ANN ARBOR, Mich. — No matter how you slice it, Michigan’s passing game has been among the worst in the FBS this season and arguably the worst among Power 4 programs.
The Wolverines rank No. 130 out of 134 FBS teams in passing yards per game, No. 130 in yards per attempt and No. 123 in passing plays of 10 yards or more. They are No. 132 in pass efficiency on intermediate throws and No. 112 on throws that travel 20 yards or more through the air, according to TruMedia. Michigan ranks No. 127 in EPA (expected points added) per dropback at -0.21, also according to TruMedia, and starting quarterback Alex Orji is 1-for-11 on passes that travel 11 yards or more downfield.
Michigan’s struggles in the passing game have ratcheted up pressure on first-year offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. The Wolverines are 4-1 thanks to a strong defense and the exploits of running back Kalel Mullings, but unless the Wolverines can go full Iowa Mode, they aren’t likely to contend in the Big Ten with a passing game that’s producing 115 yards per game and trending downward. According to The Athletic’s projections, Michigan has just a 3 percent chance of winning the Big Ten title and a 9 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff heading into Saturday night’s national championship rematch at Washington.
Here are five burning questions for Campbell as Michigan tries to restore its passing game to functionality.
How can Michigan create more explosive plays through the air?
Michigan is 2-0 since Orji took over as the starting quarterback, but the Wolverines’ inability to sustain drives opened the door for USC and Minnesota to make comebacks. Michigan has had nine three-and-outs the past two weeks, plus a four-play drive that ended with an interception and a one-play drive that ended with a fumble.
As Campbell noted Wednesday, it’s hard to sustain drives without mixing in explosive plays. The Wolverines haven’t had many of those, and the ones they’ve had were mostly on the ground.
“The explosiveness in the pass game needs to show up so we get faster drives,” Campbell said. “Do we need to score in 1 minute, 2 minutes like these Air Raid teams? No, that’s not what we’re asking for. It’s easier in seven-, eight-play drives when you get explosive plays in the throw game. We can’t rely on the backbone of the run game to create those explosives.”
Michigan’s wide receivers have produced three receptions of 20 yards or more through five games, all against Texas when Davis Warren was at quarterback. There are things Michigan can do with motions and formations to scheme its wide receivers open, Campbell said, but ultimately it’s up to the receivers to get separation and Orji to work through his progressions and find the open man.
“We know we’re going to get challenged in man coverage, and we’ve got to learn to separate,” Campbell said.
One player who hasn’t had trouble getting open is tight end Colston Loveland, who returned last week on a limited snap count after missing the USC game with a shoulder injury. Even with increased attention from defenses, Loveland has gotten open on all but one of his routes this season, Campbell said.
Why didn’t Orji play more early in the season?
Campbell used one of Jim Harbaugh’s favorite phrases Wednesday, noting that players get better at football by playing football. Which raises the question: Why didn’t Michigan give Orji more opportunities to play early in the season?
The Fresno State and Arkansas State games could have provided opportunities for Orji to work through his growing pains and establish his confidence as a passer. Instead, he played sparingly in Michigan’s first three games before replacing Warren as the starter against USC, meaning his acclimation period has come in high-stakes games against Big Ten opponents.
Campbell didn’t second-guess the decision to open the season with Warren as the starter. The plan was to get Orji more snaps in nonconference play, Campbell said, but timing didn’t feel right with Michigan in a tight game against Fresno State and trailing big against Texas.
“All those games we had the opportunity to step on the opponent’s throat, and we didn’t do that,” Campbell said. “We need to make sure we start taking care of that so we can develop other guys on the team.”
Is Jack Tuttle an option?
At the start of preseason camp, Campbell said he expected Tuttle to contend for the starting job after missing the spring. But Tuttle, a seventh-year player who transferred from Indiana, wasn’t healthy enough to challenge Orji or Warren in camp, and his status has remained up in the air.
Tuttle was listed as questionable on Michigan’s pregame injury report for the USC game and had no injury designation for last week’s game against Minnesota. That would imply he’s healthy and available, but Campbell didn’t give the impression that Tuttle is pushing Orji for the starting job.
“I’m not going to fully disclose on injuries, but Jack is progressing in a very, very good manner,” he said. “He’s getting some reps here and there.”
What’s the plan for Jadyn Davis?
As Michigan’s passing game has sputtered, a common question is why the Wolverines haven’t considered turning to Davis, a promising freshman who was ranked just outside the top 100 of the 247Sports Composite rankings.
Campbell explained the decision by quoting Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell’s comments on the dangers of putting a young quarterback in a bad situation and hindering his development.
“Nowadays, with social media and everything, everybody wants this instant gratification of a freshman coming in and playing,” Campbell said. “I think Kevin O’Connell said it best: Organizations fail young quarterbacks, not young quarterbacks failing. You’ve got to make sure he’s developed and ready for the situation.”
Coach Sherrone Moore was asked earlier in the season if Michigan planned to redshirt Davis and said no final decisions had been made. At least for the time being, Michigan doesn’t see Davis as the immediate answer to its passing woes.
“He’s going to have a bright future at the University of Michigan,” Campbell said. “Whether that’s as fast as the outside perceived media expectation is, that’s not for us to make a rash decision based on that. We’re going to put him in that situation when he’s ready to go play.”
How much of Michigan’s struggles fall on Campbell?
This question is going to become more pressing if Michigan’s struggles in the passing game continue. Promoting Campbell to offensive coordinator was a logical move given his success with J.J. McCarthy and his role in helping Michigan win a national championship. Campbell has a huge challenge in replacing 10 offensive starters, including a top-10 pick at quarterback, two starting wide receivers and Michigan’s entire offensive line. Play-calling hasn’t been Michigan’s primary problem, but the Wolverines also haven’t figured out many ways to manufacture passing yards.
Campbell is well aware of the criticisms of Michigan’s offense. The Wolverines believe they have answers, but the answers are only as good as the results on the field. Right now, those results aren’t looking great.
“When the plays are called, we’ve got to go execute them as well,” Campbell said. “There’s a catch-22 there. We have plays on the call sheet to be creative that everybody wants. When you’re not executing at a high level and moving the football, they’re hard to get off the call sheet. Once you start rolling first downs, you’re able to call those things.”
(Photo: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
