Hey all. We’ve made it through the first month of the first 12-team College Football Playoff season. I don’t know about you, but I’m having fun.
Naturally, we didn’t even get to October before talk began anew about tinkering with the thing already.
(Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
Why are the SEC and Big Ten talking about multiple guaranteed Playoff spots? Are they afraid they can’t win those spots on the field? — Martin D., Detroit
Well for one, because they can. In the new CFP contract that begins in 2026, the SEC and Big Ten can institute changes to the format without the others’ approval. Really. The take-our-ball-and-walk threats worked.
But more so: They don’t trust the selection committee to properly reward their teams for what they believe are tougher schedules than everyone else’s. As we know, in its first decade of existence, the committee still mostly defaulted to “one loss is better than two, two losses is better than three.” I suspect that will change in the super conference era, as no one could say that Georgia’s schedule this year and, using a random example, BYU’s, are remotely comparable.
Theoretically, if you went ahead and said the first-, second- and third-place teams in the Big Ten and SEC advance to the CFP, it takes some subjectivity out of the process. It also incentivizes teams to schedule tough nonconference opponents if they know they won’t be penalized for it.
All that being said: Give me a freaking break. You guys are going to each get three to five teams in every year. You don’t need it in writing. All that does is tarnish the CFP’s credibility by making it look rigged.
Furthermore, not all Big Ten and SEC schedules are created equal. If Georgia goes 9-3 against its Murderer’s Row this year (vs. Clemson, at Alabama, at Texas, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee), then yes, that’s going to be more impressive than a 10-2 ACC or Big 12 team. Also, Rutgers, for example, is only playing one current Top 25 team this season (USC) and could well finish third in the Big Ten while being its sixth-best team. But it’d be guaranteed a spot?
During negotiations last spring, Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti was the lone voice pushing for self-interested changes like expansion to 14 teams and a guaranteed first-round bye. It will be interesting to see whether Greg Sankey and his members decide to lock arms with him, or, hopefully, recognize they don’t need protection.
I’m a Wisconsin fan, but I think I speak for Auburn, Florida and other fan bases when I ask: How is Indiana doing this? We are multiple years into painful rebuilds with no end in sight, while a coach no one heard of took a job no one wanted and turned them into a Top 25 team IMMEDIATELY. How is he doing this and why should we not expect similar results? — Vinny from Kewaskum, Wis.
I realize the Hoosiers have not faced the stiffest competition, but what Curt Cignetti has done is still remarkable. Indiana, which went 3-24 in the Big Ten over Tom Allen’s last three seasons, is not just 5-0, it’s a dominant 5-0. In the last two weeks of September a year ago, the Hoosiers needed four overtimes to survive Akron and lost 44-17 at Maryland.
Those same two weeks this year: Beat Charlotte 52-14 and beat Maryland 42-28.
It all starts with the quarterback, something Wisconsin has been struggling to figure out for years. Cignetti beat out BYU, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt for Ohio’s Kurtis Rourke. He was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2022 but tore his ACL late that season, and missed part of last season with a separate injury. His production dipped quite a bit, which likely scared away bigger schools. You would think a three-year starter for a decent G5 program would command his share of offers.
Cignetti then surrounded Rourke with key pieces, including several who followed him from James Madison. They include leading receiver Elijah Sarratt (JMU) and top two rushers Justice Ellison (Wake Forest) and Ty Son Lawton (JMU). It speaks to how many good players there are at that level.
What’s interesting is both Cignetti and Billy Napier were hired from Sun Belt schools. Napier, who went 40-12 in four seasons at Louisiana, had not even coached his first game at Florida when the narrative started forming that he was in over his head (the nickname “Sun Belt Billy” became a thing at some point). Perhaps it helped Cignetti that he went to a school with considerably lower expectations that don’t involve top 10 recruiting classes and national titles.
But also, look at their track records. Napier, 45, fits the model of guys like Tom Herman, Scott Frost, Willie Taggart, et al., who were hired off one impressive but brief G5 run. Cignetti, 63, has been a head coach since 2011, at three different levels, and was successful at every stop (IUP, Elon and JMU). He wasn’t kidding when he said at his news conference, “I win. Google me.” There’s no way to say for sure, but all that program-building experience likely helped for such a smooth transition at Indiana.
As for your beloved Badgers — keep the faith. But I’m sure some of their fans are starting to get nervous that Luke Fickell may be in the Herman/Frost bucket.
Regarding Kirby Smart, can you be “the best coach in college football” and have one team that you consistently fail against? I would think, logically, it’s hard to be the best if there’s a team that is always better than you. — Tim, a Georgia fan in Alabama
Great question. It certainly didn’t help Kirby’s cause that once his mentor/thorn finally retired, a new coach came in and immediately shredded his vaunted defense to smithereens much like Bryce Young and Jameson Williams did in the 2021 SEC championship game. Of course, he then avenged that debacle in that year’s national championship game, and may well get that chance again as soon as December.
What I’d say is, he’s not the first acclaimed coach to have this problem.
Starting in 1973, Nebraska’s Tom Osborne lost nine of his first 10 meetings with Barry Switzer’s Oklahoma teams, all but one of which the Huskers were ranked in the top 10. And he did not win his first national championship until his 22nd season. Smart won his first in his sixth season and would need to lose three more Alabama games before winning another.
Florida State Hall of Famer Bobby Bowden might have won more than two national championships had his kickers stopped missing field goals against Miami. From 1987-92, the rivals met as top-10 opponents in six consecutive seasons. FSU went 1-5 in those matchups. Sound familiar?
And of course, more recently, we have Jim Harbaugh starting 0-5 against Ohio State, causing doofuses like me to conclude he’d lost his fastball, only to come storming back, win three in a row and a national title.
One close comparison does come to mind, though: From 2000-09, Texas’ Mack Brown averaged 11 wins per season, and finished in the top 10 all but three seasons. He also, however, began that stretch by losing five straight Red River Shootouts to Bob Stoops, including two in which his team gave up 60-plus points. Oklahoma won six Big 12 titles that decade to Texas’ two.
But Brown got a national championship in 2005, and that’s what most people think of first when his name is mentioned. Smart already has two. Time will tell whether the Alabama struggles similarly become a footnote.
How much money would Florida State boosters be willing to donate to entice DJU to sit out the rest of the season? — Phil J.
I suppose it would have to be as much as they paid him to come there.
Next up in college football: Player buyouts?
Hypothetically, the new Super League (CSFL) starts today! Who are your top 72 programs getting in? — Lee M.
The group that put that proposal together got it pretty much right, taking all the Power 4 schools, Notre Dame, Washington State, Oregon State and Memphis. I think I’d quibble only with the 72nd member. We could pick any number of other G5 programs — Boise State, Appalachian State, San Diego State, Tulane — more deserving of a seat in the upper division.
But let’s be honest: There is never going to be a 72-team Super League. If and when that day comes, it will be much more exclusive.
When we first reported about this in-progress project last spring, it was still very much underground. They made a presentation to the ACC but had not yet made traction beyond that. Six months later, that largely remains the case, despite the fact the proposed House settlement arguably makes it more timely.
While the group doesn’t emphasize this in the official literature, their simple pitch is this: You need money, we can deliver it. Part of that is the promise of a much more lucrative TV contract if the conferences all join together and consolidate their media rights. The other, of course, is that private equity partners will be falling over themselves.
But here’s the thing: The ACC, Big 12 and G5 may need more money to afford revenue-sharing. The Big Ten and SEC do not. Sure, they could always use a little more. Hence, Tennessee’s “talent fee” on tickets. But not so much as to break up their football conferences, join forces with a whole bunch of schools they consider beneath them and potentially sell a stake of their media rights to an outside partner.
In a more egalitarian sports league, the proposal actually makes a lot of sense. It would institute a lot of common-sense features like standardized scheduling, geographic rivals and a defined way to move up and down the hierarchy.
But – that is not college football.
How you do you view the accomplishment of Matt Campbell becoming the winningest coach at Iowa State? I know most people will pooh-pooh this, but it isn’t a place that is easy to win at and win at consistently. — Brian S.
It’s a great accomplishment.
Over the past few years, I’ve witnessed Campbell become one of the more polarizing names on my annual coach rankings. I assume many people got sick of hearing his name mentioned for other jobs only for it to never come to fruition. He’s still in Ames. But others just see a resume full of 7-6 seasons and either aren’t aware or don’t care just how outside of the norm it is for an Iowa State coach to continually win more games than he loses.
As evidenced by the fact that a guy who’s only been there for eight-plus seasons is already the winningest coach in school history. Everyone else either got fired or got a better job well before the ninth season. And that it “only” took 57 wins to get there.
In the current era of the sport, with its ever-increasing reliance on NIL and the portal, Campbell is the rare coach still out there developing a roster full of (mostly) guys he’s coached for four or five years. Ten starters on this year’s team — which I moved into my latest projected bracket Sunday as Big 12 champ — have been in the program for at least four seasons. Just like Brock Purdy and so many others over the last half-decade.
All of which should provide context as to why winning 57 games at Iowa State is an impressive accomplishment. But if you just want objective data, there is this: One-third of Iowa State’s all-time bowl appearances – six out of 18 – have come since Campbell arrived in 2016.
How surprising was UNLV’s decision to stay in the Mountain West? It seems they took short-term cash in exchange for lower long-term prospects. I can’t imagine Barry Odom stays much longer if he keeps winning. — Brad B., Seattle
I wouldn’t call it surprising, just because UNLV’s athletic department desperately needs cash. But it’s definitely shortsighted.
As of earlier this year, the school was projecting a cumulative $21 million deficit over the next four years and needs to rely heavily on university subsidies. The Mountain West is promising cold hard cash in the form of $10-$14 million next year and another $9 million-$11 million over the six years after that. Plus, no exit fees if a Power 4 league comes calling. That’s pretty darn enticing. Especially when the new Pac-12 has no idea what it will be getting from its currently non-existent TV deal.
However, the MWC itself has no TV deal in place post-2026, and its new roster is, to put it nicely, blech. No network or streaming service is going to be banging down the league’s door for the rights to San Jose State, Nevada, Wyoming and friends. UNLV has only been good for season-and-a-half and it’s arguably the biggest draw outside of Air Force.
Obviously, UNLV hopes to eventually land in a P4 league, and the best thing it could do to achieve that is make the CFP. But it’s going to be next time impossible in such a watered-down league.
The new Pac-12 is not going to be rolling in bank either, but it will likely be north of $10 million a year. Washington State and Oregon State have P5 legacy cachet, Boise State is the most recognized brand in the entire Group of 5, and San Diego State and Fresno State have been nationally competitive. Also, UNLV takes a lot of pride in basketball, and I’m sure they were privy to Gonzaga’s now-completed entry. Instead, they chose the conference that just added UTEP football, with its three bowl appearances since 2006.
Mind you, the Pac-12 still needs one more full member to comply with NCAA rules, and the options are not much better than UTEP. But there are already enough ingredients in the mixer to make a decent meal. UNLV would have made it even better.
Why would schools stay in the Mountain West when they could join the Pac-12 and be part of The Alliance? I know the Pac-12 doesn’t exactly have a TV contract, but surely the scheduling advantages and stability The Alliance promised make the Pac-12 the obvious choice. — Jason, Fort Payne, Ala.
It did not occur to me until seeing this question that there are now six schools – USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal – that have been members of multiple Alliance conferences.
There is no such thing as stability in conference realignment. But it does produce endless comic fodder.
(Top photo: Jeff Hanisch / Imagn Images)
