Why are Newcastle not seeing the best of Alexander Isak so far this season?

There are two very different versions of Alexander Isak.

Off the field, those inside Newcastle United describe the Sweden striker as being a laid-back individual, someone who rarely shows emotion and is seldom expressive.

But, on the pitch, in a competitive environment, few are as demonstrative as Isak. If he has missed a clear goalscoring chance, he screams in anger — and, if one of his team-mates fails to pass when he is in a prime position, he does not attempt to hide his frustrations.

Fabian Schar was the latest player to exercise Isak — who, on his 25th birthday, slapped the turf in anger after the Switzerland international shot into the side-netting, rather than square for the striker to tap in against Fulham (shown below) — but the centre-back is far from the only team-mate to provoke such a reaction this season.

Newcastle’s attacking performances have not matched their points haul. Isak’s dissatisfaction is a byproduct of that; often he has been peripheral, isolated and starved of service.

Against Fulham, he had just 25 touches, only three in the opposition box, and two shots, both blocked.

For a centre-forward who scored 21 league goals in just 27 starts across 2023-24, had a full summer to rest and then an encouraging pre-season, it was anticipated Isak would start the campaign in rapid and prolific fashion.

Instead, he has only a solitary strike so far this season, two behind Harvey Barnes, who is Newcastle’s leading scorer.

Admittedly, five games and 406 minutes represent a small sample size, yet across every key metric — goals per 90, minutes per goal, non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90, shots and shots on target — Isak’s numbers are down, relative to his entire Newcastle league career (shown below).

But it is not just that Isak’s volume of shots (2.8 to 2.4) and efforts on target (1.3 to 0.4) per 90 have decreased, the quality of opportunities he is being afforded has also diminished. Using stats from fbref.com, Isak’s npxG per shot — which measures the likelihood of an effort being scored — is 0.14 per 90 this season, down from 0.18 across his Newcastle career.

That may seem like a small shift downwards, but it is significant when it comes to Isak actually being able to score from those chances. In three out of five games, his individual npxG has been 0.09 or lower.

So why are Newcastle struggling to present Isak with both the volume and quality of opportunities he has previously enjoyed?

Their unconvincing displays and inability to forge a clear identity have certainly not helped. Isak’s woes are a symptom of the wider ills afflicting Eddie Howe’s side.

According to fbref.com, per 90 minutes, this season Isak is having fewer touches (26.9 to 30.7), fewer touches in the attacking third (15.8 to 17.5) and, critically, fewer touches in the penalty area (4.9 to 5.6) than he has averaged throughout his time at Newcastle. In four out of five games, Isak had had five or fewer touches in the box, with Bournemouth (11) the exception.

Isak is also receiving fewer passes (17.1 to 21.9) and fewer progressive passes (5.6 to 5.9), which move at least 10 yards towards the opposition goal or into the penalty area.

It must be noted those figures are partly depressed by Newcastle playing 68 minutes against Southampton with 10 men and Isak being withdrawn at half-time at Wolverhampton Wanderers due to injury.

But, given Newcastle as a team have, per 90 minutes, completed the seventh-fewest passes (433), enjoyed the joint-third-fewest touches in the opposition box (18.8) and managed the sixth-fewest shot-creating actions (20.8) — defined by fbref.com as being the offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, take-ons and drawing fouls — clearly there are issues in the build-up phases.

“He’s not as involved as we want him to be,” Howe said of Isak following the Fulham defeat. “He’s not having the impact we want him to have and that he’s capable of.”

Discounting Southampton, the pass networks for each of Newcastle’s Premier League outings are enlightening.

Although central strikers naturally tend to have lower contributions relative to players in other positions, Isak and his team-mates have not established many notable in-game connections yet.

A minimum of five passes between players is required for a line to be shown and, aside from against Bournemouth, when Isak connected with Jacob Murphy and Bruno Guimaraes, he has not produced a passing network with more than one pass line.

Against Tottenham Hotspur, when Newcastle had only 34 per cent possession, Isak, despite scoring, did not exchange five or more passes with any team-mate. However, as the pass network shows, only three of Newcastle’s players registered pass lines between themselves, highlighting the team’s struggles to string passing moves together.

During his 45 minutes against Wolves, Isak did interchange well with Anthony Gordon, with their pass-link value deemed to be of a good quality, too, but he did not regularly exchange passes with any other team-mates.

At Fulham, it was Guimaraes who managed to find Isak most frequently.

Alongside faltering build-up play, team-mates’ decision-making has contributed to Isak appearing so peripheral. For the most part, he is still making good runs and timing them well, but his team-mates are opting for alternative passes.

Below, against Spurs, Gordon has cut inside from the left and Isak is sprinting to get in behind the high line.

Yet Gordon chooses to spread play to the overlapping Barnes. Barnes is in space, so it is not a bad decision necessarily, but Isak holds out his arms in exasperation at not being played in for a one-on-one.

Even for Isak’s goal, Joelinton chooses to feed Murphy in behind Spurs’ defence, rather than send the striker through.

Murphy is the clearer and easier pass, and Isak continues his path to then finish into an empty net, but initially the striker is frustrated he does not receive a through ball.

While centre-forwards expect to make runs and only to receive passes from a portion of them, this problem has felt especially acute at Newcastle this season.

During the second half at Molineux, when Gordon shifted to centre-forward, he too found it a thankless task. Gordon managed just one shot, which was blocked, and only 13 touches, just two in the area.

Late on, despite having the Wolves half to sprint into (as shown below), Gordon is overlooked by Murphy, who instead plays a more difficult, if accurate, lofted ball out to Barnes. Eventually, Sandro Tonali has a shot blocked but Gordon is denied a one-on-one.

Although Isak has been working with fewer and lower-quality chances, he has, at times, also lacked his usual lethal composure in front of goal. The ratio of shots he has managed to get on target is down at 18.2 per cent, from 46.2 per cent throughout his Newcastle career.

Whether a lack of competition — caused by Callum Wilson being sidelined until the October international break, and the time it is taking summer signing William Osula to acclimatise — has affected Isak is unclear. But Isak and Wilson were at their potent best in 2022-23, when both knew they had to perform to retain their place.

This season, Isak has been uncharacteristically tentative when one-versus-one. He is renowned for taking shots early but he has been taking additional touches.

Against Bournemouth, Isak controls Emil Krafth’s long ball on his chest and advances towards the area.

Although his touch takes him wide, Isak still waits until he is midway inside the box before shooting, and Neto is able to save.

Against Spurs, this was even more evident. Tino Livramento spots Isak’s perfectly timed run and plays the striker in behind.

Despite picking the ball up midway inside the Spurs half, Isak keeps dribbling until he is in the box. This allows Radu Dragusin time to recover and, although the Spurs defender catches Isak and a penalty could have been awarded, the striker could have shot sooner.

As the wide angle shows, Isak could also have squared to an unmarked Barnes, representing poor decision-making on his own part.

Such clear-cut opportunities have been rare, however.

Instead, Isak is often coming deep, looking for the ball, and finding himself as part of the build-up, rather than the player being played through.

At Wolves, Isak drops deep and receives possession from Guimaraes, before playing Murphy through to shoot.

As the Fulham pass network shows, Gordon’s average position was actually higher than Isak’s, showing he regularly came short to get involved.

For Barnes’ goal, Isak plays a one-two with Murphy, creating the space for the winger to advance into, but also pulling himself away from dangerous areas.

Even so, according to fbref.com, per 90 minutes, Isak is attempting fewer dribbles (2.4 to 3.4), making fewer progressive carries (2.0 to 2.5) — taking the ball at least 10 yards towards the opposition’s goal or into their area — fewer carries into the final third (1.6 to 2) and marginally fewer carries into the box (1.3 to 1.4).

Generally, Isak has been less prominent in a Newcastle attacking system that is lacking cohesion and incisiveness.

The season is young and the sample size small, but, among the wider performance-related issues Howe must address, finding a way to release Isak into more dangerous positions more frequently is undoubtedly a priority.

(Top photo: Gareth Copley/Getty Images)