By most objective measures, last season was a step back for the Toronto Maple Leafs during the regular season. (And the playoffs were, well, a familiar story.)
Toronto dropped from 115 and 111 points the two previous years down to only 102. They also went from 45 and 42 regulation wins all the way down to only 33, which was tied with sad sack Buffalo for 14th.
The biggest reason for that fall was their ballooning goals against, which at 3.18 per game was the highest for the Leafs since back in 2009-10, the bad old days when they were the worst team in the East.
That stat is a tad misleading, given the NHL’s scoring environment has changed over those 15 years. But what’s clear is that, if the Leafs are going to have a better campaign, finishing higher than 21st in the league in pucks going in their net is going to have to be a huge part of that.
That, however, should be doable. And that is probably, from a macro perspective, the biggest reason for optimism this year for the franchise.
Let’s dig in on that a little more and look more granularly on the ways we might expect the Leafs to improve, year over year.
Players in
Forward: Max Pacioretty (PTO), Steven Lorentz (PTO)
Defence: Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jani Hakanpaa
Goal: Anthony Stolarz
Players out
Forward: Tyler Bertuzzi, Noah Gregor
Defence: T.J. Brodie, John Klingberg, Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, Mark Giordano
Goal: Ilya Samsonov, Martin Jones
1. Improved defensive play
There are obviously a lot of different components that go into improving a team’s goals against average. But having the right personnel on the back end is right near the top of that list.
While the Leafs are likely going to run into issues with their newcomers’ contracts on the back end, a trio of Tanev, OEL and (maybe) Hakanpaa replacing the 3,700 minutes that the departed D played (44 minutes per game over a full season) should mean a significant upgrade.
If he’s healthy all year, Tanev could eat nearly half of that total, bringing one of the strongest shutdown games in the league to Toronto’s even strength and penalty killing units. Yes, he’s old, but there were few signs of slowing down during the playoffs this past spring, and even if he only plays 60-odd games, it should make a huge impact on a team desperate for a defensive stalwart.
One of the more under-told stories of last year’s bumpy ride was just how dramatically three of their top defencemen — Brodie, Klingberg and Giordano — fell off, largely due to age-related reasons. That can be a tricky thing to forecast, but there were signs for all three in previous season(s) that their time may have been coming due.
That’s certainly not the case for Tanev or OEL, who had a nice rebound year in Florida a year ago, albeit mostly in a depth role.
At bare minimum, it says here that this team won’t finish in the bottom 10 on the penalty kill again, thanks in large part to GM Brad Treliving’s focus on the back end. And that will prove a key factor in bringing down the GAA.
2. Higher potential in goal
The other big anchor on the Leafs goals against last season came in net.
Toronto had some standout performances at times thrown in from Joseph Woll and Martin Jones, but overall, the results weren’t there. The Leafs finished 2023-24 in 24th in five on five save percentage, 23rd in all situations and 20th in expected goals against.
The biggest issue was Ilya Samsonov, who flamed out to the point he was on waivers in midseason and finished with the fourth worst goals saved above expected among the NHL’s 36 most-played starters.
Playing a black hole in 47 percent of your minutes in the crease is going to be a problem for any team. The Leafs were incredibly fortunate that Woll and Jones didn’t wilt under their workloads, or things could have been even uglier.
When you talk to people around the league, goaltending is the biggest thing outside observers point to as a potential problem area with this team, but it’s also, plausibly, the area they can make the biggest improvement. Woll and Anthony Stolarz are largely untested, yes, but they’ve also put up promising numbers as No. 2s and haven’t really been given the opportunity to shoulder a bigger load.
With a better defensive cast in front of them, it stands to reason they’ll collectively be able to offer better than a struggling Samsonov did last season.
Now, injuries are the huge wild card given what both netminders have been through in their careers, and I’m reluctant to try and predict the almost unpredictable here, but the Leafs didn’t exactly set the bar all that high a year ago in goal.
3. A diversified offensive setup
The Leafs were an offensive powerhouse a year ago, finishing second in the NHL in goals scored in large part facilitated by monster seasons from Auston Matthews and William Nylander. Those two may struggle to hit those same marks individually (69 and 40 goals), but I like the route that new coach Craig Berube is going down the middle, something that should help the Leafs produce in different ways.
Pushing Nylander to centre isn’t so much about John Tavares aging out of the 2C role as it is the fact the Leafs don’t have a strong enough option to drive play (and offence) from the 3C hole unless they do this.
Pontus Holmberg and David Kampf are not it. And Max Domi is a better fit on the wing with one of the stars to play off of, as we saw in stretches alongside Matthews a year ago.
Are the Leafs a bit thinner in terms of punch from the wing without Bertuzzi? Sure, a little. But Matthew Knies has more to give, Max Pacioretty could surprise, and if Nick Robertson sticks around, he’ll offer an even bigger threat in the bottom six.
And they’ll all be helped by the fact that they’re likely going to have a Core Four star as their centre, which just wasn’t the case a lot of last season.
4. A new look from behind the bench
I was a believer in Sheldon Keefe, and thought, in large part, he did a nice job as the Leafs coach, especially in the regular season. But after five years without a postseason breakthrough, it was time for a change, especially given so much of the top of the roster is going to be the same.
When I survey people around the league about how Berube will handle this group, you get a lot of different answers. Some are skeptical it will work. Others believe his hard-nosed, no “country club” style will shake up a group that has come unglued in key moments far too often.
If you’re an optimist, which is the role we’re taking on for this column, at the very least he’ll come to all this with fresh eyes, try some different things (like Nylander at centre on a sheltered scoring line) and push some different buttons.
Berube’s history of coaxing higher quality chances out of his group while having them play a north-south style is also intriguing given the cast here.
This is another tricky one to predict the outcome, but there’s definitely upside, especially if new assistant coach Marc Savard can figure out how to stop the power play from having its annual power outage in April. A new voice in that department is welcome.
5. More depth
When the Leafs got down to the end of training camp a year ago, with six or seven cuts remaining, some of the names remaining were, frankly, not all that impressive.
Dylan Gambrell was there. So, too, was Mikko Kokkonen, and youngster Fraser Minten, who surprisingly made the team in the 3C role.
The decisions feel far harder this time around, especially once Pacioretty signs, Connor Dewar and Hakanpaa get healthy, and if Steven Lorentz lands a contract (which it certainly seems is a possibility given how Berube has been using him as a big, hit-first fourth liner in camp). Just looking at the Leafs salary-cap picture alone — something we can do more in-depth at some point — there’s going to have to be a trade or some tough waiver calls to sort through all of this.
But that’s what you want as a contending team: Some really tough calls down the lineup due to an abundance of NHL-calibre talent. You’d rather lose talent on waivers than not have talent to begin with.
We’ll see how things shake out and if everyone remains healthy through the preseason, but I believe the Leafs are in a better spot in this regard this year, especially with players like Minten and Nikita Grebenkin set to be with the Marlies and available for waiver-free recalls and demotions anytime they like.
(Top photo of Oliver Ekman-Larsson: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
