MINNEAPOLIS — There’s no one reason a team comes crashing down. It took ineptitude across the organization for the Twins to fall from having a 92.4 percent chance of making the playoffs on Aug. 17 to being eliminated Friday with a 7-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field.
Baltimore starting pitcher Cade Povich, who was drafted by the Twins and acquired in a trade for Jorge López in August 2022, shut down his former team long enough to send them to their 25th loss in 37 games.
Had the Twins won, they would have remained in contention for a playoff spot after Atlanta topped Kansas City 3-0. Instead, the Twins will finish the season with two meaningless games. Here are five reasons the Twins will sit at home this October while Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit all earned postseason berths.
Flawed starting pitching plan
As if replacing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda’s 288 1/3 innings (in 2023) to free agency wasn’t daunting enough, it seemed even riskier that two of the team’s potential replacements were pitchers who’d recently dealt with injuries, Anthony DeSclafani and Chris Paddack. Paddack was coming off his second Tommy John surgery and injuries had limited DeSclafani to 118 2/3 innings the previous two seasons. DeSclafani would never throw a pitch for the Twins, while Paddack lasted 88 1/3 innings before a second trip to the injured list ended his season. Another starter, Louie Varland, struggled and was removed from the rotation in late April. A lack of reliable options left the Twins dependent upon rookies Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. A third rookie, Zebby Matthews, joined the rotation after Joe Ryan suffered a season-ending injury.
Injuries to key players
Every team deals with injuries. The Twins’ issues happened to involve their best players. Royce Lewis missed 70 games with a right quad strain suffered on Opening Day before hitting the injured list again in July with a right adductor strain, which cost him an additional 16 games. Despite missing 14 games with knee inflammation in May and 28 games with hip inflammation in August and September, Byron Buxton appeared in 100 contests for only the second time in his career. The ripple effects from Ryan’s exit from an Aug. 7 start in Chicago with a Grade 2 teres major strain were felt the rest of the season as the Twins were forced to rely on three rookie starting pitchers, all of whom hit their career-high innings totals in September and struggled to pitch deep into games. A lack of innings from the rotation led to the bullpen working harder to cover more innings. But the biggest injury was the loss of All-Star Carlos Correa, who returned in mid-September after sitting out 53 games with right plantar fasciitis. The absence of Correa’s clutch bat, steady defense and leadership can’t be overlooked. Injuries to Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff also cost the Twins’ key lefty bats.
Offense dies a slow death
At one point in the middle of the season, the Twins ranked fifth in the majors in runs scored. Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Jose Miranda, Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee were all out of their minds at the plate. But that offense vanished when the Twins needed it most. The front office’s plan counted upon the Twins outslugging their opponents, something the group proved capable of most of the summer. But around the same time as Ryan’s injury, the offense went silent. Even after the returns of Correa and Buxton, the Twins continued to struggle, producing 3.7 runs per game during a critical 37-game stretch.
Bullpen failures
Touted as a potential top-two bullpen in the American League, the Twins headed into Friday ranked 18th among 30 teams in MLB in Win Probability Added with 1.82. Cleveland led the majors at 15.32. Injuries limited Brock Stewart and Justin Topa, whom the Twins thought would be key contributors, to being active for 37 games total. Jhoan Duran missed the first month of the season with an oblique injury and never truly looked right. Working with reduced velocity, Duran suffered massive regression, struggling in non-save situations. Left-hander Caleb Thielbar also fell off. Jorge Alcala fell apart in the second half. Meanwhile, none of the Twins’ offseason additions — a group that included Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont and Steven Okert — meaningfully contributed to the team. To make matters worse, the team’s only trade deadline acquisition, Trevor Richards, walked 11 and threw seven wild pitches in 13 innings before getting designated for assignment.
Cleveland’s dominance
A team can only be punched in the gut so many times before hitting the mat and being unable to get back up. Cleveland repeatedly wailed on the Twins, dominating the season series 10-3. Three of the Guardians’ 10 victories came via walk-offs. Five of them were one-run wins and three were games decided by two runs. Essentially, Cleveland put the Twins through the wringer all season long.
(Top photo of Rocco Baldelli removing Trevor Richards from a game: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)
