Welcome back, Lamar Jackson. Hello, Sam Darnold.
Recovering from a Week 4 dip (+2000), Jackson’s odds to win NFL MVP for a second consecutive year have shortened quite a bit (+1000) after he led the Baltimore Ravens to a 35-10 takedown of the Buffalo Bills.
Jackson’s MVP odds opened at +1200, and by Week 4, he was sixth on the board behind Allen, Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Jalen Hurts and Aaron Rodgers. While Jackson’s odds are shortening, Hurts and Rodgers are coming off Week 4 losses that hurt them in the capricious world of MVP odds.
Former front-runner Josh Allen (+260) is now a hair below Patrick Mahomes (+240) at the top of the betting board, but the two are in a class of their own, betting odds speaking, with Jackson a distant third.
One other quarterback has been making waves lately.
What do you know — is that Sam Darnold in fourth place? Yes, it is. Darnold’s MVP odds have been a rocket ship straight up from the bottom. He started at 200-to-1 and is now down to 11-to-1 odds, tied with C.J. Stroud and breathing down the neck of last year’s MVP, Jackson.
These three — Jackson, Darnold and Stroud — form a tier of their own before we get to Brock Purdy at +1800 and Jared Goff at +2500, and then a whopping six at +3000: Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Baker Mayfield and rookie Jayden Daniels.
That six-way tie obscures the contrasting momentum for these quarterbacks. Prescott and Hurts are on teams that seem to be teetering on real trouble, Mayfield and Burrow are moving in the right direction, and Rodgers — well, was that nine-point game against the Broncos just a fluke or a red flag?
Here are the latest odds for the 2024 NFL MVP winner. Plus, a quick look at risers and fallers in Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year (hello, Jayden Daniels!).
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NFL MVP winner odds
Yes, these weekly fluctuations sometimes show how silly it is to be tracking MVP odds at this point in the season, but that’s also what makes the betting game more fun. Nothing is better than remembering you put a couple of bucks on a player at +2000 in Week 4 when the MVP is awarded at the end of the season. But we digress.
When looking at the NFL awards landscape as a whole, Derrick Henry, you have our attention.
The Baltimore running back is another notable mention after his monster game propelled the Ravens to a win against the Bills. Henry went from +8000 to win Offensive Player of the Year before the season started to +550. He now sits right behind the favorite, Saquon Barkley, whose odds have also shortened considerably. On the flip side, Tyreek Hill and Ja’Marr Chase are moving in the wrong direction.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year odds
Henry’s odds shift is a reflection of the Ravens’ trajectory. On their first play against the Bills on Sunday night, Henry made an 87-yard touchdown run that wiped our memories clear of the team’s 0-2 start. “King” Henry went on to rush for 199 yards on 24 carries with an average of 8.3 yards per carry. His 480 yards and five touchdowns are good for tops in the league.
Saquon Barkley is perhaps an exact contrast to Henry because his odds have improved as his team’s odds have faded. The Eagles’ futures have lengthened slightly since the start of the season, while Barkley’s have been shortening. He opened at +2500 and now sits at +400.
In close third is the phenom Justin Jefferson at +600. Receiving for this season’s breakout QB Darnold, Jefferson has been unstoppable in helping lead the Minnesota Vikings’ to their stunning 4-0 start. While the Vikings’ dominance is a surprise, Jefferson’s abilities are not: He opened at +650 odds to win this award, just behind Christian McCaffrey (who is off the board now) and Tyreek Hill (who is mired in a dreadful Miami team without Tua Tagovailoa).
NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds
The Detroit Lions are celebrating a star-making Monday Night Football display against the 3-1 Seattle Seahawks. And defensive end Aidan Hutchinson has been a big part of this team’s success. His odds to win the award to start the season were +1100, and now he’s tied with star Steeler T.J. Watt for the lead, way ahead of the Niners’ Nick Bosa in third.
Bosa, Kansas City’s Chris Jones and Cleveland’s Myles Garrett form a close tier below the top two.
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds
Well, well, well, if this isn’t a little LSU party.
This award is Jayden Daniels’ to lose, at least after Week 4. Daniels has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year, not to mention one of the best rookies on the field. His odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year opened at +900, and now it would be tough to find him at plus-money.
His fellow LSU alum Malik Nabers has also given a standout rookie performance as a bright spot on a tough New York Giants season thus far, with his odds shortening from +700 to +375.
Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. have both seen their odds lengthen this week but are looking solid in their rookie seasons as their teams find footing.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)
