It took only a week of training camp for Toronto Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube to narrow down just about all of the players competing for jobs into one practise group.
Which gave us a real outline of how Berube’s lineup is shaping up for the start of the regular season.
Forwards
Arguably the most intriguing subplot of camp still revolves around William Nylander’s move to centre. However, that process, if the Leafs are indeed committed to it, will take time to sort out, presumably stretching well into the regular season.
More pressing is the competition for jobs between Max Pacioretty, Nick Robertson, Bobby McMann, Pontus Holmberg, Steven Lorentz and Easton Cowan. (I’m assuming now that Ryan Reaves has his spot secured.)
Though he’s on a PTO, Pacioretty feels like a given to grab one spot. Without explicitly confirming it, Leafs GM Brad Treliving essentially said Pacioretty will get a contract before the start of the season.
Berube likes to work in pairs when it comes to line combinations and while lots can still change, including injuries, he seems intrigued by a potential partnership between Pacioretty and John Tavares. Who rounds out that trio feels like an open question at this point, with McMann likely the favourite.
Robertson might be able to nudge his way in there, but he’s going to need to do a lot with whatever opportunities he gets in the next week of camp – which might include a look on Nylander’s right wing. With Auston Matthews and Calle Järnkrok both sidelined from practice on Wednesday because of injuries, Robertson skated on a unit with Nylander and McMann. In his first preseason game on Tuesday night, he registered two shots in almost 19 minutes.
Unlike McMann, who can play anywhere — even on a fourth line — with his size and speed combo, Robertson needs to play in a top-nine role. Berube will have no interest in sticking him on a fourth line with Reaves and David Kämpf. Which makes Robertson’s bid for a spot that much more challenging. His margin for error is smaller.
A question the Leafs have to be pondering already: What’s the plan for Robertson if he’s not among their top 12 choices at forward? Is there room for him to hang around as an extra forward? If the prospect of waivers enters the equation, a trade involving the 23-year-old becomes almost inevitable.
Holmberg, unexpectedly, feels like he’s in a battle for a spot in Berube’s lineup. Like Robertson, he requires waivers so this has to be a bigger-picture conversation for Leafs management. Namely, are they prepared to lose him (whether through waivers or a trade) if he’s not among Berube’s top 12-13 choices up front? Their answer should be no, given his versatility and upside.
Can he carve out a role for himself in the top nine somehow? He made his desperation clear by fighting Ridly Greig on Tuesday, his first fight of any kind.
Where does Holmberg land when Matthews and Järnkrok are healthy? Berube sure seems to like the prospect of pairing Lorentz with Kämpf and Reaves on his apparent fourth line. Does he prefer Lorentz to Holmberg?
There was a path for Cowan to make the Leafs, but from the looks of it, the 19-year-old isn’t in Berube’s plans. The Leafs coach had Cowan practicing on a line with Logan Shaw and Alex Nylander on Wednesday morning in a group filled with players who aren’t making the NHL squad. Cowan did get a brief look with Tavares in his preseason debut this fall, but reading between the lines, Berube doesn’t seem to think he’s ready for the NHL.
Which seems about right with how things have gone so far: Not bad, certainly, but nowhere near ‘the kid might be ready now!’ conversations. There’s still time for things to change, but a return to junior feels likeliest for Cowan at this point.
Berube did have a 19-year-old Robert Thomas on his roster in St. Louis at one point, so he’s presumably not against the prospect of playing a teenager — but only if that teenager is clearly ready for the NHL.
Defence
Jani Hakanpää still has yet to practice with the Leafs main group, further raising the question of whether he’ll be ready to start the regular season.
He moved around OK skating alongside a futures-laden group on Wednesday afternoon and then sketched out plays on a whiteboard with development coaches for a long stretch afterward. He’s an imposing figure at 6-foot-7, just the type of defender this team and their GM prefer. He did not look like someone who would require a stint on long-term injured reserve, which would necessitate him missing at least 10 games and 24 days.
However, if he’s unable to suit up in the preseason, maybe that’s precisely the route the Leafs decide to take given the severity of his injury, not to mention the other implications for other players on the roster.
Berube already appears settled on his top three pairs if Hakanpää is unavailable:
Rielly – Tanev
Ekman-Larsson – McCabe
Benoit – Liljegren
The Leafs coach hasn’t experimented yet with anything but a No. 2 combo of Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jake McCabe, which is interesting for several reasons:
- It vaults Ekman-Larsson into a top-four role.
- It breaks up what had been the Leafs’ most effective pairing last season.
- It leaves a third pairing of Simon Benoit and Timothy Liljegren.
Most interesting to me is the proposed increase in responsibilities for Ekman-Larsson. He was effectively the Panthers’ No. 5 defenceman last year, mostly playing third-pair minutes with Dmitry Kulikov. The Leafs appear intent on asking him to become their No. 4 this season, which will require him to play more than the 18 minutes and change he averaged last year — and against tougher competition. He figures to have a role on both special teams.
It makes plenty of sense for the Leafs to see if he can do it, and see if he can do it with McCabe, maybe their most reliable defender in the second half of last season. He’s a clear talent upgrade on Benoit in the top four, yet he’s also 33 and coming off a season of lighter duty (though he played big minutes early in the season for Florida).
If the Ekman-Larsson–McCabe combo doesn’t work for whatever reason, there’s an easy pivot: Reconnect McCabe and Benoit, knowing they work well together, and team Liljegren, if Hakanpää still isn’t around, with Ekman-Larsson.
Rielly – Tanev
Benoit – McCabe
Ekman-Larsson – Liljegren
That looks like a more well-rounded group to me.
It’s worth noting that, in a teeny-tiny sample of just 43 minutes, Benoit and Liljegren struggled together — badly: Shot attempts were 73-46 in favour of the opposition, they were outscored 6-2 and expected goals were 32 percent. (When he wasn’t playing with McCabe, Benoit had his most success last season, weirdly, with Conor Timmins.)
Goalies
Not much to report here yet.
The most important question to me here remains health, namely Joseph Woll’s health after an injury-plagued first full season with the Leafs. A healthy camp is a good camp for Woll.
— Stats and research courtesy of Hockey Reference and Natural Stat Trick
(Top photo: Richard A. Whittaker / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
