An already competitive National League wild-card race only became wackier with a pair of postponements between the Mets and Braves in Atlanta this week, forcing the teams to schedule a doubleheader on Monday, the day after the regular season ends for everyone else.
The last time a rescheduled regular-season game after the end of the season was played with postseason implications was 1981, when Kansas City beat Cleveland to determine home-field advantage in the American League playoffs. The last time a rescheduled regular-season game after the end of the season determined playoff qualification was 1973, when the Mets won the first game of a doubleheader with the Cubs to clinch the NL East. (The second game was not played.)
There are more than a thousand permutations for how things can play out for the Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets and Braves over the next several days. Let’s break down what we know about the stakes this weekend.
Where do things stand right now?
If the season were to end today, the Padres would host the Diamondbacks, and the Brewers would host the Mets. The Braves would be eliminated.
The season does not end today, and there are 1,536 different ways things could play out for the five teams mentioned above between now and Monday night. That’s too many to break down right now.
So, we’re going to focus on the 64 different scenarios that can play out with the three most important series this weekend: the Brewers hosting the Mets, the Braves hosting the Royals and the Diamondbacks hosting the Padres.
Who holds the tiebreakers?
The Padres own the tiebreaker over the Braves.
The Mets and Braves both hold tiebreakers over the Diamondbacks.
The Mets own the tiebreaker over the Padres.
The Braves currently hold the tiebreaker over the Mets, but that would change if New York were to sweep Monday’s doubleheader.
In any scenario in which the Diamondbacks and Padres finish tied, Arizona would own the tiebreaker.
What are the magic numbers to clinch?
Padres
• Have clinched a postseason berth
• Have clinched a finish ahead of Atlanta
• Clinch a finish ahead of Arizona with one more win or Arizona loss
• Clinch a finish ahead of New York with a combination of two San Diego wins or New York losses
• Clinch the NL West title ahead of Los Angeles with a combination of seven more San Diego wins or Los Angeles losses
Diamondbacks
• Clinch a finish ahead of Atlanta with a combination of four Arizona wins or Atlanta losses
• Clinch a finish ahead of New York with a combination of five Arizona wins or New York losses
• Clinch a finish ahead of San Diego with a combination of seven Arizona wins or San Diego losses
Mets
• Clinch a finish ahead of Arizona with a combination of four New York wins or Arizona losses
• Clinch a finish ahead of Atlanta with a combination of five New York wins or Atlanta losses
• Clinch a finish ahead of San Diego with a combination of eight New York wins or San Diego losses (This cannot happen before Monday)
Braves
• Clinch a finish ahead of Arizona with a combination of five Atlanta wins or Arizona losses
• Clinch a finish ahead of New York with a combination of seven Atlanta wins or New York losses (This cannot happen before Monday)
One takeaway
• The Mets cannot be eliminated before Monday’s doubleheader
What would render Monday’s doubleheader completely unnecessary?
There are a couple scenarios in which the National League playoff field is set and seeded by Sunday night. This would require:
• A Royals sweep of the Braves
• The Padres to take two of three from the Diamondbacks
• The Mets to win the series over the Brewers
In these cases, the Padres would host the Mets and the Brewers would host the Diamondbacks. The Braves would be eliminated.
What would render Monday’s doubleheader likely unnecessary?
Obviously, the doubleheader would have to be played if playoff qualification is at stake. For the National League playoff field to be set on Sunday night, either Atlanta or Arizona would have to be eliminated.
Atlanta would be eliminated with a combination of four Diamondbacks wins and Braves losses PLUS a combination of five Mets wins and Braves losses. For instance, if Atlanta is swept by the Royals, the Mets win the series in Milwaukee and the Diamondbacks claim one win over the Padres.
Arizona would be eliminated with a combination of four Mets wins and Diamondbacks losses PLUS a combination of five Braves wins and Diamondbacks losses. For example, if Arizona is swept by the Padres, the Braves win the series over Kansas City and the Mets win once in Milwaukee.
If either Atlanta or Arizona is eliminated, it would then be up to the commissioner’s discretion whether the doubleheader would be played to determine seeding. It feels safe to assume the doubleheader would be nixed if it would only decide the fifth and sixth seeds in the National League. (Give any of those teams truth serum, and they’d probably tell you they prefer to be the sixth seed and travel to Milwaukee rather than a likely date with San Diego.)
However, there are scenarios in which the playoff field is set but the fourth seed — and a home Wild Card Series, complete with home gate revenue — is in play. That would require Atlanta to be eliminated and a combination of at least six Mets wins and Padres losses through Sunday.
What would render Monday’s doubleheader partially unnecessary?
There are several scenarios in which the second game of the doubleheader might not need to be played, as was the case for the Mets in 1973. For instance, if the Mets enter the day needing one win and the Braves two and New York wins the opener, the second game would not be necessary. (Major League Baseball has not formally declared that the second game would not be played in such a scenario, but it seems to be another safe assumption.)
Is there a chance of a mutually beneficial split?
Few recent sporting events have been as perversely compelling as the final game of the 2021 NFL regular season. The Chargers and Raiders played each other with a playoff spot on the line: The winner would get in, the loser would be left out. Or, if the two teams tied, both would get in, at the expense of the Steelers. And then the game went deep into overtime, making a tie distinctly possible, until Las Vegas kicked a field goal in the final seconds to knock the Chargers out.
Few historical sporting events have been as perversely boring as West Germany’s 1-0 win over Austria in the 1982 World Cup, when both teams knew such a result would allow both to advance to the knockout stage at the expense of Algeria. The Disgrace of Gijón changed World Cup rules and has its own Wikipedia page.
So, is there a chance the Mets and Braves work something out to ensure both teams advance? There are scenarios where that would be the case, if both teams enter Monday with one fewer win than Arizona. However, given the decades-long rivalry between the two franchises, as evidenced by their inability to work out a better contingency plan for these last two games, it’s hard to imagine either side looking at such an arrangement as mutually beneficial.
What would render Monday’s doubleheader most meaningful?
If the Padres and Diamondbacks both clinch by Sunday night without Atlanta being eliminated, the doubleheader will decide the final berth in the NL postseason.
There are also scenarios in which the Mets could arrive in Atlanta Monday with a chance to go home Tuesday — for Game 1 of a Wild Card Series or the offseason. That would require:
• The Padres to lose out, opening up the opportunity for the fourth seed
• The Mets to win the series in Milwaukee
• The Braves to stay within two games of the Mets
The Mets, in particular, have a long history of qualifying for or missing the postseason by a single game. This finish could end up the wildest of all.
(Top photo of Orlando Arcia and Jose Iglesias: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
