From Vikings’ shocking start to Chiefs’ WR setback, assessing 4-0 teams: Sando’s Pick Six

Leading the Green Bay Packers by four touchdowns at Lambeau Field must have felt like a dream for Minnesota Vikings fans Sunday, even if their team had to hold on for a 31-29 victory.

Losing receiver Rashee Rice to what is feared to be a season-ending knee injury felt like a significant setback, if not a full-on nightmare, for Kansas City fans already worried about the Chiefs’ offense. Was it?

Both teams emerged from Week 4 with 4-0 records, best in the league pending 3-0 Seattle’s visit to Detroit on Monday night.

The Pick Six column starts at the top this week. The Vikings have basically hijacked this space in recent weeks. I’ve reached deep into the archives to contextualize one of the most shocking 4-0 starts in memory. Are these the storybook 1999 St. Louis Rams or the long-forgotten 2002 San Diego Chargers? What about the Randall Cunningham-led 1998 Vikings, who finished 15-1 and then, well, you know what happened from there.

As for the Chiefs, we’ll assess what Rice’s injury means — and does not mean — in Kansas City’s quest to win a third successive Lombardi Trophy.

• What matters for 4-0 Vikings, Chiefs
• NFC East goes through Washington?
• Derrick Henry’s emphatic start
• Is Aaron Rodgers too good for Jets?
• Malik Nabers: How much is too much?
• Two-minute drill: Seahawks’ question

1. The Vikings and Chiefs are chasing history in their own ways as the only 4-0 teams through Sunday.

• Vikings: Pro Football Reference has preseason Vegas win totals since 1989, so that is where we start our weekly Vikings coronation. This Minnesota team is one of 47 since 1989 to start 4-0 with a cumulative point differential of at least 50.

Nearly 40 percent of these teams (18 of 47) reached the Super Bowl, as the table below spells out. Eight won it all.

Of these 47 teams, only those 1999 “Greatest Show on Turf” Rams entered the season with a lower Vegas win total (5.5) than the 6.5 for Minnesota this season. That Rams team, with Mike Martz calling the offense and Kurt Warner taking over for the injured Trent Green at quarterback, were the most dominant of the 47 through four games, producing a plus-95 point differential. The 2009 Denver Broncos (6.5 Vegas total) were the only other team on the list with a preseason win total as low as Minnesota’s was entering this season. They finished 8-8 with Kyle Orton behind center.

Here’s a comp Vikings fans will appreciate more than any including Orton: Minnesota’s 1998 team started 4-0 with a four-game point differential of plus-57, same as the current team. That Vikings team carried an 8.5-win Vegas total into the season. Cunningham had come out of retirement a year earlier and was 35 years old. He came off the bench to replace an injured Brad Johnson in Week 2 and stayed in the lineup.

While Vikings fans remain free to dream, a more realistic outlook takes shape when we eliminate from our comparisons the 4-0 teams carrying the highest preseason Vegas win totals into their hot-starting seasons.

The sortable table below compares the 2024 Vikings to the 16 other teams since 1989 that started 4-0 with point differentials of at least 50 after having preseason Vegas win totals between 5.5 and 8.5.

From this more modest group, the 1999 Rams won the Super Bowl, and the 2019 49ers got there. These teams averaged 11.4 victories per season. They finished between 8-8 (2009 Broncos with Orton, 2002 Chargers with Drew Brees) and the previously referenced 15-1 purple standard.

Rougher days surely lie ahead for this Vikings team.

Quarterback Sam Darnold has attempted two passes this season while trailing. Two! That is 1.9 percent of his 106 attempts on the season. The Chargers’ Justin Herbert is next-lowest at 14.3 percent. Of the other 30 qualifying quarterbacks this season, no one is lower than 27 percent. The lowest full-season rate since 2000 was 16 percent for Donovan McNabb during the Philadelphia Eagles’ 2004 Super Bowl season. There is zero chance Darnold will skate through this season without having to throw when defenses know he has to throw. Much will change then.

“Great job by them getting Sam Darnold ready to play,” an opposing coach said. “They are playing from leads, which plays to their style because the defense puts a lot of pressure on you. If you are down against them in the fourth quarter, it is hard because they have so many varieties of blitzes and scheme.”

• Chiefs: The Chiefs do not appear in the tables above because their 20-point differential ranks fourth-worst among the 100 teams to start 4-0 since 1989. Only the 1991 Bears (14), 1993 Eagles (17) and 1999 Patriots (19) had lower scoring differentials from that group.

None of that matters, of course, for while the Vikings remain enigmatic, the Patrick Mahomes-era Chiefs have shown they can win Super Bowls, plural, whether or not they are functioning at peak output in various phases of the game. They rank ninth in offensive EPA per play, fourth in success rate and 11th in explosive pass rate this season. They ranked 11th, 14th and 21st in those respective categories last season, winning it all on the strength of their defense and Mahomes’ ability to close out games.

The plan this season called for rookie first-round pick Xavier Worthy and free-agent addition Marquise “Hollywood” Brown to join the emerging Rice in massively upgrading the receiver position. Had all gone well, these investments would have rivaled Kansas City’s past overhauls targeting the offensive line and the defense.

But a dislocated sternoclavicular joint could sideline Brown into the playoffs or beyond. Rice, the Chiefs’ leader this season in targets (29), receptions (24), receiving yards (288) and catches gaining more than 15 yards (six), is now out as well. Tight end Travis Kelce came to life with seven receptions for 89 yards in the Chiefs’ 17-10 victory over the Chargers in Los Angeles, but his ability to serve as a volume receiver on a weekly basis could be waning as he turns 35 next week.

How worrying is the situation? Not very, according to rival coaches.

“I don’t think it’s a big deal,” one said. “What was Mahomes’ average air yards when targeting him?”

It was 5.2 air yards per pass attempt for Rice, the second-lowest average in the league among 43 wide receivers with at least 15 receptions this season, and 4.3 air yards per reception, which ranks 41st.

“It’s a bunch of short passes and Mahomes running around with a really good scramble drill,” another coach said. “But when was the last time they were truly explosive? When Kadarius Toney lines up offsides? They have a great red zone package, trick plays, everything else.”

The Chiefs led the league in explosive pass rate as recently as 2022. They rank 18th since then. Worthy’s 54-yard touchdown grab Sunday showed why Kansas City drafted him. It was the longest pass by air yards (54) for Kansas City since a Damon Huard-to-Dwayne Bowe connection traveled 58 yards past the line of scrimmage in 2007.

.@XavierWorthy runs straight… INTO THE END ZONE 🤯 pic.twitter.com/NSEc6iT0WO

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) September 29, 2024

The Chiefs acquired a wide receiver before the trade deadline in each of the past two seasons (Toney in 2022, Mecole Hardman in 2023), and there’s time to consider making a move if Kansas City does miss Rice. Another injury to one of Mahomes’ pass catchers could increase the urgency.

“They will incorporate the tight ends and go back to what they were doing last year,” the first coach said. “I don’t think it’s going to impact their trajectory much. They were going to have a natural regression this year, in my opinion, based on how many games they have played in recent years, but they are 4-0, so obviously they are in good shape.”

2. Let’s count the ways Jayden Daniels is transforming the Washington Commanders and the NFC East race.

The Commanders moved atop the NFC East at 3-1 with a 42-14 domination at Arizona. Their Daniels-quarterbacked offense is setting the bar higher than anyone could have realistically expected. As in, prime Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers high.

Washington has scored on 68 percent of its drives, the highest rate through four games for any team since at least 2000, per TruMedia. You might recognize the teams right behind the Commanders on that list. Not even Brady’s 2007 New England Patriots scored this frequently to start their historic unbeaten regular season.

The Commanders’ offense has produced at least 8.0 EPA in each game this season. Washington played 387 regular-season games from 2000 to 2023 without hitting that mark in more than two successive games within a season.

The four-game streak is the second-longest in the league since 2000 for any team with a rookie starting quarterback. Russell Wilson’s 2012 Seattle Seahawks strung together five such games. Washington can tie that record at home against Cleveland in Week 5.

The table above lays out the longest such streaks with rookie quarterbacks since 2000. Almost all of the other streaks unfolded later in the season, after quarterbacks had some experience.

Before the season, five NFL execs combined to predict Washington would finish 14th in the NFC this season. One of the execs had the Commanders finishing sixth and winning the NFC East. Why?

“I put them as high upside for a few reasons,” the exec said Sunday night. “One, I was down on the Giants. Two, I was down on Dallas. Three, I was a toss-up on Philly. Four, we are talking about the Heisman winner coming in and possibly being electric, paired with the offensive coordinator (Kliff Kingsbury) who is more prepared than anyone in the league, right now, to handle that player. It’s a perfect marriage.”

One of the execs ranking Washington lower heading into the season called the NFC East a “crapshoot” now. He gave Washington the edge, followed by Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants. He noted that Daniels is a “difference maker” who is hard to defend, and said Dan Quinn, the new coach, is instilling belief in Washington. But he also cautioned that it remains early, and Daniels still must prove he can hold up physically after sometimes taking big hits in college.

Daniels is completing 82 percent of his passes, best in league history through four games among players with at least 75 attempts, per Fox. Brady was at 79.2 percent in 2007. Daniels has completed 71 percent (20 of 28) of passes traveling at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. That leads the league comfortably this season (Brock Purdy is second at 66 percent).

What happens when defenses get a better read on the Commanders’ tendencies?

“The great teams have a next pitch,” the exec said. “It will be interesting to see what it looks like as it goes.”

The schedule could help even out things. Washington faces Cleveland, Baltimore, Chicago and Pittsburgh over the next six weeks. Those teams are collectively allowing 18.5 points per game to opposing offenses.

The Commanders won’t face the Eagles or Cowboys, who are both 2-2, until Week 11, with four of their final seven games against those two opponents.

3. Derrick Henry isn’t the only veteran running back shining for his new team. Here we check in on the top six.

See if you can spot a trend in Henry’s yards from scrimmage this season:

• Week 1: 46
• Week 2: 96
• Week 3: 151
• Week 4: 199

Henry’s 87-yard touchdown run on the Baltimore Ravens’ first play from scrimmage Sunday night helped power a 35-10 victory over the previously 3-0 Buffalo Bills. The Cincinnati Bengals and Washington are in his path next.

DERRICK HENRY TO THE HOUSE!!!!!!!!!!

Tune in on NBC! pic.twitter.com/rRDLQvKh8P

— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 30, 2024

Henry’s 199-yard rushing night against the Bills left him second to the New Orleans Saints’ Alvin Kamara in yards from scrimmage per game for running backs this season.

It’s been a very good month for Henry and some other high-profile backs who changed teams in the offseason. The table below stacks the six most successful veteran running backs on new teams, ranked by yards per game from scrimmage.

In Henry’s case, we see he ranks second in scrimmage yards per game. His new team, Baltimore, ranks first in scrimmage yards per game from running backs, while his former team, Tennessee, ranks 22nd.

Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs rank high among their peers. While their new teams rank among the top 10 teams in scrimmage yards per game at the position, their former teams rank 31st (Giants) and 32nd (Raiders), respectively.

At the other extreme, D’Andre Swift ranks 30th among running backs in scrimmage yards per game. His current team, Chicago, ranks 29th, while his former team, Philadelphia, ranks ninth. But with Swift amassing 165 yards from scrimmage against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, the third-highest total for his career, his outlook has brightened some.

4. Are the Jets heading down the same road the Packers took late in Mike McCarthy’s tenure?

Facing third-and-10 with 1:53 remaining in a game his Jets trailed 10-9, 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers fired a back-shoulder throw up the left sideline toward Xavier Gipson, a 23-year-old who entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent. Gipson kept running up the sideline. Rodgers’ pass sailed behind Gipson, falling incomplete out of bounds.

This play in a critical moment recalled the disconnect between Rodgers and some of his much younger, much less experienced teammates toward the end of the quarterback’s run in Green Bay. As a former Rodgers-era Green Bay coach would later say, “Aaron was so good at the line of scrimmage, he wanted to be in that mode all the time, but it can stress the other 10 guys, especially if you have a young team.”

A similar conflict flashed after the Jets lost Sunday. Coach Robert Saleh — citing 13 penalties for 90 yards, including five false starts — suggested the Jets might not be ready to handle Rodgers’ various cadences. Rodgers pushed back, suggesting his cadence has been a weapon, not a problem, for the Jets before Sunday.

Robert Saleh talks about the cadence on offense and how that has been a problem in regards to penalties for the Jets pre-snap pic.twitter.com/WQJCLHGi3Z

— Jets Videos (@snyjets) September 29, 2024

Aaron Rodgers seems to get annoyed when asked about Robert Saleh’s comments about dialing back the cadence on offense. “That’s one way to do it. The other way is to hold them accountable.” 😳#Jets pic.twitter.com/PUbM2WvCsK

— Optimistic Jets (@OptimisticJets) September 29, 2024

The Jets have a mix of young and old on offense. Their starters Sunday: Rodgers (40), tackle Tyron Smith (33), tight end Tyler Conklin (29), receiver Allen Lazard (28), guard John Simpson (27), guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (25), tight end Jeremy Ruckert (24), receiver Garrett Wilson (24), center Joe Tippmann (23), running back Breece Hall (23) and tackle Olu Fashanu (21).

None other than Lazard has played much with Rodgers, and it sometimes shows.

The Rodgers-era Packers seemed to find the right balance under Matt LaFleur. Do the Jets have the time, and the coaching, to do the same? Their offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, was with Rodgers and LaFleur from 2019 to 2021. The Jets’ offense flopped in its 10-9 defeat Sunday despite Rodgers delivering an array of impressive passes.

told ya!#DENvsNYJ on CBS & @paramountplus https://t.co/YUrMvkOybJ pic.twitter.com/NkyUsr9Sch

— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 29, 2024

The Jets’ offensive EPA for this game (minus-18.8) was the seventh-worst for any team with Rodgers in the lineup, ranking 243rd out of 249, counting Rodgers’ Green Bay years. That was a huge swing from the Jets’ performance in their 24-3 victory over New England last week.

“The Jets at home blow out a rival who is not very good, and then they have 10 days to get ready for their next opponent, and they look like that?” a veteran coach said.

The chart below is an updated version of one published last week. It shows the Jets’ offense perking up with Rodgers initially, then falling back Sunday.

5. How much is too much for New York Giants rookie phenom Malik Nabers?

The Giants have taken their excitement for rookie first-round draft choice Nabers to extraordinary lengths.

Before the season, the team secured permission from Ray Flaherty’s descendants to unretire the Hall of Famer’s No. 1 jersey so that Nabers could wear it.

Since the season started, the Giants have targeted Nabers 52 times through four games, tied for the most targets in a player’s first four games since 2000, per TruMedia.

How much is too much? The question came to mind before Nabers suffered a concussion on his 15th and final target against Dallas on Thursday night. Nabers was taking hard hits, including one to his legs that appeared especially awkward but did not injure him.

An NFL coach who studied all 52 targets noted a pattern: Nabers fights for extra inches when going to the ground might be wiser for his long-term health. I counted 14 plays where Nabers took a violent hit (four plays), invited additional punishment by fighting for extra yards (six plays) or did both (four additional plays).

“It’s not like Daniel Jones is pinpoint accurate,” an executive from another team said, “so (Nabers) is going to take some shots anyway.”

Nabers’ ability to pivot away from defenders sometimes leads him toward trouble, as the case was on one play against Washington, where five defenders took shots at him after he spun inside. Nabers also sometimes stiff-arms opponents at the boundary. These can all be great qualities when a player picks his spots.

The Giants have targeted Nabers 18, 12 and 15 times over the three most recent games. With that volume, Nabers joined former Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. as the only NFL rookies since 2000 to command at least 12 targets in three consecutive games (Beckham had a four-game streak of 12-plus targets to end his rookie season).

If the Giants are going to target Nabers at this rate, the rookie might need to be more selective in how frequently he invites contact.

“Young receivers have to learn how to play the position, which includes when to go for yardage and when to get down to live another day,” the coach said. “When you see him running free through the (Washington) secondary and cutting back, and it’s a play where a linebacker pursues from the stack and just drills him, he learns that by hard knocks.”

6. Two-minute drill: What the Seahawks need to capitalize on Geno Smith’s red-hot indoor production

Geno Smith, making his third Seattle-era start at Detroit on Monday night, completed 55 of 71 passes for 648 yards with four touchdowns and zero turnovers in the previous two visits there, both victories. It’s part of a larger trend for Smith, whose production indoors has far outpaced his production outdoors, even though all the indoor games were on the road.

Seattle’s record was only 6-4 in those red-hot Smith indoor games, thanks to poor play from the Seahawks’ defense, which cost the team 6.1 EPA per game across those 10 starts, as the table above shows.

The Seahawks’ defense under first-year coach Mike Macdonald will be the most interesting variable Monday night.

Seattle will be without its top four pass rushers: Byron Murphy II, Uchenna Nwosu, Leonard Williams and Boye Mafe. That sounds dire, and it could be, but Nwosu has not played yet this season. Seattle held Miami to 3.7 yards per play and one third-down conversion last week with Murphy (11 snaps) and Williams (five) leaving the game early.

If the Seahawks’ defense fares well against the Lions under these injury circumstances, we’ll have emphatic confirmation that Macdonald’s coaching is making a big difference.

Seattle’s defense has dominated in two of three games against weak offenses (Denver, Miami without Tua Tagovailoa) while producing at an average statistical level against New England. That is better than the Seahawks’ defense fared against its three worst offensive opponents last season (excluding Carolina, which played Andy Dalton instead of Bryce Young at quarterback in Week 2 last season).

The 2023 Seahawks dominated against the Giants in Week 3 and had a rough game against Pittsburgh in Week 17. That defense was average statistically against Cleveland in Week 8.

• The Jaguars, 24-20 losers at Houston in Week 4, are 0-4 one month after team owner Shad Khan declared the 2024 team the best in franchise history.

“Make no mistake, this is the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever,” the owner said. “Best players, best coaches. But most importantly, let’s prove it by winning now.”

Jacksonville’s minus-49 point differential is the Jaguars’ third-worst through four games in the 30-year history of the franchise. Only the 2013 (minus-98) and 2014 (minus-94) teams had worse point differentials at this point in a season.

Coach Doug Pederson seemed to point to player execution as a primary culprit Sunday when asked whether he might take over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Press Taylor.

“For what?” Pederson responded. “I thought he called a great game. As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays. It’s a two-way street, so you guys can sit here and point the finger all you want, and it’s fine. Point it right at me. I can take it, OK? I can take it. So, whatever you want to ask me, say, whatever, write, go ahead.”

• Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson’s latest injury shows little has changed from his rookie season. Richardson can make spectacular throws. He’s dangerous as a runner. He lacks the consistent accuracy to sustain drives. And he hasn’t learned how to protect himself when running.

Can the Colts win consistently with Richardson running enough to be effective, but not so much to invite injury so frequently? Not yet.

• Tampa Bay’s 33-16 victory over Philadelphia left the Buccaneers atop the NFC South with a 3-1 record. They swept the Eagles in all three phases, producing positive EPA on offense (+12.3), defense (+4.0) and special teams (+0.7). Tampa Bay’s four-game EPA totals are positive in all three phases, joining the 2007 Buccaneers, who finished 9-8, as the only Tampa Bay teams since 2000 to do that through four games.

• The Bears beating the Los Angeles Rams 24-18 with Caleb Williams attempting only 23 passes and the ground game producing 131 yards is a formula that could work for Chicago against Carolina and Jacksonville over the next two weeks. The Bears then get their bye in Week 7, followed by what figures to be a much-hyped matchup against Daniels and the Commanders at Washington.

• Jim Harbaugh’s game management in the Chargers’ 17-10 defeat to Kansas City was notable.

Harbaugh called timeout instead of challenging whether his offense had gained a first down on a third-and-5 pass to Joshua Palmer with the score 10-10 early in the fourth quarter. Officials ruled Palmer down at the Kansas City 3-yard-line, a yard short of the first down. Replays made it seem as though Palmer had rolled past the first-down marker without being touched, but the situation was tricky for Harbaugh because replays were not conclusive.

The Chiefs then stopped the Chargers on the ensuing fourth-and-1 from the 3, perhaps the game’s pivotal play.

This was the 13th time since 2000 that a team faced fourth-and-1 from the opponent’s 5-yard-line or closer with the score tied in the first half of a fourth quarter, per TruMedia.

The seven teams attempting field goals made all seven kicks and won four times.

The six teams going for it went 4-0 when the fourth-down tries succeeded, and 0-2 when they did not. That 0-2 figure included the Chargers.

• Teams muffed four punts resulting in turnovers Sunday. I found only one other week since 2000 (Week 3 of 2010) in which teams suffered more turnovers on muffed return attempts. There were other weeks with five turnovers during returns.

• Matt LaFleur and the Packers’ staff earned credit for going 2-0 when backup quarterback Malik Willis was in the lineup. Willis deserves credit as well.

“It actually started in Tennessee and has continued in Green Bay, but Malik Willis has improved his game so much in the last year, year-and-a-half,” an exec said. “Willis has played pretty good. He played good in preseason. I see why they traded for him. He made throws, made plays with his legs.”

• The Panthers lost 34-24 in quarterback Andy Dalton’s return to Cincinnati, but it wasn’t because of their offense. Dalton made his third start for Carolina since the start of last season. Those three starts have produced three of Carolina’s top four offensive games over that span.

(Photo of Patrick Mahomes: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)