The Alabama-Georgia game was going to be a massive mover in the national title odds, no matter which team won. It was one of the most important games on the college football calendar, with two of the biggest powers in the sport squaring off. Alabama’s big victory has shaken up the betting board, as the Crimson Tide have moved up to become the co-favorite with Ohio State to win the national title.
Alabama and Ohio State are both listed at +375 on BetMGM to win it all in January.
The Crimson Tide were +800 before the 41-34 win against Georgia, and the odds aren’t even half that long now. Georgia moved in the other direction, going from co-favorite with the Buckeyes at +350 to now being +650.
As for the other contenders, Ohio State hasn’t had a marquee game yet like many of its other top counterparts. The Buckeyes beat Michigan State 38-7 on the road on Saturday in their first Big Ten game of the season. Iowa heads to Columbus this week before a biggie in Oregon the following week. Oregon is fifth in the national title odds at +1000.
Texas, which lost the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25 but retained that spot in the coaches poll, is next on the odds board at +500. The Longhorns have cruised through five games, including winning by 19 points at defending champion Michigan. Texas is off this week, which could help quarterback Quinn Ewers return in time for the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma on Oct. 12. The following week, Texas takes on Georgia, so we’ll know a lot more about the Longhorns in a few weeks.
Unsurprisingly, the SEC is all over the top of the national title odds board. Seven of the top 14 teams in the odds are SEC schools (Alabama, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri). The Big Ten has four (Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, USC). Miami (+1600) and Clemson (+4000) are in the mix as the ACC’s top contenders. Notre Dame also cracks that top group at +5000.
Ole Miss dropped from +1300 to +2000 with its loss to Kentucky on Saturday. One loss isn’t as damning as it used to be in the four-team era of the College Football Playoff. The Rebels have back-to-back road games at South Carolina and LSU coming up and have home games against Oklahoma and Georgia still ahead. It won’t be easy for Ole Miss to get to 10 wins, which is the number many expect to be enough for consideration for the new 12-team playoff.
College football national title odds
Odds update live and are from BetMGM.
Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projection model has Ohio State as the most likely national title winner, giving the Buckeyes a 19 percent chance to lift the gold and steel trophy. That jives with BetMGM’s odds. What doesn’t is where Georgia and Alabama sit. The Bulldogs are higher than Alabama even after that loss. Mock gives Georgia a 16 percent chance to win the national title, while Alabama is at 14 percent. Georgia is the top-rated team in Mock’s model (while Alabama is fifth), but with a tough schedule, he has Georgia finishing 9-3.
Georgia still has to play Texas and Ole Miss on the road and hosts Tennessee. If Georgia goes 9-3 with that schedule, the Bulldogs could still be the top 9-3 team on the board, but getting into the CFP with that record could be dicey. We haven’t seen how a committee will rank teams in the 12-team playoff yet, so who knows how things will shake out.
(Photo of Ryan Williams: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
