Vikings-Packers preview: What does Aaron Jones have in store in Lambeau return?

Does it get much better than this? Here we have two bitter rivals, two elite coaching staffs and two hopeful fanbases facing off on a beautiful September weekend at Lambeau Field.

The Vikings have turned what many thought would be a transitional year into a string of dominance. They’ve blown the doors off of Super Bowl contenders two weeks in a row.

What’s in store this weekend between Minnesota and Green Bay? As always, The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: Justin Jefferson. He has not played at Lambeau Field since 2022. He caught one pass for 15 yards that night. It was an odd evening. The field looked almost like a slab of ice with Vikings players slipping all over the place. Angst flared up a bit, too, when Jefferson once returned to Minnesota’s sideline, ripped off his helmet and almost slammed it to the ground. He is not one for bold statements. He does not make waves in the media. But there has been a different intensity about him this entire year, from the time that he arrived in Eagan after signing his massive contract. Part of me wonders if this Vikings’ torrid start, slashing through opponents, emanates in some ways from his personality and drive. Who knows what’s in store from the Packers’ defensive standpoint? Maybe they travel Jaire Alexander with Jefferson, maybe not. Regardless, I have my eyes on a superstar who might just be a little extra juiced to stick it to the rival.

Krawczynski: Aaron Jones’ return to Lambeau. The Vikings certainly had high hopes for Jones when they signed him, but he has exceeded expectations early on. The difference between Jones getting the rock and Alexander Mattison has been stark. If they needed any lessons in how important it is to have a back who can make things happen, they learned it last season. Jones not only has been a great fit from a performance aspect but a cultural aspect as well. He has quickly put the green and gold behind him and embraced the purple, which makes his first game in Green Bay even more interesting. There will no doubt be some bittersweet moments for him, but it feels like Jones has moved on quickly and, like Brett Favre before him, would love to stick it to his former team.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: The interior of the Vikings’ offensive line. If you are reading this, you have watched Kenny Clark wreck shop more times than I have. He is a force inside, but the entire Packers front possesses some havoc-wreaking potential. Devonte Wyatt, whom Green Bay drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft, leads the Packers in pressures. Karl Brooks, Kingsley Enagbare and Lukas Van Ness are frisky as pass rushers. On third downs, new Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is not afraid to mimic Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores and utilize four edge rushers at once. Center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Ed Ingram have allowed a combined 20 pressures in three games. Green Bay always tests them, and I wonder what that might mean for Sam Darnold in obvious passing situations.

Krawczynski: Can Sam Darnold continue his precise play? Darnold has been terrific through the first three weeks. In many ways, it’s not all that surprising. Few have ever doubted his physical tools. He was picked third overall for a reason. The belief was that the Vikings offered a place that was better suited to maximize those tools than the Jets or Panthers, where Darnold floundered to begin his career. The one thing that has been surprising is how well he is taking care of the ball. He has thrown eight touchdowns and only two interceptions so far. But last week against the Texans, there were a couple of balls that could have been turnovers were it not for a bounce here or a tip there. No quarterback is perfect, but it felt like he got away with a couple of them. He has to walk the line between careful and aggressive against the Packers, who lead the league in interceptions, so the Vikings offense continues to put its defense in positive situations. If Darnold does not regress in that area, the Vikings will be in great shape.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: The Vikings’ corners vs. the Packers’ receiving corps. Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks are all capable and different. Doubs runs fluid routes. Watson can take the top off of a defense. Reed is shifty. Wicks can separate. It’s not as if the Vikings have not faced an impressive receiving corps; it’s possible the Texans, last weekend, were even more menacing. The Vikings’ defense is also essentially designed to prevent cornerbacks from having to cover and hold ground all across the field. Minnesota has run man coverage on 14.1 percent of snaps, which is 29th in the NFL. Can Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin and Byron Murphy Jr. continue to shrink the swaths of grass in coverage? Packers head coach and play caller Matt LaFleur will make sure.

Krawczynski: Jaire Alexander vs. Justin Jefferson. I hate to be too obvious, but c’mon. These two love to go at each other, and Alexander has never been shy about talking his talk as they’re doing it. There is a lot of pride and a lot of bravado in both, which adds up to a potentially explosive matchup every time the two of them are head to head.

Justin Jefferson, on the Jaire Alexander matchup: pic.twitter.com/Gz2uFSG1xU

— Alec Lewis (@alec_lewis) September 26, 2024

Most interesting overall storyline

Lewis: There is a chance that the Vikings emerge from Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season with a two-game advantage in the NFC North. They’d have to win Sunday, and the Lions would have to lose Monday night to the Seahawks. But what a world that would be. Oddsmakers projected the Vikings’ win total around 6 1/2. They were far and away the least likely team to win the division. Separating from the pack in the division does not matter much this early, but it would be the reality of it that would be so interesting. Head coach Kevin O’Connell and Flores have both received warranted praise, but if Minnesota moves to 4-0? Look out.

Krawczynski: The Vikings aren’t scared of Lambeau Field. They’re 4-4-1 in Green Bay over their last nine games including last season’s win that also brought Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury. They know the place and don’t get caught up in the mystique. It helps that this game is being played in late September and not late December, so the weather won’t be a factor to help the Packers. If they do win on Sunday, they would have an above .500 record over the last 10 years. That’s a pretty strong sample size.

How do these teams match up from a data standpoint?

Here is where each team ranks in the following categories, using explosive play rate for explosiveness and success rate for efficiency:

	Vikings	Packers
Offensive explosiveness	5th	1st
Defensive explosiveness	14th	24th
Offensive efficiency	12th	26th
Defensive efficiency	4th	22nd
Turnover Margin	6th	1st

Predictions

Lewis: Vikings 31, Packers 27. These are two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, so I expect points. Xavier McKinney’s stellar start on the Packers’ backend worries me a bit against Darnold, but in the end, I think Jones’ ability — paired with the Vikings’ passing attack — is going to be too much for Hafley’s defense to bottle up.

Krawczynski: Vikings 27, Packers 21. The Vikings have made Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud look ordinary in the last two weeks. I think it is reasonable to believe they can do the same to Jordan Love in his first game back from his knee injury. If Love does not play and Malik Willis does, even better for Minnesota.

2024 Vikings week-by-week predictions