12 teams, 12 champions: History shows us your team’s path to winning the World Series

If you think baseball’s regular season can be unpredictable — what with one team rebounding from a 106-loss season to make the playoffs and another reaching October even though we’re still pretty sure it was mathematically eliminated in August — you’re going to love baseball’s postseason.

The expanded playoffs have unsurprisingly increased the twists and turns each October. A pair of wild-card teams met for the World Series last season. The No. 6 seed in the National League has won the last two pennants. (Congrats to the Mets!) No NL team with a bye has won a Division Series yet.

And that uncertainty should be amplified even more this year, where for the first time since 2014 no team reached the 100-win threshold. The Dodgers finished with the best record in baseball but don’t really have a starting rotation. The top-seeded Yankees are rebuilding their bullpen on the fly. Anything can happen.

To show that, we looked through history for teams that entered the postseason with similar statistics to this year’s 12 playoff entrants. We’ve looked at every World Series winner since divisions were instituted in 1969 and gauged how well they did compared to the league average that season in runs scored, runs allowed, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, ERA, strikeout rate and walk rate. We also looked at their record in the month of September, to see whether momentum can play a role.

There’s a historical comp for all 12 playoff teams — a team that looked like it did at the start of October and ended the month holding the World Series trophy. Because the biggest surprise would be the lack of one.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Historical Comp: 1993 Toronto Blue Jays

You can start with the firepower in the order. In John Olerud, Paul Molitor and Roberto Alomar, Toronto had the first-, second- and third-place finishers in the American League batting race, not to mention another Hall of Famer in Rickey Henderson. The Dodgers might best that trio, with Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman — all MVP winners.

That excellent offense made up for an average pitching staff for the Jays. Los Angeles will need to follow a similar blueprint, and it’s helped by hitting more home runs than Toronto did that season.

Philadelphia Phillies

Historical comp: 1999 New York Yankees

The thing about the Phillies is that they do pretty much everything well. They’re at least four percent better than the league average in every statistical category we looked at. That’s really similar to the Yankees’ third championship team in a four year span. Like the ’99 Yankees, the Phillies have grown accustomed to deep October runs, though they haven’t yet finished off the month the way the Yankees already had in the late ’90s.

Of the Yankees’ four titles in five years, the ’99 team made it look the easiest in October, dropping just one of 12 games en route to the World Series.

Milwaukee Brewers

Historical comp: 1996 New York Yankees

Milwaukee is another balanced team that leans a bit more on run prevention than run scoring. The ’96 Yankees resemble these Brewers while being a little bit worse at everything: They won one fewer game, homered a little less often compared to the league average and walked a few more hitters.

For both these Brewers and those Yankees, the rotation was headed by a young ace (Freddy Peralta and Andy Pettitte), and the bullpen was a particular strength — although Milwaukee doesn’t quite have a multi-inning Mariano Rivera as a set-up man like New York did.

San Diego Padres

Historical comp: 2019 Washington Nationals

Few teams in the sample are as evenly rounded as the Padres. Like the Phillies, they have no real weakness: They were at least four percent better than the league in every statistical category. But they also lack an obvious strength: They’re no more than seven percent better than the league in any of the statistical categories. They are a team that is good but not great at everything.

The 2019 Nats, who also entered the postseason as the fourth seed in the National League, looked awfully similar. Washington had a stronger offense than San Diego while the Padres’ pitching peripherals are better. Both teams turned it around after sluggish starts: The Nationals famously came back from a 19-31 record to win their first-ever World Series. The Padres didn’t get over .500 for good until late July; since then, their 43-19 record is the best in the sport.

Atlanta Braves

Historical comp: 1995 Atlanta Braves

Believe it or not — and the 2014 Giants don’t — but the 1995 Braves actually own the worst offense to win a World Series in the divisional era. (We’re judging that just by runs scored compared to the league average.) But that pitching staff? Yeah, that’s how you clinch a World Series over a juggernaut offense with a 1-0 victory.

This year’s Braves team isn’t running out a Hall of Famer each night, but it’s been nearly as good overall as the ’95 squad (a 120 ERA+ this season versus 123 in 1995). This team isn’t as good striking out hitters, but it is more adept at hitting the long ball, which sure came in handy back then.

New York Mets

Historical comp: 2006 St. Louis Cardinals

Sure, a team every Mets fan wants to remember! If New York is going to make an unexpected run through the National League bracket, it will require the kind of surprise pitching performances that propelled St. Louis to a championship in 2006. Jeff Suppan was the NLCS MVP (over New York), and Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes were stars that autumn.

The Mets’ pitching staff has been solid but unspectacular, and they’ve been especially susceptible to free passes. But it’s not too hard to imagine Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and David Peterson stepping up and filling the roles of those St. Louis starters from ’06.

New York Yankees

Historical comp: 1983 Baltimore Orioles

Outside of their strikeout-to-walk ratios being out of whack, this might be the closest comparison on the board. Both teams finished with run differentials of +147. The Yankees scored 15 percent more than the league average, the ’83 Orioles 14 percent more. New York’s ERA+? 110. Baltimore’s? 109.

Both teams hit homers at clips at least 30 percent better than the league average. Something tells me the Yankees may lean on that more this October than the O’s did back in ’83, though. Baltimore hit nine homers in nine postseason games.

Cleveland Guardians

Historical comp: 1990 Cincinnati Reds

There’s no “Nasty Boys” nickname for them yet, but the Guardians own as dominant a late-game relief corps as the league has seen in a while. Emmanuel Clase put the finishing touches on one of the best closer seasons in history, and Case Smith, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Eli Morgan all also have ERAs under two.

The Reds rode Randy Myers, Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble to a surprising sweep of the powerhouse Oakland Athletics in the World Series. Cincinnati’s bullpen that postseason pitched 31 1/3 innings and allowed one — ONE! — earned run. That made up for a thoroughly average offense.

Houston Astros

Historical comp: 1980 Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies didn’t enter the 1980 postseason with the playoff bona fides of the current Astros, but it wasn’t for a lack of experience. Philly had been bounced in the NLCS three times in the previous four years. The ’80 team was solid all around, outside of a penchant for the free pass. The same goes for this version of the Astros, whose offense isn’t quite as dominant as it has been in recent years.

Baltimore Orioles

Historical comp: 1992 Toronto Blue Jays

Baltimore’s strength is an offense built around the home run that helps mitigate a mediocre pitching staff. The Orioles’ ERA+ of 96 would tie the 2012 Giants for the worst for a World Series winner in the divisional era. But their ability to hit the ball out of the park is a game-changer, and that tends to be precisely that in October. The ’92 Blue Jays hit 40 percent more homers than the league average; Baltimore is just under 30 percent.

Both these O’s and those Jays could lean on an ace in the pitching staff. Baltimore has Corbin Burnes and Toronto had breakout star Juan Guzmán.

Detroit Tigers

Historical comp: 2003 Florida Marlins

In fairness, the ’03 Marlins commenced their out-of-nowhere playoff spring quite a bit earlier than this year’s Tigers. That said, both finished with a flourish: Florida went 18-8 in September, Detroit 17-8.

They’re pretty similar beyond that. The Marlins scored four percent less than the league average, the Tigers two percent. Both teams allowed 10 percent fewer runs than the average, and each hit far fewer homers than the average team. And in Tarik Skubal, Detroit has a pitcher capable of being the lights-out breakout ace that Josh Beckett was in 2003.

Kansas City Royals

Historical comp: 1997 Florida Marlins

Let’s close with two styles of fish. Whereas the ’03 Marlins had surged, the ’97 squad had floundered in the final month of the season, going 12-15. That’s similar to the 11-14 month the Royals just completed, though both teams had done enough earlier in the season to remain surprise playoff participants.

The similarities don’t end there. Florida relied more on its pitching staff than an offense that didn’t hit many home runs. The Royals’ main strength is their starting rotation.

World Series Winners

Year	Team	W	L	Pct	Run Diff	RS+	RA+	OBP+	SLG+	HR+	ERA+	K%+	BB%+
1969	New York	100	62	0.617	91	96	118	97	95	84	122	111	105
1970	Baltimore	108	54	0.667	218	113	118	106	104	126	116	103	116
1971	Pittsburgh	97	65	0.599	189	125	105	104	114	128	104	92	111
1972	Oakland	93	62	0.6	147	106	120	98	103	122	111	102	113
1973	Oakland	94	68	0.58	143	111	110	102	103	113	109	96	107
1974	Oakland	90	72	0.556	138	103	117	99	101	120	113	97	117
1975	Cincinnati	108	54	0.667	254	123	114	108	107	109	107	83	112
1976	Cincinnati	102	60	0.63	224	133	102	112	117	150	100	101	106
1977	New York	100	62	0.617	180	115	110	105	111	131	109	93	106
1978	New York	100	63	0.613	153	110	113	102	102	110	115	107	108
1979	Pittsburgh	98	64	0.605	132	107	111	100	105	111	114	115	105
1980	Philadelphia	91	71	0.562	89	105	108	100	103	99	110	113	96
1981	Los Angeles	63	47	0.573	94	102	119	101	101	79	112	118	112
1982	St. Louis	92	70	0.568	76	98	113	103	94	52	109	85	101
1983	Baltimore	98	64	0.605	147	114	107	105	108	133	109	94	112
1984	Detroit	104	58	0.642	186	120	107	106	112	150	113	107	104
1985	Kansas City	91	71	0.562	48	98	109	97	103	111	118	98	113
1986	New York	108	54	0.667	205	110	119	104	102	100	115	114	107
1987	Minnesota	85	77	0.525	-20	103	95	99	104	114	99	103	98
1988	Los Angeles	94	67	0.584	84	94	118	96	93	80	114	116	104
1989	Oakland	99	63	0.611	136	106	114	103	102	107	119	105	100
1990	Cincinnati	91	71	0.562	96	100	113	100	104	98	118	113	97
1991	Minnesota	95	67	0.586	124	111	107	107	109	108	116	95	108
1992	Toronto	96	66	0.593	98	117	98	103	110	140	104	107	96
1993	Toronto	95	67	0.586	105	114	100	105	108	110	103	108	86
1995	Atlanta	90	54	0.625	105	92	123	96	98	103	123	124	111
1996	New York	92	70	0.568	84	107	104	106	102	92	108	110	93
1997	Florida	92	70	0.568	71	96	113	103	94	82	106	112	85
1998	New York	114	48	0.704	309	124	115	109	110	123	116	104	113
1999	New York	98	64	0.605	169	109	111	106	104	105	113	109	101
2000	New York	87	74	0.54	57	105	102	103	103	108	102	101	104
2001	Arizona	92	70	0.568	141	106	113	103	104	115	121	123	110
2002	Anaheim	99	63	0.611	207	114	114	103	104	90	120	97	104
2003	Florida	91	71	0.562	59	98	110	100	100	91	105	112	99
2004	Boston	98	64	0.605	181	122	101	107	110	122	116	108	116
2005	Chicago	99	63	0.611	96	100	113	98	101	120	125	102	109
2006	St. Louis	83	78	0.516	19	100	103	100	100	102	98	93	103
2007	Boston	96	66	0.593	210	111	116	108	105	100	123	111	107
2008	Philadelphia	92	70	0.568	119	106	110	100	105	132	112	99	102
2009	New York	103	59	0.636	162	123	99	109	114	145	108	112	97
2010	San Francisco	92	70	0.568	114	98	118	99	101	105	117	117	90
2011	St. Louis	90	72	0.556	70	110	100	106	107	106	99	95	111
2012	San Francisco	94	68	0.58	69	103	107	103	98	62	96	102	100
2013	Boston	97	65	0.599	197	126	103	110	113	114	109	106	92
2014	San Francisco	88	74	0.543	51	101	107	99	101	95	99	100	114
2015	Kansas City	95	67	0.586	83	105	107	102	102	85	112	93	96
2016	Chicago	103	58	0.64	252	112	123	107	103	106	133	115	98
2017	Houston	101	61	0.623	196	119	107	107	112	117	99	120	100
2018	Boston	108	54	0.667	229	122	110	107	111	112	118	113	102
2019	Washington	93	69	0.574	149	112	107	106	104	103	106	107	101
2020	Los Angeles	43	17	0.717	136	125	124	105	116	154	146	102	127
2021	Atlanta	88	73	0.547	134	108	110	101	106	121	112	103	100
2022	Houston	106	56	0.654	219	106	125	102	107	123	132	116	104
2023	Texas	90	72	0.556	165	118	104	105	109	119	100	99	105
2024	Los Angeles	98	64	0.605	156	118	104	107	112	128	99	101	99
2024	Philadelphia	95	67	0.586	113	110	106	104	107	109	106	105	110
2024	New York	94	68	0.58	147	115	106	107	108	130	110	105	94
2024	Milwaukee	93	69	0.574	136	109	110	104	101	97	116	101	101
2024	San Diego	93	69	0.574	91	107	106	104	105	104	107	107	106
2024	Cleveland	92	69	0.571	87	100	112	98	99	102	114	105	99
2024	Baltimore	91	71	0.562	87	111	102	104	109	129	96	101	103
2024	Arizona	89	73	0.549	98	125	89	108	110	116	91	93	105
2024	New York	88	72	0.55	73	108	102	103	104	113	101	105	83
2024	Houston	88	73	0.547	91	105	108	103	105	104	106	109	90
2024	Atlanta	88	72	0.55	95	99	115	99	104	116	120	115	107
2024	Kansas City	86	76	0.531	91	103	109	98	101	93	113	99	103
2024	Detroit	86	76	0.531	40	96	110	96	96	89	113	101	114