Welcome back for another season of fantasy football speculation, using our patented data-backed, formulaic approach to discover next week’s waiver wire headliners… today. Going position by position, I mine my favorite obscure statistics in regard to volume, depth, and efficiency. Then I mash them all together, hopefully identifying some cheap fantasy gems to grab now before the squares do. Then for all the last-minute managers on-the-go, I’m adding a new section — “Sunday’s Streaming Service” — to help plug 11th-hour holes in leagues with first-come free agency.
Quarterbacks
As I started gathering obscure data, I realized something. The shallow nature of the player pool at the QB position allows me to chart all available free agents rather than isolate certain stats, so please enjoy the visuals courtesy of Trumedia. In searching for a fantasy quarterback of course we need volume but also the willingness to push the ball downfield — so I combined total dropbacks with air yards per target. Once volume and depth’s established, it’s on to charting EPA/Attempt and NextGen stats’ expected completion rate to complete the picture by mixing in good play and efficiency. (images below)
Week 3 brought some major shake-ups at the QB position — namely in Carolina — but it’s no reason to be rash. Before you go digging through the bargain bin, make sure Sam Darnold and Derek Carr are no longer available. That said, my favorite bubble-QB with a chance to finish in among the top seven is still Geno Smith, even if the volume chart insists we take a closer look at Deshaun Watson. That’s why including EPA and accuracy is so important to account for all the inexcusable negatives Watson invites with his poor decision-making. If Geno’s gone, I’m cycling through mobile shot-callers Justin Fields and Daniel Jones.
Running Backs
Since we’re coming to you after the first run of weekly waivers, I won’t repeat the usual suspects — we’re here to get weird. That said, make sure popular adds Bucky Irving, Carson Steele, Braelon Allen and Roschon Johnson have a home before you go deep-league dumpster diving. Last year, I proved success by pivoting away from the lowest hanging fruit in total touches. Instead, I’ll frame utilization a little differently with touch per snap rate, which offers a unique perspective on frequency without volume being necessary. Then I’ll get out the microscope for any widely unrostered ballcarriers showing top-tier efficiency in terms of fantasy points per snap. Helpful hint: if a player shows up on both lists, we probably need to prioritize them as a speculative add.
4 Available RBs w/+44.0% Touch Per Snap Rate (min 10 Touches)
- Tyler Badie, DEN — 73.3% Touch/Snap%
- Trey Benson, ARI — 56.3% Touch/Snap%
- Ray Davis, BUF — 55.0% Touch/Snap%
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 48.1% Touch/Snap%
6 Available RBs w/+0.40 Fantasy Points Per Snap
- Tyler Badie, DEN — 0.65 FPS/Snap
- Ray Davis, BUF — 0.53 FPS/Snap
- Ty Johnson, BUF — 0.51 FPS/Snap
- Khalil Herbert, CHI — 0.50 FPS/Snap
- Alexander Mattison, LV — 0.49 FPS/Snap
- Emanuel Wilson, GB — 0.47 FPS/Snap
At the risk of sounding fraudulent, what’s the point of this exercise if we’re going to ignore it? Tyler Badie is one of only two RBs to pop up on both lists, earning legitimate focus when playing, and then making the most of it. He also has a better chance than Ray Davis of usurping the lion’s share of backfield touches for his team without an injury. Honestly, I’ve been reticent of attaching myself to the Broncos’ backfield situation. Despite being terribly unproductive thus far on the ground at 2.1 yards/carry (-2.1 over expected), Javonte Williams seemingly maintains a death grip on most passing/third downs for Denver due to his pass-blocking abilities — and then we have to deal with Jaleel McLaughlin lurking. Maybe it’s time to rethink that premise for a chance at base work and TD equity on a potentially ascendant offense. And that’s if Sean Payton figured something out with rookie Bo Nix. That said, I know a lot was in garbage time, but Denver’s in search of an answer, and if we see a repeat in terms of utilization, except this time Badie gets a goal-to-go carry, he’s a strong candidate to headline next week’s mainstream columns.
Wide Receivers
Like RBs, just make sure this week’s universal adds Jauan Jennings, Rome Odunze, Xavier Legette, and Darnell Mooney belong to a squad already. With that out of the way, every sharp fantasy manager knows targets are earned — it’s precisely why talent level matters so much at the position. Earning targets is the carrying tool for WR speculation — the opportunities will come. And while playing time is nice, it’s not enough. Snap counts are a decent measure for wideout usage, but routes run test better. Do we really care if our guy is out there blocking downfield? I don’t. So let’s see who has both run routes and earned an above average amount of looks while doing it.
6 Available WRs w/ +15 Routes Run Per Game, +16% Targets Per Route and +0.20 Fantasy Points Per Route
- Alec Pierce, IND — 24.7 Rte/Gm, 16.2% TPRR, 0.59 FPS/Rte
- Allen Lazard, NYJ — 30.0 Rte/Gm, 17.8% TPRR, 0.49 FPS/Rte
- Noah Brown, WAS — 15.0 Rte/Gm, 20.0% TPRR, 0.48 FPS/Rte
- Calvin Austin III, PIT — 16.3 Rte/Gm, 18.4% TPRR, 0.47 FPS/Rte
- Devaughn Vele, DEN — 29.0 Rte/Gm, 27.6% TPRR, 0.41 FPS/Rte
- Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG — 29.3 Rte/Gm, 27.3% TPRR, 0.39 FPS/Rte
The free agent cupboard emptied in a hurry as the NFL dead-ball era started mass panic buying for pass-catchers. Without an obvious target, give me the best of a bad situation — the Commanders’ Noah Brown. Since returning Week 2, Brown is either tied or leads all Washington wideouts not named Terry McLaurin in targets, catches, yards, yards/route, 1st Down/reception, explosive catch rate and air yards per target. I’m not certain how many WRs rookie Jayden Daniels can support, but I love the target types. Brown’s ability to challenge the middle of the field with high-value crossing routes (below) should give him the best combination of available ceiling and floor.
Tight Ends
Remember to make sure this week’s top adds Cole Kmet, Colby Parkinson and Tyler Conklin aren’t floating around first. It was a rough start for the game’s most sluggish position, but I refuse to capitulate to the TE agnosticism. This may very well wind up as an exercise in futility, but there’s no retreat and no surrender in these fantasy streets. I’ve since incorporated high-value red zone targets to complete the trifecta, but for now only three tight ends check all three boxes.
3 TEs w/+10% Team Target Share, +6.0 Air Yards Per Target, and +0.33 Red Zone Target/Game
- Mike Gesicki, CIN — 17.8% Team Tgt, 7.6 AY/Tar, 0.7 RZ Tar/Gm
- Brenton Strange, JAX — 12.2% Team Tgt, 11.0 AY/Tar, 0.7 RZ Tar/Gm
- Hayden Hurst, LAC — 11.1% Team Tgt, 6.6 AY/Tar, 0.3 RZ Tar/Gm
Top Stashes
- QB — Michael Penix, ATL
- RB — Kimani Vidal, LAC
- WR — Malachi Corley, NYJ
Week 4 Sunday Streaming Service (>35% Rostered per Yahoo!)
- QB — Andy Dalton, CAR vs. CIN
- RB — Khalil Herbert, CHI vs LAR
- RB — Tyler Badie, DEN at NYJ
- WR — Xavier Legette, CAR vs. CIN
- WR — Greg Dortch, ARI vs. WAS
- TE — Brenton Strange, JAX @ HOU
- K — Matt Prater, ARI vs. DET
- DST — Raiders vs CLE
Thanks so much for reading — the comments, feedback and overall response to the article have bordered on overwhelming. Please feel free to let my bosses know how I’m doing below with any comments or questions. Make sure to follow me on X @JohnLaghezza for a link to my brand new best-selling Substack page for custom projections plus all the fantasy, betting, and DFS data you can stomach.
(Top photo of Tyler Badie: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn)
