The NFL is an unpredictable place.
My NFL Projection Model does its best to foresee what’s most likely to happen, but it’s inevitably going to get a few things wrong. That’s life in the prognostication business.
Still, we’re going to hold ourselves accountable, and four weeks into the season, I thought it would be a good time to look back at some of the model’s preseason predictions and see where it might have erred. In the spirit of learning from mistakes, I’ll do some self-scouting and examine the model’s five biggest misses through the first month of the year and target the biggest reasons for why they happened.
Washington Commanders
Preseason playoff odds: 7%
Current playoff odds: 60%
I’m not ashamed to admit when I’m wrong, and I’m confident my model missed on the Commanders offense. But I’m not beating myself up over it. If you had QB Jayden Daniels leading the league in EPA/dropback and dropback success rate through the first month, then I’d like to know your thoughts on this week’s lottery numbers.
Rookie quarterbacks are usually not great. Since 2004, you can expect a quarterback drafted in the top seven to win 39% of his starts, with a -0.04 EPA/dropback and a 41% dropback success rate. Daniels is currently winning 75% of his starts, has a 0.32 EPA/Dropback and a 57% dropback success rate. By comparison, last year’s rookie phenom — Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud — won 60% of his starts, amassed a 0.11 EPA/dropback and a 47% dropback success rate.
Do I think Daniels’ current rate is sustainable? Of course not. But the Commanders offense is still much better than I expected. You have to be impressed with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, too. His track record as an offensive coordinator is as good as it gets, and he’s pushing all the right buttons for his rookie QB.
I still think the Commanders will come back to earth a bit, but they’re going to flirt with being an above-average unit. Why not better? The first concern is that the offense hasn’t been truly tested. The New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, and Arizona Cardinals are all near the bottom of the league in my defensive projections, and the Commanders struggled against the one defense that wasn’t (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) until the game got out of hand.
The other issue with the Commanders is that I think their defense is bad. Any lapse by the offense will be felt by having the league’s worst defense by EPA/play, according to TruMedia. Despite those concerns, however, the rest of the division doesn’t look great (more on that soon), and my model sees the Commanders as the new favorites to win the NFC East.
Betting breakout
While I think the Washington offense will come back to earth, Dallas is a mess with injuries. The Cowboys are underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers this week just to show how far they’ve fallen. I believe the Cowboys are getting too much credit in the market (the Eagles, too), so I think the Commanders are currently at a favorable price.
Minnesota Vikings
Preseason playoff odds: 17%
Current playoff odds: 90%
Here’s another QB playing at an MVP level that I did not see coming. Funny enough, I actually thought my model was a little bullish on Sam Darnold and the Vikings heading into the year with their projected record at 7-10. Turns out, the model wasn’t bullish enough. The Vikings are the only unbeaten team left in the NFC and now have a great shot (35%) at securing the first-round bye. It should also be noted they’ve got some impressive wins on their résumé with victories over the San Francisco 49ers, Texans and Green Bay Packers.
.@JJettas2 you are unreal. Literally not real.
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— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 29, 2024
Again, I have to credit the coaching staff. Coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores are getting the most out of their personnel. Coaching is one of the biggest challenges for the model. Quality coaching — or lack there of — can make a huge difference for teams, but it’s not easy to quantify or project. Take the Darnold experience. His New York Jets tenure was a disaster, and he was only OK in Carolina. The model expected he would play better in a better situation in Minnesota, but it did not foresee he would be the only undefeated quarterback that isn’t named Patrick Mahomes.
Like the Commanders, the current pace isn’t sustainable, but when you get out to a 4-0 start, going 6-7 the rest of the season is probably going to get you into the playoffs. The Vikings play a league-average schedule the rest of the way and considering they’re an above-average team, 7-6 is more likely. That gives them a most-likely record of 11-6 per my model, and that’s going to give them a great shot at not only winning the NFC North but also contending for that coveted first-round bye.
Dallas Cowboys
Preseason playoff odds: 75%
Current playoff odds: 44%
Former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn left to take over in Washington, but I didn’t think there would be too much of a drop-off on the defensive side under new DC Mike Zimmer. He still had Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Trevon Diggs. I didn’t expect a top-five unit, but I was confident they could be an above-average defense to pair with a top-10 offense.
I was wrong.
The Cowboys defense ranks 25th in EPA/play, per TruMedia, and that’s with games agains the Cleveland Browns and Giants. Against the two competent offenses (New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens), there was very little resistance. To add salt to the wound, Parsons and Lawrence both suffered what’s likely to be multiple-week injuries Thursday against the Giants. I don’t know what the answers are on defense without their two best pass rushers but I can tell you it won’t be a pretty sight.
QB Dak Prescott signed an extension hours before the team’s opener for an AAV of $60 million dollars, and he’s going to have to earn every dollar if the Cowboys want to make the playoffs with this defense. And that will be tough playing behind a suspect offensive line that has been OK in protection but hasn’t created much running room. My model currently has the Cowboys more likely to miss the playoffs, but that could change depending on how long the Parsons and Lawrence injuries affect their defense.
Leading off a new batch of “The Playcallers”: Chicago Bears asst. GM Ian Cunningham
His background in education and psychology, self-awareness in decision-making, how arguments can be beneficial, the timing of team building and much more!
🟢 https://t.co/CtRVP2riY3— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) October 1, 2024
Cincinnati Bengals
Preseason playoff odds: 73%
Current playoff odds: 37%
You can’t talk about being wrong about the Bengals without mentioning that another slow start led to them a home loss to the New England Patriots. They had injuries on offense, yes, but they got off to their third consecutive 0-2 start under Zac Taylor and their second consecutive 1-3 start. The Bengals can rally back, but they’ve certainly made things hard on themselves again.
So, where was my model wrong on the Bengals? The defense.
The Bengals are the fourth-worst defense by EPA/play this year, and they’ve played the Patriots and Carolina Panthers. That’s, uh, not ideal. Again, I didn’t expect the Bengals to be world-beaters on that side of the ball, but being at the bottom of the league does surprise me a bit. Trey Hendrickson was banged up Sunday against Carolina, but I think signs are pointing to him not missing any time. That’s huge news. Why? Well, the Bengals have the fifth-worst pressure rate this season, and Hendrickson is by far their best pass rusher.
Cincinnati’s defense could bounce back — they have the 28th-easiest schedule remaining — but this is going to have to be in QB Joe Burrow’s hands. Even if the defense gets back to around league average, the AFC is strong and sitting at 1-3 makes things even tougher. My model has their most likely record as 8-9, which likely doesn’t earn them a playoff bid. However, a win at home this week against the Ravens could change their outlook fast. But if the defense plays like it has up until this point, a 1-4 start seems likely, and that might be too big of a hole to climb out of.
Philadelphia Eagles
Preseason playoff odds: 78%
Current playoff odds: 52%
The Eagles are in the same boat as the Cowboys. I expected the offense to bounce back from last year’s late collapse, and I thought new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio could get the defense to around league average.
The offense was on the right track to “get right,” but injuries to receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have made things difficult the past few weeks. The Eagles have a bye this week, which is perfect timing, as I think Brown will return in Week 6. Unfortunately, I don’t think Jalen Hurts is a QB who can make an offense hum without a stellar supporting cast. So, getting his main two targets back, alongside a healthier O-line and running back Saquon Barkley, will be paramount.
Now, for where I was wrong.
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The defense is still not good. Fangio had a great game plan to slow down the Saints offense, but part of that has to be attributed to the Saints offensive line getting banged up in that game because the following week, the Eagles defense made Bucs QB Baker Mayfield look like an All-Pro. The Eagles defense ranks 26th in EPA/play which is concerning because they’re No. 6 in the league in limiting their opponents to no gain or a negative play. How can that be possible? Well, they’re fifth worst at giving up plays of 10-plus yards.
The Eagles are currently about a coin flip to make the playoffs, and that’s mostly boosted by a projection of getting Brown and Smith back in the next two weeks. I’m not sure the defense can get to average, but maybe familiarity with Fangio’s system as the season goes along will fast track improvement. On the bright side, the Eagles project to have the easiest remaining schedule in the entire NFL.
(Photo of Jayden Daniels: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
