There aren’t any true marquee games this week, but that doesn’t matter to my projection model. The numbers come out regardless of how much hype there is, or isn’t for a game.
In the only top-25 matchup of the week, my model likes Missouri by 1.5 points, going against the spread of Texas A&M -2.5. It also likes Washington by 1.5 points against Michigan in the rematch of last year’s national title game. Central Florida at Florida is a true pick ’em according to my model so that one should be close.
For context, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on Week 6 of the college football season, check out my updated CFP projections and my Week 6 best bets, which are based on my model’s projections.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football Week 6 score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas State |
|
|
58.5
|
57
|
 Troy |
13
|
13.5
|
|
|
 Sam Houston |
|
|
47
|
49.5
|
 UTEP |
7
|
10.5
|
|
|
 J’ville State |
|
|
51.5
|
49
|
 Kennesaw St. |
14
|
16.5
|
|
|
 Houston |
|
|
49
|
51.5
|
 TCU |
-16
|
-16.5
|
|
|
 Michigan St. |
|
|
53
|
52.5
|
 Oregon |
-25.5
|
-23.5
|
|
|
 Syracuse |
|
|
55
|
58.5
|
 UNLV |
-3
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 UCLA |
|
|
51
|
46.5
|
 Penn State |
-28.5
|
-27.5
|
|
|
 Missouri |
|
|
46
|
48.5
|
 Texas A&M |
1.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 SMU |
|
|
50.5
|
56.5
|
 Louisville |
-10
|
-7
|
|
|
 Purdue |
|
|
49
|
45.5
|
 Wisconsin |
-10
|
-14
|
|
|
 UMass |
|
|
50.5
|
44
|
 No. Illinois |
-15.5
|
-17.5
|
|
|
 Boston Coll. |
|
|
48
|
53
|
 Virginia |
-2
|
-1
|
|
|
 Pittsburgh |
|
|
63
|
64.5
|
 UNC |
1
|
3
|
|
|
 Army |
|
|
54.5
|
50.5
|
 Tulsa |
10
|
12.5
|
|
|
 Wake Forest |
|
|
56.5
|
54.5
|
 NC State |
-3
|
-5.5
|
|
|
 Navy |
|
|
37
|
37
|
 Air Force |
9.5
|
10
|
|
|
 Tulane |
|
|
56.5
|
55.5
|
 UAB |
13
|
15.5
|
|
|
 Western Mich. |
|
|
58
|
56.5
|
 Ball State |
7
|
9.5
|
|
|
 Iowa |
|
|
41
|
45.5
|
 Ohio State |
-19
|
-19.5
|
|
|
 Auburn |
|
|
49
|
52.5
|
 Georgia |
-22
|
-24.5
|
|
|
 Ole Miss |
|
|
51
|
53.5
|
 So. Carolina |
10
|
9.5
|
|
|
 Indiana |
|
|
44
|
41.5
|
 Northwestern |
9.5
|
13.5
|
|
|
 Temple |
|
|
51.5
|
50.5
|
 UConn |
-14
|
-17
|
|
|
 Virginia Tech |
|
|
52
|
49.5
|
 Stanford |
8
|
8.5
|
|
|
 App. State |
|
|
61.5
|
58.5
|
 Marshall |
-1
|
-3.5
|
|
|
 Miami (OH) |
|
|
44
|
44.5
|
 Toledo |
-7
|
-6.5
|
|
|
 Bowling Green |
|
|
51
|
51.5
|
 Akron |
14
|
15.5
|
|
|
 East Carolina |
|
|
48
|
47
|
 Charlotte |
8.5
|
8.5
|
|
|
 Rutgers |
|
|
43
|
40.5
|
 Nebraska |
-5.5
|
-7
|
|
|
 West Virginia |
|
|
62
|
64.5
|
 Oklahoma St. |
-4
|
-3
|
|
|
 Alabama |
|
|
55.5
|
54.5
|
 Vanderbilt |
22
|
23.5
|
|
|
 Colorado St. |
|
|
48.5
|
47.5
|
 Oregon State |
-14
|
-11.5
|
|
|
 Clemson |
|
|
46
|
46.5
|
 Florida State |
14
|
14.5
|
|
|
 Utah State |
|
|
61
|
66.5
|
 Boise State |
-23
|
-26.5
|
|
|
 Old Dominion |
|
|
50
|
53.5
|
 Coastal Caro. |
-9
|
-5.5
|
|
|
 South Alabama |
|
|
60.5
|
62
|
 Arkansas St. |
0.5
|
3.5
|
|
|
 James Madison |
|
|
45.5
|
48.5
|
 ULM |
15
|
16.5
|
|
|
 Louisiana |
|
|
56
|
57.5
|
 Southern Miss |
12
|
14.5
|
|
|
 Tennessee |
|
|
60
|
58.5
|
 Arkansas |
11
|
13.5
|
|
|
 Michigan |
|
|
40.5
|
41.5
|
 Washington |
-1.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 USC |
|
|
54
|
50.5
|
 Minnesota |
10
|
8
|
|
|
 Baylor |
|
|
47
|
45
|
 Iowa State |
-10
|
-11.5
|
|
|
 Nevada |
|
|
48.5
|
51.5
|
 San Jose St. |
-7.5
|
-7
|
|
|
 UCF |
|
|
62.5
|
61.5
|
 Florida |
0
|
2.5
|
|
|
 Duke |
|
|
52
|
54.5
|
 Georgia Tech |
-8.5
|
-9
|
|
|
 Kansas |
|
|
54
|
50.5
|
 Arizona State |
-1.5
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Hawai’i |
|
|
47
|
49.5
|
 San Diego St. |
-6
|
-2.5
|
|
|
 Miami |
|
|
58
|
53.5
|
 California |
9.5
|
10.5
|
|
|
 Texas Tech |
|
|
65.5
|
64
|
 Arizona |
-7.5
|
-6.5
|
|
|
(Photo of Will Rogers: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)
