The Buffalo Sabres have just about $7 million in salary-cap space but aren’t in a rush to spend it. That’s caused some frustration among a fan base that has watched the Sabres miss the playoffs for the last 13 seasons while ranking among the bottom five in player salary spending in each of the four years before this one.
“There’s been zero pushback from ownership about what we can spend or can’t spend,” Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams said at the beginning of training camp. “We will spend the money we think we need to spend to win.”
The Sabres did spend some money this summer. They brought in a new fourth line by trading for Beck Malenstyn and signing him to a contract extension and then signing Sam Lafferty and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. Those three cost a total of $4.85 million this season. They then brought in center Ryan McLeod ($2.1 million cap hit) via trade, signed Jason Zucker for $5 million and extended goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen on a contract that will pay him $4.75 million per season for the next five seasons. Add in another million for free-agent goalie James Reimer and raises for Peyton Krebs and Henri Jokiharju, and Buffalo’s offseason spending was around $19 million. However, they also bought out Jeff Skinner, which saved roughly $7.5 million in cap space.
Should the Sabres have spent more? You could make that case considering every playoff team in the NHL last season spent within $2 million of the salary cap. But the Sabres are still leaning heavily on entry-level contracts with Jack Quinn, JJ Peterka and Zach Benson all playing in their top six. Adams is in his fifth season as general manager and hasn’t made the playoffs. Knowing the expectations, he feels he’s spent enough to build a playoff-contending roster. He might be right. With rebound seasons from some of Buffalo’s top scorers, better play from the bottom six and a new coach in Lindy Ruff, Adams might have done enough.
The other point Adams made before the season is one he’s made before about the need to balance future spending.
“As you put your roster together, you can’t just look at it as today,” Adams said. “You’re predicting what future contracts look like. So this past summer, you’re looking at certain situations whether it’s trades or potential UFAs, it really wasn’t dollars, because we could have spent more dollars. It was term and what does that do to the next three or four guys that we need to sign next summer?”
There weren’t a ton of one-year deals available in free agency. And Adams is intent on making sure he can spend what is necessary to retain the talent the Sabres have drafted and developed. So what is the Sabres’ future salary-cap outlook?
Right now, the Sabres have $60.9 million in cap commitments next season with 12 players under contract. If we assume a $4 million salary cap increase, that would mean a $92 million cap ceiling and just over $31.1 million in cap space next season for Buffalo. That accounts for Jordan Greenway, Aube-Kubel, Zucker, Jokiharju, Jacob Bryson and Reimer all coming off the books. But the biggest factor is that Peterka, Quinn, McLeod, defenseman Bowen Byram and goalie Devon Levi will all be restricted free agents. How much will that cost the Sabres?
Let’s use AFP Analytics’ July 1 extension projections as a benchmark to gauge what the Sabres could be dealing with their five big-name restricted free agents. We are using AFP’s projections assuming a $92 million cap baking in the $4 million increase that’s expected.
UFAs: Jordan Greenway, Jason Zucker, Henri Jokiharju, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Jacob Bryson, Dennis Gilbert, James Reimer
RFAs: JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn, Bowen Byram, Ryan McLeod, Devon Levi
Cap space: Roughly $31 million
Roster spots filled: 12/23
JJ Peterka, LW
Age: 22
2023-24 stats: 82 games played, 28 goals, 22 assists, 50 points
AFP Long-term projection: 6 years, $7,629,705 cap hit
AFP Short-term projection: 2 years, $5,116,800 cap hit
This is the big contract the Sabres need to prepare for. Peterka is fresh off a 28-goal season and is now set up to have a full season playing top-line minutes with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. We’ve seen what the offensive ceiling looks like for Thompson and Tuch in 2022-23. Dom Luszczyszyn projects Peterka for 30 goals and 33 assists in that role. With that type of season and an increase in the salary cap, Peterka’s next cap hit will be north of $7 million. We’ve already seen Dylan Guenther sign for $7.1 million per year in Utah with one 35-point season to his name. And Red Wings winger Lucas Raymond just signed for $8 million per year after a 31-goal, 72-point season. Peterka could easily come in between those two players and end up as Buffalo’s highest paid forward.
Jack Quinn, RW
Age: 23
2023-24 stats: 27 games played, 9 goals, 10 assists, 29 points
AFP Long-term projection: 6 years, $7,139,200 per year
AFP Short-term projection: 2 years, $4,186,000 per year
Quinn must have been smiling when he saw the Guenther contract. Injuries derailed Quinn’s 2023-24 season, but he’s already shown enough goal-scoring potential to make you wonder if he could score 30 goals. He had 14 as a rookie in 2022-23 and will now get a chance to play on Buffalo’s first power-play unit. If he stays healthy, he could have the type of season that warrants a big-money extension. Otherwise, the Sabres could give him a bridge contract. But even then, he won’t come cheap.
Bowen Byram, D
Age: 23
2023-24 stats: 73 games played, 11 goals, 18 assists, 29 points
AFP Long-term projection: 5 years, $6,443,066 per year
AFP Short-term projection: 2 years, $4,756,4000 per year
This will be an interesting contract for the Sabres. Adams traded Casey Mittelstadt to get Byram, the top-four defenseman he coveted. But Buffalo already has more than $19 million in cap hits tied up in Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power. They also take up major roles on the blue line, preventing Byram from getting the top power-play opportunities. The Sabres can’t extend everyone long-term, so Byram could be a candidate for a bridge contract. He’s already making $3.85 million per year, so another bump closer to $5 million would be reasonable with a strong season.
Ryan McLeod, C
Age: 25
2023-24 stats: 81 games played, 12 goals, 18 assists, 30 points
AFP Projection: 3 years, $2,982,525 per year
McLeod is currently locked in as Buffalo’s third-line center. He’s expected to get time on the penalty kill and be the reliable defensive center he was in Edmonton. While there could be room for more offensive growth in McLeod’s game, his role won’t necessarily provide the opportunity to dramatically increase his point production. Getting him locked in at a contract at or near AFP’s projection would be a solid deal for Buffalo and would continue to buy time for their prospects to develop.
Devon Levi, G
Age: 22
2023-24 stats: 23 games played, 3.10 goals-against average, .899 save percentage
AFP Projection: 2 years, $1,455,440 per year
Like Byram, this contract feels like a bit of a wild card for the Sabres. So much depends on how much Levi plays this season and how well he performs when he’s in net. Having already signed Luukkonen to a five-year extension, it wouldn’t make sense for the Sabres or Levi to rush into a long-term deal. He’s not eligible to become an unrestricted free agent until 2029. Signing a two-year contract would give Levi time to establish himself as an NHL starter and increase the value of his next contract. Jeremy Swayman got a $3.45 million value in arbitration last summer after starting 39 and 33 games in the two seasons prior with save percentages of .914 and .920 along with seven combined shutouts. He also had goals-against averages of 2.41 and 2.27. Levi probably won’t be able to approach a similar number, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he can make a case for more than $1.455 million with a big year.
Do the Sabres have enough for all of these contracts?
The short answer is yes. If they signed Peterka and Quinn long term, signed Byram short term and got McLeod and Levi signed for the term and cap hit AFP projects, that would be roughly $23.9 million in salary cap space. You could shave $3 million off that by doing a shorter-term deal for Quinn. And performance could obviously cause these numbers to shift. Agents and players know the salary cap is increasing, so these players would need a strong offer to consider signing before putting up another season of production.
Using that $23.9 million estimate, the Sabres would still have just over $7 million in cap space to add to the roster with six roster spots to fill. Going shorter term on Quinn would leave $10 million for those six spots. Trading Connor Clifton would open up $3.33 million in cap space but also create another hole at right defense. The big spot to fill would be Jokiharju’s, but other than that the Sabres would need to replace Greenway and Zucker on the third line and Aube-Kubel on the fourth line. Jiří Kulich will fill a spot on an entry-level contract. Konsta Helenius and Isak Rosen could be ready, too. The Sabres still wouldn’t be in salary-cap trouble, but they would be forced to spend closer to the cap to fill the remaining holes on the roster.
Should they really lock up a core that hasn’t won?
That’s the question Adams has to figure out. It might be why the team is waiting to sign some of these players. It’s also why a bridge deal for Byram and possibly for Quinn could make sense. While not every contract the Sabres have signed has aged perfectly, I’m not sure any of them are a problem at this point. They could trade any of the players they have extended to long-term contracts without issue. What I tried to outline here is the scenario Adams has said he’s preparing for. It would be a good problem for the Sabres to have if all of these players perform well enough to warrant contract extensions. It would also give the Sabres little choice but to spend closer to the cap ceiling. This also shows the importance of Buffalo’s prospect pool. They will need entry-level contracts to fill key spots in the lineup as soon as next season.
What about this year?
None of this changes the fact that the Sabres could have spent more this summer, but it does illustrate why multiyear deals in free agency didn’t make a ton of sense for Buffalo. They also could have waited another season before buying out Jeff Skinner, but it’s become clear that the move was about changing how the team plays more than it was about shedding cap space. Adams still has as much flexibility as any general manager in the NHL to buy a rental via trade this season to help the roster. He has draft picks, prospects and the cap space to fit just about any player who could become available.
“If we think there’s a deal out there that’ll help us get better, we’re going to attack it,” Adams said. “There’s never been any issue from (Sabres owner) Terry (Pegula) on that.”
The next 12 months will give Adams a chance to put action behind those words.
(Photo: Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)
