The last team in the postseason field, the Atlanta Braves endured an injury-filled year to punch their ticket with a win in the second game of Monday’s doubleheader against the Mets, and now must travel across the country to San Diego to play a day later. The Padres enter October with a roster full of stars and a bullpen that has at least three closers, while the Braves bring a patchwork roster guided by past World Series experience. The best-of-three Wild Card Series kicks off Tuesday, with the winner advancing to face the NL’s top seed, the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Game times
Game 1: Braves at Padres, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 8:38 p.m. ET, ESPN
Game 2: Braves at Padres, Wednesday, Oct. 2, 8:38 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Game 3: Braves at Padres, Thursday, Oct. 3, 7:08 p.m. ET, ESPN (if necessary)
Pitching matchups
The Padres probably have the best pitching staff in the postseason. The Braves probably have the best single pitcher in this series, assuming he’s available.
If you focus the Padres down to their best four starters and best four relievers, strip the park effects and use traditional and advanced stats in your projections, you’ll find the Padres with the No. 1 rotation and the No. 1 bullpen in the playoffs. Dylan Cease is a true ace with high-90s gas and a killer breaking ball, veterans Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish need little introduction (especially since they seem to have recaptured most of their usual form after some absences this year), and Michael King will probably serve as the glue in case anything goes wrong.
The Braves come in taxed, and with Chris Sale suffering back spasms, but if he’s able to go, they have an instant advantage as the 35-year-old lefty looked vintage this year on the way to possible hardware. Reynaldo López and Grant Holmes pitched twice in the final day-plus, and rookie revelation Spencer Schwellenbach used his deceptive fastball in Monday’s doubleheader as well. Plus Charlie Morton pitched on the final Sunday! The Braves still have some firepower with Max Fried and (maybe) Sale, but the circumstances have reduced their depth especially.
In the bullpen, Raisel Iglesias pitched both games of the doubleheader, and most of Atlanta’s back-end relievers had to pitch at least once. They’ll be tired, while the Padres will benefit from rest with their revamped relief roster that features firepower from both sides of the mound (Robert Suarez and Tanner Scott) as well as funk (Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada) and even a little quality depth beyond them.
This will be an uphill battle for the Braves. But they’ve gotten used to battling.— Eno Sarris
Why the Padres will win
No team won more games after the All-Star break. The Padres went 43-20, including 19-8 at Petco Park. This wild-card round will bring the venue’s first playoff games since 2022, since the death of beloved owner Peter Seidler and since the Padres concluded perhaps the greatest second half in franchise history. It’s going to be loud.
In front of raucous crowds, the Padres will deploy what might be the best starting rotation in this postseason. They are well-equipped to shorten games with what might be the best bullpen in baseball. San Diego pitchers combined to log a 2.99 ERA at home in the second half.
The Padres’ most distinct edge, however, could come from their offense. For the first time ever, they finished the regular season leading the majors in batting average. They struck out less often than any other team. As the margins thin in October, their contact-oriented ways could make all the difference. — Dennis Lin
Why the Braves will win
The Braves will have to fly across the country late Monday to begin a Wild Card Series against the Padres at Petco Park, less than 24 hours after wrapping up the regular season with a stressful doubleheader Monday against the Mets, while other MLB teams were relaxing. But the Braves say they’ve been hardened by adversity after overcoming injury after injury since Opening Day (when Sean Murphy strained an oblique, which landed him on the IL for two months).
They lost preseason Cy Young Award favorite Spencer Strider to elbow surgery after two starts. Lost Ronald Acuña Jr. to knee surgery in late May. Lost Ozzie Albies (fractured wrist) for two months, and both Austin Riley (broken hand) and A.J. Minter (hip surgery) to season-ending injuries in mid-August. Starter Reynaldo López has had two IL stints since the All-Star break but is healthy now.
Here’s why they’ll win the series: Starting pitching depth, although that was reduced by Chris Sale being scratched for Monday’s doubleheader Game 2 with back spasms. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Sale hasn’t been ruled out for the Wild Card Series because he has spasms and could feel better at any time. Without him, it’s unclear who’ll start Tuesday’s series opener. But unlike the past two postseasons when the Braves limped in with multiple starters on the IL or coming off illness or injury, their rotation this time still features a healthy Max Fried; López, who pitched an inning of relief on one day of rest Monday but would likely get a Game 3 start if the series goes the distance; and 40-year-old Charlie Morton, who has a wealth of postseason experience. Prized rookie Spencer Schwellenbach pitched Monday and won’t be available for the Wild Card Series. — David O’Brien
Note: Check back later for series predictions from The Athletic’s MLB staff.
Padres player spotlight: Jackson Merrill, CF
As a high school senior, Merrill played in only 15 games. Just three years later, he played in 156 games, starred on both sides of the ball, repeatedly delivered in the clutch and ranked seventh in the National League — between Matt Chapman and Bryce Harper — in FanGraphs wins above replacement. Merrill, 21, isn’t just a potential Rookie of the Year. He has been San Diego’s most valuable player, and without his precocious production, the Padres very well could have missed the postseason. Now, on an elevated stage, he’ll have more opportunities to prove he’s already one of the most dynamic performers in baseball. “I’m just excited to play more,” Merrill said. “I feel like 162 isn’t even enough.” — Dennis Lin
Braves player spotlight: Raisel Iglesias, closer
He flies a bit under the radar because he doesn’t throw 100-103 mph or strike out two batters per inning. But Iglesias was the premier closer in the NL this season, with excellent command of a four-pitch mix that enables him to work efficiently and allows manager Brian Snitker to deploy him in two-inning save situations. Snitker might’ve gone to that well one too many times Monday when Igesias gave up a single, sac fly and three-run homer (Brandon Nimmo) to the three batters he faced in the eighth inning of the loss in the doubleheader opener. Before that, Iglesias had six two-inning appearances in his past 30 games, allowing four hits and no earned runs in those outings. He had surrendered no earned runs in 35 of 36 appearances before Monday’s rough one, yielding a .118 average and .349 OPS in that span while totaling 48 strikeouts, seven walks and one homer allowed in 41 1/3 innings. His 0.71 WHIP before Monday was second-lowest among qualified MLB pitchers, behind Cleveland closer Emmanuel Clase (0.66). — David O’Brien
Tale of the Tape
| TEAMS | R/G | SP ERA | RP ERA | DRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Braves |
4.34 (15th)
|
3.62 (3rd)
|
3.25 (3rd)
|
41 (8th)
|
 Padres |
4.69 (8th)
|
3.91 (12th)
|
3.78 (11th)
|
-3 (21st)
|
| PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Padres top performers
|
 Jurickson Profar |
LF
|
24 HR, .380 OBP, 134 OPS+
|
3.7
|
|
Rotation
|
 Michael King |
SP
|
2.95 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 139 ERA+
|
4.1
|
|
Bullpen
|
 Robert Suarez |
RHP
|
2.77 ERA, 36 Saves, 8.2 K/9
|
2
|
|
Fielding
|
 Jackson Merrill |
CF
|
148 Starts, 5.2 UZR
|
6.3
|
| PLAYER | POS | KEY STATISTICS | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Lineup
|
 Marcell Ozuna |
DH
|
39 HR, .302 AVG, .924 OPS
|
4.4
|
|
Rotation
|
 Chris Sale |
LHP
|
2.38 ERA, 225 SO, 1.01 WHIP
|
6.2
|
|
Bullpen
|
 Raisel Iglesias |
RHP
|
1.95 ERA, 34 SV
|
3.0
|
|
Fielding
|
 Matt Olson |
1B
|
14 DRS
|
3.9
|
Padres must-reads
Luis Arraez is both admired and maligned — but the Padres don’t debate his value
The Padres have surged since the All-Star break. The preparation began long before then
Jackson Merrill’s surprising power has altered the course of this Padres season
How the red-hot Padres cultivated MLB’s most contact-prone offense
Braves must-reads
Braves’ Max Fried throws a gem at a crucial time: Will it be his last home start?
Injury-riddled and written off, Braves now stand on verge of postseason berth
Three Braves takeaways: RISP woes, Marcell Ozuna’s power outage and more
Will Braves first baseman Matt Olson be the last MLB Iron Man of the 21st century?
(Top image: Manny Machado: Justin Berl / Getty Images; Chris Sale: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
