The biggest game of the college football regular season to date, and perhaps the biggest game of the regular season in general, is this week in Georgia at Alabama, but there are a number of big games this weekend. My projection model has predicted point spreads and totals for all four top-25 matchups as well as every FBS vs. FBS Week 5 game.
My model likes Georgia by half a point at Bama so buckle. Among the other notable games, it has Penn State by 22 points against Illinois, Kansas State by five points against Oklahoma State and Notre Dame by four points against Louisville. There are even a pair of games my model has a complete toss-up: Duke vs. North Carolina and Central Michigan vs. San Diego State.
The model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 5 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my Week 5 best bets, which are based on my model’s projections.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 5 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Army |
|
|
47
|
46.5
|
 Temple |
13
|
12.5
|
|
|
 Virginia Tech |
|
|
51.5
|
54.5
|
 Miami |
-14.5
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 Washington |
|
|
46
|
44.5
|
 Rutgers |
2
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 W. Kentucky |
|
|
53.5
|
54.5
|
 Boston Coll. |
-16.5
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 Kentucky |
|
|
50
|
53.5
|
 Ole Miss |
-20
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 Maryland |
|
|
54
|
53.5
|
 Indiana |
-5.5
|
-7
|
|
|
 Minnesota |
|
|
38.5
|
35.5
|
 Michigan |
-10.5
|
-9.5
|
|
|
 Oklahoma St. |
|
|
54.5
|
55.5
|
 Kansas State |
-5
|
-4.5
|
|
|
 BYU |
|
|
48.5
|
45.5
|
 Baylor |
-5.5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Nebraska |
|
|
50
|
46.5
|
 Purdue |
9
|
10
|
|
|
 Buffalo |
|
|
46.5
|
44.5
|
 UConn |
-4
|
-5.5
|
|
|
 No. Illinois |
|
|
48.5
|
46.5
|
 NC State |
-8.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Navy |
|
|
55.5
|
57.5
|
 UAB |
1.5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 South Florida |
|
|
59
|
64.5
|
 Tulane |
-6.5
|
-5.5
|
|
|
 Ball State |
|
|
52
|
56.5
|
 James Madison |
-21.5
|
-21.5
|
|
|
 Texas State |
|
|
55
|
55.5
|
 Sam Houston |
10
|
8.5
|
|
|
 Wisconsin |
|
|
49.5
|
51.5
|
 USC |
-17.5
|
-15.5
|
|
|
 Louisville |
|
|
49
|
45.5
|
 Notre Dame |
-4
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Oklahoma |
|
|
46.5
|
45.5
|
 Auburn |
1
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Arkansas |
|
|
50
|
52.5
|
 Texas A&M |
-6
|
-4
|
|
|
 UMass |
|
|
45.5
|
45.5
|
 Miami (OH) |
-14
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 TCU |
|
|
61
|
59.5
|
 Kansas |
-1
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Louisiana |
|
|
59.5
|
60.5
|
 Wake Forest |
-5
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Colorado |
|
|
60.5
|
63.5
|
 UCF |
-14
|
-14
|
|
|
 Liberty |
|
|
65.5
|
62.5
|
 App. State |
5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 Fresno State |
|
|
51
|
48.5
|
 UNLV |
-3
|
-1.5
|
|
|
 San Diego St. |
|
|
49
|
53.5
|
 Central Mich. |
0
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Georgia So. |
|
|
60.5
|
58.5
|
 Georgia State |
-1
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Western Mich. |
|
|
58
|
54.5
|
 Marshall |
-4
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Akron |
|
|
49.5
|
47
|
 Ohio |
-14
|
-12.5
|
|
|
 Eastern Mich. |
|
|
46.5
|
46.5
|
 Kent State |
11.5
|
14.5
|
|
|
 UNC |
|
|
58.5
|
56
|
 Duke |
0
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 UTSA |
|
|
50.5
|
55.5
|
 East Carolina |
-1.5
|
-4
|
|
|
 Miss. State |
|
|
62.5
|
61.5
|
 Texas |
-33.5
|
-38.5
|
|
|
 Old Dominion |
|
|
51
|
51.5
|
 Bowling Green |
-7.5
|
-9.5
|
|
|
 La. Tech |
|
|
50.5
|
51.5
|
 FIU |
3.5
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Stanford |
|
|
56
|
57.5
|
 Clemson |
-19.5
|
-21.5
|
|
|
 Iowa State |
|
|
45.5
|
43.5
|
 Houston |
11.5
|
14.5
|
|
|
 ULM |
|
|
48.5
|
45.5
|
 Troy |
-5
|
-7
|
|
|
 Charlotte |
|
|
49
|
46.5
|
 Rice |
-7
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Tulsa |
|
|
68.5
|
68.5
|
 North Texas |
-5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Georgia |
|
|
53
|
48.5
|
 Alabama |
0.5
|
1.5
|
|
|
 Ohio State |
|
|
46.5
|
48.5
|
 Michigan St. |
22.5
|
23.5
|
|
|
 Illinois |
|
|
50.5
|
47.5
|
 Penn State |
-22
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 Middle Tenn. |
|
|
60.5
|
61.5
|
 Memphis |
-27
|
-25.5
|
|
|
 S. Alabama |
|
|
66.5
|
65.5
|
 LSU |
-23.5
|
-21.5
|
|
|
 Florida State |
|
|
44
|
48
|
 SMU |
-2.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Cincinnati |
|
|
60.5
|
58.5
|
 Texas Tech |
-6.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 New Mexico |
|
|
54
|
54.5
|
 New Mexico St. |
7.5
|
9.5
|
|
|
 Air Force |
|
|
36.5
|
33.5
|
 Wyoming |
3
|
4
|
|
|
 Wash. State |
|
|
68.5
|
63.5
|
 Boise State |
-3.5
|
-7.5
|
|
|
 Arizona |
|
|
52
|
47.5
|
 Utah |
-9.5
|
-10.5
|
|
|
 Oregon |
|
|
59
|
55
|
 UCLA |
24
|
25.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Dominic Lovett: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
