this and where do we go from here?
Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
Drafted as QB13 in fantasy leagues this summer, everyone was excited to see what Williams would do with a completely re-tooled Bears offense. Keenan Allen brought veteran stability, while fellow rookie Rome Odunze was the Bears’ ninth overall pick in the draft. Cole Kmet and DJ Moore were more than capable carryovers, giving the rookie QB plenty of options to work with.
The reality has been very different. Through the first two games, Williams competed a mere 55 percent of his passes with an average of 3.95 yards — not even a good number for a running back, much less a quarterback. Those desperate to make hay for Williams point to a better fantasy performance in Week 3, where Williams attempted a whopping 52 passes, threw for 363 yards and two touchdowns. He also threw two picks and lost the ball on a strip sack late in the game, leading to another loss for Chicago. I understand growing pains, but I don’t want them in my starting lineup. Williams and the Bears will have to show more consistency and fewer mistakes to convince me to start him.
Rome Odunze, WR, CHI
The Bears’ offensive woes obviously carryover to the star rookie receiver, who was the main beneficiary of the Week 3 passing increase. Odunze caught six of 11 targets for 112 yards and a score, basically tripling the output of his previous two games combined. While the chemistry between Odunze and Williams isn’t perfect yet, it’s good enough to trust Odunze against the Rams in Week 4 — so far, they’re giving up the third-most fantasy points to WRs thanks in part to the huge Week 3 Jauan Jennings game.
D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI
Oftentimes, when the passing game needs some ironing out, a team will turn to its running back to build confidence and stabilize drives. Then there’s Chicago. Swift has 10, 14 and 13 carries in the first three games, respectively, and he’s amassed a mere 68 yards on the ground. He’s put up these numbers against middling defenses (in other words, it’s his poor performance that is making the run defenses of his opponents look better than they truly are). While a share of the blame surely rests on Swift’s shoulders, the offensive line hasn’t done him or Williams many favors. Coming into the season ranked as the No. 12 unit, this line has utterly failed to build on last year’s end-of-season success. To make matters worse, both Roschon Johnson (8) and Khalil Herbert (4) cut into Swift’s already meager workload in Week 3. Swift is currently unstartable, regardless of how you allocate the blame for his poor performance.
Drake London, WR, ATL
Through the first three games of the season, London is WR23. As a consensus second-round pick, we were definitely expecting more from him with Kirk Cousins at the helm and Arthur Smith in Pittsburgh. The good news with London is that his numbers are trending up. From three targets and 15 receiving yards in Week 1 to nine targets and 6/67 in Week 3, my confidence is growing alongside London’s stat line . He’s also scored in his past two games. My expectation is that London continues to be a bright spot in the Falcons offense and a mainstay in your fantasy lineup, though he looks doubtful to become a fantasy league winner as some had hoped.
Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
I wish I felt less panic over Robinson. As a first-round pick, I guess it’s lucky that he’s actually healthy and on the field, and he did get his first touchdown in Week 3, but this is not the level of productivity that we signed up for. Tyler Allgeier looms, with a better YPC efficiency and nearly half as many carries as Robinson in Week 3. The biggest difference between the two has been in the passing game, where PPR scoring is saving Robinson’s managers (11/12 catches for 89 receiving yards). Another factor is matchup — Robinson has faced three of the nine best run defenses of 2024, so far, with Pittsburgh (second) and Kansas City (third) being particularly rough. With New Orleans up next, it might not get better for Bijan until Weeks 5-6, when he gets Tampa and Carolina. Of course, with the Falcons putting starting center Drew Dalman on injured reserve and dealing with other OL injuries, the numbers might not improve. Still, you (and I) must continue to start Robinson in all formats and hope for the best.
Will Levis, QB, TEN
Levis and the Titans were a trendy pick in “most improved” discussions this summer and Levis featured heavily in SuperFlex and Best Ball drafts this year. So far, it’s been nothing but disappointment. Levis’ receivers were available at big discounts in fantasy drafts but still haven’t been worth the capital used to secure them. Levis ranks one spot worse than Williams as the QB28 through three games. He trails only Anthony Richardson in interceptions, with five so far. With three additional fumbles, Levis is leading his Titans to the undesired superlative of most turnovers per game (2.7). There’s nothing to be done about your best balls, but Levis can absolutely not be starting in SuperFlex or 2QB leagues. Literally everyone is better than him right now, except maybe whoever starts for his Week 4 opponent, Miami.
Tony Pollard, RB, TEN
Pollard hasn’t been a total disaster, but neither is he winning your matchups. Averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game, Pollard is coming off his worst game of the season vs. Green Bay, which should have been his best matchup so far. When an offense can’t move the ball effectively, or when they are an open book to defenses, fantasy value is going to be hard to find. I’d start Pollard vs. the hapless Dolphins with the hope and expectation that he gets back into the double digits, but he doesn’t look like a dynamic fantasy asset for 2024 zeroRB managers.
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAC
Perhaps the most surprising of the “bad teams,” Jacksonville is 0-3 and has looked mostly awful getting there. Lawrence is QB26, just barely ahead of Williams and Levis. For the amount of money… ok I won’t go there, but yikes! Lawrence is a QB who many were counting on as their QB1. Hopefully you’ve developed a back-up plan, because while Lawrence has at least been consistent, it’s consistently subpar.
There’s plenty of debate on whether the Jaguars’ woes are Lawrence’s fault or not. As with most things, there’s a combination of reasons they’re coming up short. The offensive line is a huge problem that they’ve failed to adequately address over the past three years. He doesn’t appear to be on the same page as his receivers, which has resulted in him having a nine-point deficit between expected completion percentage (61.7) and actual completion percentage (52.8) (per NextGenStats). The receiving corps is always changing. But Gabe Davis (50 percent), Christian Kirk (76) and Brian Thomas Jr. (82) vary in the number of catchable targets they’re seeing from Lawrence, so he’s not blameless. Regardless of the reason, Lawrence presents a fantasy problem. My solution is matchup-based, so I’m considering giving him a shot this weekend vs. Houston. The Texans have given up the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs and allow the 10th-most points per game. It really depends on who your other option is — mine is Derek Carr vs. Atlanta. JAX-HOU carries a slightly higher point total in addition to the fantasy numbers I mentioned, but it’s still a tough call.
Let me know in the comments whose disappointing start to the season is leading to tough Week 4 decisions!
(Top photo of Bijan Robinson: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
